True, but Alabama is one of the most difficult places to pull off such a win. In special and state elections, there’s been a definite swing towards the Democratic side with districts that are +15 or +20 R holding their seat by four or five points instead of twenty. Virginia just saw around fifteen Republicans lose their seats in the state legislature.
Alabama voted for Trump +28 and, while Strange (or virtually anyone else) would have no doubt won, I wouldn’t have been shocked to see him win it by +5 or +7 instead of +25. Moore’s candidacy took Democrats over the hump but there’s a Democratic headwind blowing that got them up the hill in the first place. To reverse it, if this was a typical year without the Trump/GOP governing fiasco, I wouldn’t have been surprised (but disappointed) to see Moore win by a handful of points despite the rest of his candidacy just because the state is so deeply red.
Absolutely, Democrats shouldn’t be complacent (and it doesn’t appear that they are) but they should be optimistic and working full time to take complete advantage of what’s happening as a result of Trump’s presidency.
In 538’s post-mortem, Nate apportions the 30-point Alabama swing as follows:
[ul]
[li]10 points for the national mood (based on generic D/R Congressional poll).[/li][li]10 points for Roy Moore’s extreme positions in general (the Bannon effect, based on polls before the scandal after removing the generic D/R). [/li][li]10 points for the scandal (based on the post-scandal swing in polls).[/li][/ul]
So taking out the scandal, this is a warning for Republicans to watch out for those extreme candidates unless you’re sitting at +20 R or better.
Geez. The chance Bernie would have won was tiny. The smear & fake news campaign would have been brutal. The Kremlin would have come out with a Communist Party card, stuff about his wifes’ financial dealings, etc.
Notwithstanding the federal effects of this election, Alabama should be better off now. Moore is a part of what’s been wrong with the state since the 80s. If, as it can be assumed, his political career is dead and buried, the negative influence he’s had on the state is lessened, especially now that the Foundation for Moral Law is under the microscope by the IRS.
You know, in a small way, this statement is almost as bad as Roy Moore saying that things were good when they had slavery.
“Yeah, ALabama may have been segregationist and had a small lynching problem, but they voted Democrat! Not sure how Alabama went wrong starting in the 80s!”
The fact is, Alabama has had a toxic social and political culture since they started calling it “Alabama”. It’s a state where both whites and blacks vote as minorities, whites 80-90% for Republicans, blacks 90-99% for Democrats. That’s just not healthy.
Anyway, Doug Jones will have to be by far the most conservative Democratic member of the Senate in order to get a full term. As in, way to the right of Manchin.
Alabama wanted a Republican. The Republican was unacceptable. They’ll want a Republican in 2020 too.
Yes, it’s just like you Republicans recently crowing “A black man got elected President! Racism is over and we don’t have to get scolded about it anymore!”
He could, but that would make life very difficult for any other Democrat trying to get elected in Alabama. The reason Democrats aren’t competitive in the South but Republicans can still win in the NE is because Republicans run as moderates and vote(or govern) as moderates. Democrats run as moderates but are always there when the leadership needs their votes.
Jones will have to be more like Manchin, less like Mary Landrieu or Blanche Lincoln or Ben Nelson or(insert 40 other fake Blue Dogs here).
In 2020, the Democrats will have a golden opportunity to take it all. If Doug Jones votes as a liberal Democrat, they can write off Alabama’s Senate seat. And possibly more red Senate seats than that. If there’s one thing Republicans know how to do, it’s spread the message of “campaigns one way in Arkansas, votes another way in DC.”
Then explain what you meant. What’s been wrong with Alabama since the 80s? Saying that something has been wrong with Alabama since the 80s implies things were better before that.
According to the 538 blog, Jones essentially campaigned as a standard Democrat, not as a conservative, so he should be free to vote the party line on most matters.
The 80s is when Moore began his rise to prominence. I’m not sure how you think I should blame Moore for things that happened in Alabama before he was born or before he began his political career.
Moore is an infection. Not the only infection suffered by Alabama, not by a long shot, but he was a big one, and getting rid of that poison can only help the state join the 21st century. Unless a bigger infection comes along, of course.
