I suspect it won’t matter much anyway. If everything goes the Democrats’ way and they win the Senate in 2018 then it’ll be by a seat. They won’t be passing anything Trump would sign or getting enough Republicans to hit 66% and impeach Trump. It’ll just be about stopping judicial nominees and preventing Trump from doing more dumb shit while the Republicans rubber stamp it. Jones won’t be put on the spot to be the deciding vote on the “Turn Aborted Fetuses Into Solar Panels” bill or anything else even mildly controversial because Trump wouldn’t sign it anyway. He’ll be voting on post office names and legislation that’ll already have 85 votes.
If the GOP keeps the Senate, it won’t matter much from that side either. There’s no value to Jones keeping his seat if he’s the deciding vote on cutting corporate taxes to 1% and banning Planned Parenthood. Jones may “have to” vote like Manchin but Manchin isn’t supporting the GOP on their every-vote-counts legislation either.
He did indeed campaign as a mostly mainstream Democrat, so it’s not a deception in his case to vote that way. And that’s fine. But it also means he has to run against a non-awful Republican(hopefully) in 2020, and that will be pretty much impossible for Jones.
Fair enough, but I think Moore is a symptom of Alabama’s toxic culture. He’s the worst of the worst, hopefully, but Alabama has produced a rogue’s gallery in it’s time. Jeff Sessions is pretty bad himself, as is Richard Shelby. And before that, well, if there’s a hell there’s probably a special section for Deep South political leaders.
Of course he’s free to, but like adaher, I suspect that if he does he’ll lose handily to a standard Republican in 2020. FWIW, I suspect he’ll lose anyways, even if he does rack up a voting record somewhere to the right of Joe Manchin.
Mmmmmm, never underestimate the power of a popular politician perceived as a decent man. He just needs to avoid votes that seriously piss people off there. Republicans will make him take as many tough votes as possible.
You’re probably right, but a lot depends on who the non-awful Republican might be. If it’s someone who is primarily a social conservative type, not an economic-growth type, then Jones might have a chance–if he’s seen as a business-friendly Democrat. People younger than 40 in Alabama really want jobs in the state. If Doug Jones appears to be a man who can bring in jobs and he can reach out to the African American community, he might have a shot against a Trumpist type.
But if the Republican candidate is truly moderate–like Tommy Battle, who is currently running for Gov–then he hasn’t a chance no matter what. He might as well just dedicate these next few years to doing what he feels is best for his state and not worrying about re-election.
This I doubt. For one thing, Jones knows he is a half termer. There is no point to suck up to Republicans because any one of them not named Roy Moore would have beaten him. Tough votes? There are no tough votes in the Senate. McConnell, with rare exception, only allows votes on things he knows will pass. In addition, in Jones’ last two years in the Senate, Schumer will be majority leader and the votes will be on things that Jones will want to vote yes on.
Democrats will probably not win the Senate in 2018. Jones will probably have to vote primarily on Republican legislation, which means voting against Republican legislation.
There’s a business-friendly tax reform bill out there? The only one I’ve heard anything about is the one that appears to be designed to siphon the contents of potential customers’ wallets to a few kleptocrats and kick off a Trump Slump.
That’s not what people will focus on. What they will focus on are things like bringing new plants into Alabama. New corporate headquarters. New industries. Median **household **income in Alabama is $34,135. People don’t want abstract ideas of more hospitable business environments. They wants construction project down the road with a sign saying “now hiring”.
Alabama politicians hand recruit industries to come to the state. They push big military bills because a lot of that work is done in Alabama. That’s what voters will look to–not shifts in national corporate tax rates.
In your reading of left-wing talking points, you may have missed that it cuts the corporate tax rate to 21%. Hard to see how that’s not “business-friendly”.
I really doubt that Jones has any realistic chance against almost any Republican in 2020, because Alabama. Although I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Alabama GOP base being dumb and stubborn enough to nominate Moore again, or someone just as loony. These people are all about the nobility of lost causes, dontchaknow. But unless the Republican gets outed as a pedophile a few weeks before the election, Jones only wins in a universe where the Democrats win EVERYWHERE and end up with a comfortable majority anyway.
Some have debated whether it would have been better for Democrats, long-term, to win or lose this seat. I think it’s pretty clearly better that we won it. It makes it a whole lot more likely that we’ll take the Senate in 2018, which is a big deal. We almost certainly won’t still hold onto this seat in 2020, but that’s OK, because by then, we’ll have enough other opportunities to reinforce a lead.
On the other hand, the upside to a Moore win would be that we could tie the rest of the Republican party to him. But we can still do that, anyway. Win or lose, he’s still the guy the party ran and backed.
Oh sure, BUSINESS friendly. But it is WIDELY known by actual economists that the money that will be gained though this tax break will be used primarily for stock buy-backs in order to please institutional investors and holders of stock options (corporate executives). If you think these tax cuts will translate to jobs, then you are in a tiny, tiny minority.
This tax cut money is clearly, obviously and unequivocally destined to get into the hands of the very rich. Not just the 1%, but the VERY rich. And that is what this tax bill is designed to do, no matter how much flag waving you do, or bunting you put on it.