This seems to be, by far, the warmest winter in my long memory. Across the Midwest and the Eastern US it will in the upper 70’s tomorrow and it’s only the Ides of March.
Does data suggest what this may mean for the Spring and Summer weather. Will it affect the growing season? Are there things we should be considering in regard to early planting? Will a sudden deep freeze ruin trees and plants that my have started their growth season prematurely? Should we expect drought or rain in the Spring and Summer?
This is a “this year” GQ. Let’s keep the climate change debate out of it. Thanks.
Probably the best is the 90-day fire weather predictive forecasts issued by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The March-June forecast (PDF warning) is a place to start.
As far as planting goes, you should still wait until the danger of frost has passed (too late for most wild/outdoor plants and trees which have started growing around here); the weather pattern could easily change. I remember that there was a bad freeze here a few years back, and it came after unusually warm winter/early spring which made it much worse (normally there are still freezes until about mid April or so).
ETA - Here is a report on the freeze I mentioned, which was in April 2007.
I am anticipating a late freeze. We had the biggest snowfall of the season in October, so maybe the next one will be in April. I know how unpredictable the weather can be. That’s what worries me. I hate to think that the warm winter will mess up the growing season during the late Spring and Summer . If there is a chance of that, how should we prepare?
I have experienced mild winters but I have can’t remember anything as warm as this has been. I always anticipate paybacks. The early tornadoes in the Midwest may be part of that but I would like to know if the weather models can give us an insight as to what we might anticipate.
There have already been consequences for agriculture - for example, peach trees need a certain number of cold nights to flower and fruit, and in some places they may not have gotten enough of them.
Maple syrup production is affected similarly. So far, the local producers have started tapping early and some are using vacuum pumps to augment the natural flow. They expect the taste to be a little different, and since the sugar content is lower than usual, they will have to boil the sap longer.
it is wise to always expect your normal last frost date for air temperature. ground temperatures also have a huge effect on planted crops, this season there wasn’t as much snow over much of the USA, so the ground is likely to be warmer quicker.
most of the USA will likely be normal precipitation for April, May, June.
south and east of the USA will likely be higher temperatures for April, May, June. most of the rest normal. few areas (Washington and Alaska) have chance of lower, which is a very small area.
the jet stream has dropped far south in the western USA giving the abnormal cold to the far southwest. it has also gone far north east of the Rockies giving summer temperatures while still winter, temperature records are for days being beaten by about 20F.
I’m predicting a population boom of a lot of insects. We’re already “enjoying” the most crane flies I’ve ever seen. I’m willing to bet cold hard cash that we’ll get a shit-ton of mosquitoes, and probably a cricket population explosion as well.
Interesting prediction. In the Northeast we are seeing insects that aren’t normally out this time of year. But then, I am predicting a late blast of cold weather and a major snowstorm before April 15th. We’ll see. If that happens could that kill off those early bugs and actually lead to a reduced population of insects? Then there will be the crisis of starving bats (and I’m not talking about the NY Mets).
This is a GQ so anybody with scientific knowledge of this kind of situation, please chime in.