Clean Sweep! Obama - Feb 9 Caucuses/Primaries

[Phlosphr]

[QUOTE=silenus]
I’m not going to believe that until she’s beheaded, staked through the heart, mouth filled with garlic, lips sewn shut with silver wire and buried at a crossroads at a new moon by nuns.

But from your keyboard to Og’s Mighty Ears!
[/QUOTE]

Well then they’ve already made it to the crossroads…

[Spoke]

[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
Just heard that on NPR..Interesting - certainly can’t be a positive when the campaign manager get’s fired. Don’t know yet how it will effect her campaign.
Hey Shayna!
[/QUOTE]

Eh.

Bill shook up his campaign staff more than once in '92.

[Onomatopoeia]

Is it true that caucuses are still under way in Maine? I’m reading that Portland is not done. How are they reporting results if people are still voting?

[D-bear]

[QUOTE=DMark]
Most Democrats I know actually like Hillary, but I think they are passionate about Obama. That just might make the difference.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Triskadecamus]
Obama would get my vote against McCain.
[/QUOTE]

I support Hillary, and I am a registered Democrat who would vote for McCain before I cast a vote for Obama. I know that the people I congregate with feel the same. FTR I’m in colorado transplanted from Michigan.

Flame away, but that is how my vote goes, my mind is made up.

[Richard_Parker]

[QUOTE=D-bear]
I support Hillary, and I am a registered Democrat who would vote for McCain before I cast a vote for Obama. I know that the people I congregate with feel the same. FTR I’m in colorado transplanted from Michigan.

Flame away, but that is how my vote goes, my mind is made up.
[/QUOTE]

Congregate is an odd verb to have used. Are you talking about your church?

[pulykamell]

[QUOTE=D-bear]
I support Hillary, and I am a registered Democrat who would vote for McCain before I cast a vote for Obama.
[/QUOTE]

I actually don’t know very many people who go this way, but certainly they’re out there. On the other hand, I know quite a lot of Democrats who would vote McCain over Clinton, which puzzles me somewhat.

[BrainGlutton]

[QUOTE=D-bear]
I support Hillary, and I am a registered Democrat who would vote for McCain before I cast a vote for Obama. I know that the people I congregate with feel the same. FTR I’m in colorado transplanted from Michigan..
[/QUOTE]

What do you – and they – find objectionable about Obama?

[silenus]

Over brunch this morning, I almost convinced my dyed-in-the-wool, slightly-to-the-right-of-Nixon, Republican mother to vote Obama. She’s still holding her nose and supporting McCain, but she doesn’t like it. I think another fews brunches and I’ll have her convinced.

[OttoDaFe]

[QUOTE=silenus]
I’m not going to believe that until she’s beheaded, staked through the heart, mouth filled with garlic, lips sewn shut with silver wire and buried at a crossroads at a new moon by nuns.

But from your keyboard to Og’s Mighty Ears!
[/QUOTE]
But as any video game veteran will tell you, you have to do it three times before the opponent finally gives up the ghost (unless the opponent is a ghost).

Even cynical ol’ me is beginning to . . . dare I say it? . . . hope. I’ve backed the losing horse in matters political* that I’m deathly afraid of delivering the kiss of death to Obama’s campaign, but I have a feeling I’ll be on the proverbial pins&needles from here on out.

*I once backed Tsongas, then switched my allegiance to Dukakis, fer cryin’ out loud!

[Anomalous_Reading]

HRC is on the ropes and needs to LOOK like she has momentum - and soon. Her speech last night sounded uncertain of her candidacy, let alone Presidency. His, however, was confident, inspiring.

If she doesn’t get momentum and positive press soon, the money will dry up. While that’s not the be all and end all. McCain could make it without much money, but that was last year. This is the actual election year. Low money at this point CAN be lethal.

She doesn’t have the charisma of others. Or she doesn’t consistently.

And she has a battery of arguments she can’t make at Obama because he can put her on the defensive since she is far less disclosing of information…

Early March just might be IT. I, for one, would welcome that.

Si se puede!

[Phlosphr]

[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading]
<snip>

Si se puede!
[/QUOTE]

Mexican President Felipe Calderon is coming to the US and is not speaking with any of the candidates or President Goofy. He’s making stops in major cities to try and shape the immigration debate during the presidentical race. However, it was noted that Calderon was using verbage almost exactly matching Barack Obama’s stance on Immigration.

@Felipe Calderon

And in a pre-trip interview with the Los Angeles-based Spanish-language newspaper Hoy, Calderon called on the next U.S. president to have a “broader vision — the ability to analyze the migration phenomenon more calmly and objectively, less emotionally and more rationally.”

[Onomatopoeia]

Hey! They stopped showing the televised results on CNN? Must I wait until that xenophobic maniac Lou Dobbs’ show ends before the numbers are shown again?

Poor, poor Lou Dobbs. To think I used to respect that fool.

[Jophiel]

[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia]
Hey! They stopped showing the televised results on CNN? Must I wait until that xenophobic maniac Lou Dobbs’ show ends before the numbers are shown again?
[/QUOTE]
There hasn’t been an update for 40min but, from what I understand, some of the caucus sites don’t close until 8pm Eastern.

I’m optimistic but I worry when I can’t see the country returns. I’m always waiting for the Missouri Effect like in the 2006 Senate race and the Feb 5th Primaries where they called it for the Republicans/Clinton until St. Louis was counted and flipped the result to the Democrats/Obama at 2am. I imagine the turnout in Maine was low enough due to the weather that it wouldn’t take too much to shift the percentages.

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia]

Poor, poor Lou Dobbs. To think I used to respect that fool.
[/QUOTE]

And now you pity him?

[Onomatopoeia]

[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy]
And now you pity him?
[/QUOTE]
Well, actually, yes. Yes I do. He’s obviously off his meds. Won’t someone refill Lou’s prescription?

[Jophiel]

Someone is not a happy camper, per CNN

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton has replaced her campaign manager with a longtime adviser, Maggie Williams, the campaign announced Sunday.

Patti Solis Doyle has been reassigned to a senior adviser’s job, the Clinton campaign announced in a memo to its staff.

The move came a day after Sen. Barack Obama swept three Democratic contests, giving him considerable momentum heading into Sunday’s Maine caucuses and three primaries Tuesday.

[Onomatopoeia]

MSNBC has called Maine for Obama!

[Shayna]

[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading]

Early March just might be IT. I, for one, would welcome that.

Si se puede!
[/QUOTE]
Anomalous, make sure you tell all your friends and family about the caucuses that follow the polls closing! This is critically, critically important.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/8/17340/43669

There is no Statewide primary. Absolutely no delegates will be awarded on the basis of the statewide vote. That is 0 delegates. None.

<snip>

Collectively, 126 delegates will be allocated in 31 seperate primary elections in every one of Texas’ 31 State Senate Districts. . . The number assigned to each State Senate District were allocated proportionally by each State Senate Districts’ average vote for John Kerry in 2004 and for Chris Bell (Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate) in 2006.

<snip>

While there is no Statewide Texas Primary, there is a Statewide Texas Caucus, which will allocate 67 delegates 42 of these (“At Large Delegates”) will ultimately come from precinct caucuses, while 25 will be PLEOs: party/elected officials. PLEOs will be pledged delegates, not superdelegates, so in practical terms they amount to the same thing. These caucuses will occur on the precinct level, and are similar to the Iowa Caucuses - except practically nobody knows that they exist.

1. Precinct Caucuses will be held in every precinct in Texas at 7:15 after the polls close. If the caucuses were held today, I imagine that in the vast majority of precincts literally nobody would show up, because nobody knows about them. For every 15 votes that Chris Bell received in a given precinct, that precinct is entitled to send 1 delegate to the State Senate District/County Caucuses.

2. At the State Senate District/County Caucuses (March 29th), one delegate will be elected to the State Convention Caucus for every 12 precinct delegates. My understanding after reading the rules is that this is a strict cutoff without rounding, which means that a precinct with 12 precinct delegates (180-194 Chris Bell voters) will send the same number of delegates to the State convention as a precinct with 23 precinct delegates (345-359 Chris Bell voters) - both send 1 delegate, while a precinct with 361 Chris Bell voters would send 2 delegates to the State Convention. Precincts with fewer than 12 precinct delegates will be combined.

3. At the Texas State Convention (June 6th & 7th in Austin), Texas’ delegates to the National Democratic Convention will finally be assigned. 67 Delegates will be awarded proportionally among the caucus delegates that came from all the State Senate District/County Caucuses. So supposing that Obama gets 2/3 of those State Senate District/County Caucus Delegates, he would end up with 2/3 of the “At Large Delegates” and 2/3 of the PLEO delegates. That would mean that Obama would get 28 of 42 At Large Delegates, and Obama would get 17 of the 25 PLEO Delegates. In sum, that scenario would result in 45 Caucus-derived delegates for Obama, and 18 Caucus-derived delegates for Clinton.

It makes my head want to explode. If you can’t make heads nor tails out of that, the Star Telegram has an article about the process, here.

Texas has an unusual system of choosing delegates that involves both a primary and a caucus.

The system, which follows national party standards, is geared to ensure that all Democrats have a shot at making it to the convention and making their voice – and choice – heard.

“It’s very, very confusing in the way politics in general is confusing,” said Rebecca Deen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas in Arlington. “The Democratic National Convention has weighted the votes, but they want to make sure the people who participate get to weigh in.”

After polls close March 4, interested Republicans and Democrats will return to their voting precincts to begin precinct conventions.

<snip>

Texas will send 228 delegates to this year’s Democratic National Convention in Denver. Of those delegates, 126 will be assigned to vote for candidates based on election results.

An additional 35 will be superdelegates, made up mostly of high-ranking officials, who may back whichever candidate they choose. This year’s superdelegates include Fort Worth’s Jim Wright, former U.S. House speaker; Fort Worth’s Roy Laverne Brooks, vice chair of the Texas Democratic Party; and U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, whose district stretches from Hood and Johnson counties south to Grimes County.

The remaining 67 delegates will be chosen through the caucus system – with 42 being rank-and-file Democrats and 25 being party leaders and elected officials, according to a Lone Star Project report.

<snip>

As a result, Democrats who show up at the polls election night for precinct conventions will be choosing which delegates move forward to senatorial conventions.

But they’ll also be choosing which presidential candidate those delegates will be voting for, based on turnout in support for each candidate.

When people first show up, they’ll sign in, listing their name and presidential preference.

If a precinct has 10 delegates and 50 people show up – with 30 for Clinton and 20 for Barack Obama – then six delegates for Clinton and four for Obama will move on to the senatorial convention.

That’s why volunteers for Clinton and Obama will not only be pushing locals to vote – but also to show up for the caucus on election night.

“There are thousands of precinct conventions that will elect 25 percent of the delegates without respect to the primary results,” said Jason Smith, a Clinton volunteer in Tarrant County.

So spread the word!

Even given how convoluted the Texas voting system seems to be, it’s looking pretty good for Obama. Just this morning he was endorsed by the following Texas newspapers:

Austin American Statesman
El Paso News
Dallas Morning News
San Antonio Express

Si se peude!

[Indistinguishable]

Si se peude!

You guys might wanna put an accent in there…

[Anomalous_Reading]

[QUOTE=Shayna]
Anomalous, make sure you tell all your friends and family about the caucuses that follow the polls closing! This is critically, critically important. It makes my head want to explode. If you can’t make heads nor tails out of that, the Star Telegram has an article about the process, here. So spread the word!

Even given how convoluted the Texas voting system seems to be, it’s looking pretty good for Obama. Just this morning he was endorsed by the following Texas newspapers:

Austin American Statesman
El Paso News
Dallas Morning News
San Antonio Express

Si se peude!
[/QUOTE]
Given my geography and obvious leanings I am sure there’s something I can do in a practical way, but don’t know where to turn. Any suggestions?

My family is largely a religious right leaning family and I won’t be surprised if they all vote for Huckabee…