Thing is, that would be 28% of Florida GOP voters who voted against Trump. Not just 28% of Florida GOP voters who stayed home, so far, they haven’t been counted because, duh, they didn’t vote. Florida GOP who don’t support Trump and won’t go vote for him, you can count as one strike. Florida GOP voters who vote for Hillary, that’s two!
That gets into territory that I, for one, never even considered: Republicans who vote against Trump, not simply don’t support him.
You guys can believe whatever you like, but here’s some more background on the poll:
Those are things I’d typically see as red flags from a pollster.
You are missing that it is not a poll exactly, those are actual voters who actually voted. So, for that part it is not a guess, hence not much need for random sampling. AFAIK that was applied to the other part, where they did weight the chances of those others being surveyed of being likely voters.
The point was that so far, 28% of registered GOP voted Hillary here, that is very significant indeed.
Well, then, it will be all thoroughly debunked in a matter of hours. So, you got nothing to worry about. Unless it isn’t.
And this is a very unusual poll, in that the people have already voted, and nobody has to go sampling at random to find them. They already knew that these people had voted, so questions like “registered voter” and “likely voter” don’t enter into it.
If I’m puzzled by anything, its wondering why Florida Republican are so against Trump, and apparently so much more so than other Republicans? Unless they aren’t any more against him than any others, and this is just the first clue we got about that.
And even if it were only half true, only 14% of Florida Republican early voters not just sitting it out, but voting against him…that’s the distinction between a disaster and a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. I’m not greedy, disaster will do fine.
Hmmmm. Where do the candidates stand on the DH?
I think the Democrats have pretty much given up on anything but base moblization at this point.
How people voted is still secret, or up to them to share. That they voted has long been a matter of public record.
It’s a poll like election day exit polls are polls and subject to some of the same potential flaws.
As opposed to Trump doing what? Talking to a white audience about black people? Accusing Mexico of sending rapists and drug dealers? Demonizing Muslims, including a Gold Star family? (by the way, he didn’t know what a Gold Star family was).
Hey man, he did have a black guy in the audience – well, until he called him a thug and had him taken away by security.
*
“We’re gonna do well with the blacks. Where’s my African American? There he is! Everyone clap! Oh wait, he’s a thug. Guards, get him!”*
It is in “democracies” like Iraq as well. Sure, there is only one name on the ballot, but nearly 100% of the people would show up to cast their vote, largely because they would also keep a list of who voted and who didn’t. They could claim to be a stronger democracy than the United States is.
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Sad news today out of Iowa, with two officers apparently killed in an ambush attack.
I normally wouldn’t post this as part of a political campaign thread but I do think that this is something that has quietly become a major election issue. I have recently seen some Trump signs that read “Trump: The Law and Order Candidate.” And I think that he’s been playing to this (white) appeal to authoritarianism. I also suspect that this is in no small part factoring into some of the recent odd behavior from some within the FBI.
I reiterate that I haven’t necessarily jumped on the anti-Comey bandwagon. I don’t necessarily think the FBI leaks and dumps are a product of Comey but from activists within the agency who are probably hyper-partisan and trying to push Comey into a corner. Now having said that, Comey is on record as battling with the more progressive media outlets, Black Lives Matter, the Democrats, and the DOJ in pushing hard against criticism of the police. Comey is not actually a police officer but a conservative prosecutor, which might also factor into his public behavior. As a “civilian” of sorts within the FBI, he might feel extra pressure to defend his officers and all officers in public. And to keep morale even he might find it difficult to push back against activists under him. I’m not making excuses for him - it’s his job to get activists under control. But I could understand where he’s coming from.
And again, it wasn’t Comey’s decision to ignore the federal policies and the advice of federal security officials to set up government email on private servers – that’s on Clinton. Nor did Comey decide to make that practice the centerpiece of a political witch hunt – that’s on Republicans. Nor did he decide to take pics of Anthony Weiner’s wee wee and send them across the Internet. Nor did he decide to retain an advisor who inexplicably remained married to someone like Weiner who was clearly not right in the head – that’s also on Clinton. Comey’s caught in the middle in uncharted waters.
Trump has made an effort to reach all voters and he’s basically been laughed at for doing it. Not that the people laughing are wrong, he’s terrible at it, but he has at least made an effort. For Clinton to think that the last eight years has been wonderful makes sense given what her strategy has been throughout this campaign, but it’s not going to win anyone but Obama fans over.
The Cubans here are mostly R voters. And don’t think too highly of Trump’s racist and anti-immigrant rhetoric.
So *if *these early FL results are predictive of anything nationwide they’re predictive that Trump will do very poorly among non-white and immigrant Republicans. In some parts of the country those are rare birds indeed. Down here they’re like seagulls.
It might be more specific to Florida since Trump also violated the Cuba embargo.
I have a neighbor and friend who’s a retired LEO. Rose to the rank of Captain in his state-level agency, so a middle manager, not just a beat cop. Good guy overall, and not as burnt by the career as many.
A couple months ago he sent around a blast-cast in favor of Trump. It can be summarized as “Obama has declared war on the rank and file police. Clinton is more of the same. Soon you’ll be patrolling with no body armor and no sidearm if they have their way. Vote Trump; he’s for the police, not against them.” It also had several links to police-centric messageboards and blogs echoing these themes. With no shortage of sneering abuse for the BLM movement.
My friend didn’t write this piece; he was just forwarding it. As probably did hundreds or thousands of other members of that audience. So that message is out there and has been out there for quite awhile.
Then again *D = Anarchy, R = Safety *has been a campaign meme since I was a kid in the early 60s. McGovern was widely touted as the guy who’d let the long-haired college kids finish taking over the campuses. That was a yuuge part of why he lost bigly.
Yeah, Trump was probably salivating when he saw this news. Until he saw the suspect, of course.
The NY Times has a bottom line Chances of Winning on their app – it’s currently at Hillary 87%. No idea how they arrived at that number, and I don’t care.
I’ve decided that I will stay away from 538, and only read the Times for the next 6 days. It’s better for my blood pressure.
SO I’m in the US right now (leaving today thankfully, don’t want to be here on election day). I was pretty shocked to see ABC news blasting out “DEAD HEAT” for Trump and Clinton based on their one poll with who knows what methodology. More than that, other media seems to be taking this seriously? They have to know this is bullshit and that Clinton still has a 4 point lead and that with the Electoral college the way it is, Trump’s chances are very low.
Yeah I know they want to create drama by making it seem close, but the really dangerous thing is that this is going to throw fuel onto the fire of all the “election is rigged” Trump supporters. When Clinton wins by 4-5 points, as is likely and with over 300 EV, they’re all going to point to the polls saying it was a dead heat as evidence that it was rigged.
This could really get ugly…
If he loses by any margin, Trump die-hards will still be frothing at the mouth. Might not make much difference either way.