It’s reassuring to see people in this thread saying Clinton still has the edge, but looking at how 538 shows Clinton’s chances nosediving steeply (if still in safe zone right now), is pretty hair-raising. Will it continue until next week - because at that rate, Trump becomes dangerously likely.
It’s closer than you think - at least in terms of the electoral college. This is shaping up to be a race that more closely resembles the election of 2000 than any of the other races over the past several decades. Clinton will most likely win the popular vote but she could still lose the electoral college. Nate Silver, interestingly enough, posted that this possibility is growing and I see it myself in my own analysis. If you factor very recent polling and historical trends, you can see how it shapes up in this way.
For the time being, yes, Clinton is still a strong favorite to win. Probably a 75 percent chance of that based on polling and historical data. But Trump is moving the ball down the field.
Well, the last two times Trump surged, he got within about 1 or close to a tie. I think it’s doubtful he exceeds that, so Clinton probably wins, but it will be a very dramatic election night. Enjoy!
The primary uncertainty, which Nate keeps on mentioning in his posts, is the larger number of undecideds than usual. If they break overwhelmingly for Trump, then get ready for a very bad night for Democrats all the way down the ticket.
Take heart in this article. If it’s correct, Hillary is going to win NV by a significantly larger margin than the polls suggest, likely due to underpolled Hispanics. If Hispanics are underpolled elsewhere, particularly in FL and AZ, then she will have a big win, and electorally larger than the polls suggest.
Fwiw, going back to Brexit, the pollsters 4%+/- was enough to swing it. The closer it got to the day, the more decided to take the chance …
Really hope so. Given how much we’ve scoffed at Trump supporters having wishful thinking when polls were against them, I’d hate to think we’re having the same phenomenon here.
Actually what Silver has been claiming is that the chances of Hillary losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college are growing.
So why is Clinton dropping so much in the Polls? is it really about Comey’s non statement about the emails? Is it just because Trump hasn’t made a complete idiot of himself in the last two weeks and people forget how bad he is?
I’m genuinely confused what’s really changed since the third debate, nothing concrete has come from leaked emails while we’ve got still more Trump scandals and they don’t seem to be having any effect at all.
Yeah. This guy is not exactly BLM.
What’s your point? All she needs are the Obama voters, plus all the Romney voters who are going to hold their noses and vote for her, plus a plurality of undecideds and new voters, and it will be a landslide.
coremelt, if you look at the trendlines/numbers rather than the spread, it really seems more a matter of Trump gaining rather than Hillary dropping in the polls.
Which would mean him winning over undecideds. But still the question is specifically what has Trump done now which is working? I’m just not seeing where it’s coming from.
I think you have that backwards. 538 currently has Trump at a 11% chance of losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college. Clinton has a less than 1% chance of that happening.
Keeping his mouth shut?
She’s really not, the media just cherry picks polls to play up the horse race. She is still leading comfortably in the popular vote and overwhelmingly in the electoral college.
The safest bet in history. That horned toad could get ugly. A rabid mongoose could get dangerous. Letting a toddler play with a loaded pistol could be ill-advised.
Even if Hillary crushes it, the bad news is still bad, a buttload of us Americans are stupid. And not forgiveably stupid, not handicapped by some genetic misfire, but *chose *to be stupid, as if stupid were a brave act of defiance.
Hell, maybe its just easier. I’m a smart sumbitch, what do I know about being stupid?
He really hasn’t. He may think he has, but most of that has just been telling various voter groups that he’s the best for them and that naturally they’re going to come out and vote for him in great numbers without giving them the slightest reason to do so.
Meanwhile, every mention of crime has prompted him to immediately talk about “The African-Americans” and “inner cities”, because naturally crime and black people and inner cities are all inextricably linked. Being persistently ignorant and patronizing to groups you’re trying to woo is not “making an effort”.
Yes she’s still ahead but the 538 PollsPlus has dropped from 83% chance for Clinton to win to 68% since Oct 24th, thats not nothing and considering there has been no major events from either side it’s rather baffling. All the other swings this large on the 538 PollsPlus coincided with clear events which more or less explained them.
This is a really surprising line to read, here on this message board. I had expected Dopers to be more interested in the “truth” / reality and less interested in just reading / listening to an echo chamber.
It’s interesting to see how Nate Silver falls out of favor with people here when his predictions show Trump with a better chance, and how closely people hang on his predictions when they show HRC killing it.
*Some *people here. Not all.
But your point is valid as far as it goes. The last few months have really gotten everybody into a cheerleader / bunker mentality, regardless of which bunker they occupy. Go Team!! is about as deep as some folks ever get. And everybody, including me, has fallen into that trap at least once.