I think you’re misunderstanding. I think most of us think Nate’s right. It’s just for our blood pressures, might be better not to follow it so closely. Just like I don’t pay attention to the stock market. I don’t see most here denying the reality or truth.
It’s not nothing, it’s just the race reverting back to the mean. I simply cannot buy that there are tens of millions of people out there that switch their vote wildly back and forth depending on the scandal of the week. The way Sam Wang explained it is that when things are looking bad for one candidate or another their voters are less likely to want to answer pollsters leading to the swings, but that this does not mean their vote has actually been affected.
Exactly.
I only read 538 for the polling updates. I don’t care about his probabilities, I think they’re a crock of shit. Assumptions on top of averages on top of assumptions.
Plus with probability as his output, as long as he doesn’t say 100%, HE CAN NEVER BE WRONG.
I think Ms. Clinton expressed support for the Cubbies, who are NL. On the other hand, the Republican Convention was held in Cleveland, a straight AL town, where the thingy will be decided. However, I suspect Ms. Clinton, having strong Chi-Town ties, would support the Black Sox if they were in the series, so the question is not so clear-cut. Trump is from New York, which has both an AL and NL team, so I would not expect him to want to alienate half the city by declaring one way or the other.
In the end, the DH will remain, no matter who you vote for. The more pressing issues relate to what kind of contact is acceptable on pass plays and how control of the ball should be decided on close calls. Those questions are much more relevant this time of year.
Clinton should be hoping for a Cleveland win tonight. People being in a good mood will be better for her.
This fundamental lack of certainty is also more colloquially known as science.
Or in the case of 538, a snow job.
“I never met that Mafia guy on the video next to me!”
It would be rather dishonest of the man to claim to know for sure who was going to win if, in fact, he does not know for sure who is going to win. It’s not a snow job if you’re honest.
Plenty of people I’ve never met have named racehorses after me. Happens all the time!
Let me see if I have this correct - he screwed over a Gotti lieutenant, hit on the (wise)guy’s daughter and was threatened with castration. How is this goober still alive?
I can’t tell you how much I hope you’re right, but I have to admit this election is giving me gray hairs.
Let me introduce you to your new best friend, Sam Wang.
The New York Times counts as an echo chamber now?
I admit I do think of it that way. Not as bad as HuffPo or Fox News, but basically presenting a fiscally moderate, socially liberal mindset.
They’ve been a boogeyman of the Right for quite a while now. Basically anything that’s not Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, or smeared on the side of a truck stop restroom is a part of the liberal media conspiracy.
Besides the allegation that McMullin is unmarried and doesn’t have a girlfriend, apparently his mother is married to a woman, and that makes him gay.
I’m starting to feel like Nate Silver, feeling especially burned for completely getting it wrong on Trump in the primaries, is steadily inching his forecast down to 50%, and will post an Election Morning analysis that simply reads “Flip a coin, people.”
Very interesting - thanks. His bit on who kids support for President, and what that might mean for America’s future, is quite encouraging.