When Gameday was in Stillwater last week, the best sign (IMHO) was “Make the Big XII 12 again”.
I’m gonna call it that Ohio State gets in and everyone will hate it. They will get blown out by Alabama and everyone will be happy again.
The Bowl committee will only put a non major conference champ in extraordinary circumstances. Miami’s utter destruction of ND rules ND out of hte picture. UCF doesn’t have a win against a ranked team, so it’s tough seeing them in. That leaves it between the Big 10 and Pac 10, and OSU with wins against MSU, PSU, Mich, and Wisconsin will have the better resume as a 2 loss team.
If you like chaos you’ve gotta root for Auburn to beat Alabama and then lose to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Who would you pick then?
No. Chaos is Michigan wins out against Wisconsin and THE Ohio State Univ. This produces a four-way tie at the top of the BiG East, and leaves the conference without a real contender for the national title. Especially if the BiG East winner beats Wisconsin for the BiG Championship.
Auburn over 'Bama, then over Georgia just means Auburn and 'Bama both get in. :rolleyes:
If OU wins out they get in over Ohio State.
Yeah, I have them in. There are 5 power conferences and the odds of their champion getting in are
SEC - 100%
ACC - 99.9%
Big 12 - 98%
Big 10 - 95%
Pac-10 - 3%
ND/UCF - 3%
I agree that the Big 12 gets in if it’s OU. Otherwise, the champion will have 2 losses. I can’t see a 2 loss TCU or OSU team making it.
Still a lot of games to play … but listening to Mike & Mike this morning talking to Gus Malzahn, saying that if Auburn wins out (over Bama and then Georgia in the SEC championship) they’re definitely in the playoff, well, I guess they’re correct (would the committee ever NOT put in the SEC champion?) but Auburn has two losses.
Right now you’ve probably got the ACC champion in (Miami or Clemson). If Wisconsin goes undefeated and wins the B1G title, they have to be in (even with their weak schedule, a win over Ohio State in the championship would get them in, right?). If Oklahoma wins out, that’s just 1 loss for the Big XII champion. I guess the SEC champion gets the other spot, even a two loss Auburn.
Of course, things probably won’t play out that way. If Ohio State wins the B1G, they have two losses … would the committee skip over the Buckeyes? (Spoiler alert: fat chance. Much like the SEC, Ohio State seems to have a permanent reservation in the playoff regardless of the quality of their season.) Another loss by Oklahoma and I agree the Big XII champion probably gets excluded - although I may not personally agree that a two-loss Big XII champion should not be considered at all while a two-loss SEC or B1G champ gets the benefit of the doubt. I mean, look
- we’re pretty much in agreement that a two-loss B1G champ Ohio State probably gets in, even though one of their losses is to a potentially two-loss Oklahoma, whom we seem to agree would have no shot. Where’s the sense in that?
Forget it, Jake - it’s playoff-committee-town.
Anyway, for me it’s way too early to settle on a solid four. But look here:
-Clemson beats Miami in the ACC championship. Both Clemson and Miami would have one loss.
-Oklahoma loses the Big XII championship. They’d have two losses, but a win over Ohio State IN COLUMBUS.
-Ohio State wins the B1G championship. They’d have two losses, including to Oklahoma AT HOME. Wisconsin would have only one loss, but a weak schedule.
-Notre Dame finishes with two losses.
-Auburn beats Bama and then Georgia again in the SEC championship. Bama would have only one loss; Auburn and Georgia would have two.’
What makes the most sense for a final four here? You take the ACC champion (Clemson, in this scenario). Do you take both Auburn and Bama (I can certainly see the committee doing that, just like they took non-division-winning Ohio State last year)? Do you take a one-loss Miami? What makes you pick between Oklahoma (even not winning the conference, it’s only two losses) and Ohio State (hint: It’s always Ohio State, although yeah, conference champion, yadda yadda)? I thought the committee said head-to-head was important.
I see a lot of unhappy people if things play out this way.
I realize my long screed left out a lot of things. You could end up with a 2-loss Pac 12 champion in USC, or Washington, or Washington State … but nobody is really talking about a 2-loss Pac 12 team making the playoff, not really. Notre Dame is pretty much dead in the water.
But, I mean, look at what you could end up with.
-Pac12 champion with two losses.
-Big XII champion with two losses (Okie State or TCU), plus potentially a Big XII runner up with two losses in Oklahoma.
-SEC champion with two losses in Auburn, plus a runner up with two losses (Georgia) and a non-division-winner with one loss (Bama).
-B1G champion with two losses (Ohio State), plus a runner up with one loss in Wisconsin.
We could potentially be looking at four major conference champions with two losses, along with a one-loss SEC power, a one-loss B1G team, and a Big XII runnerup that beat Ohio State in Columbus. And they’re all fighting over three playoff spots, essentially (you figure Clemson or Miami is in, right?).
I do think eight is probably what we need for a playoff, if we’re doing it this way. I wouldn’t mind the plus-one concept (after the bowl games, pick who you think are the top two and there we go), but years like this really show that just four can really tie your hands - how do you make the right decision if things play out this way?
Besides picking the biggest name programs, of course, which has been the committee’s MO so far (so this means Auburn, Bama, Ohio State in the above scenario, done and done).
Let’s go even another way (I can’t get off this topic, somebody help me, please):
- Wisconsin wins out, beating Ohio State in the B1G title game. They’re undefeated.
- Miami beats Clemson in the ACC championship. They’re undefeated.
- Oklahoma wins out, taking the Big XII title. They have one loss.
- Bama beats Auburn, but then loses to Georgia in the SEC championship. Both Bama and Georgia have one loss.
Would the committee leave a one-loss Bama out of the playoff? Or would they hose over the Big XII yet again? There’s no way they’d leave an undefeated B1G champion out, or an undefeated Miami, so those two spots are filled. They’d have to take a one-loss SEC champion, so there’s one spot left … Oklahoma or Bama? Who do you think they’d lean towards? (And yes, I admit, if it comes down to comparing losses, Oklahoma’s loss at home to Iowa State is a worse loss than a potential Bama loss in the SEC championship … but I still stand by my opinion that conference championships should be de facto first-round playoff games. You lose your conference championship, your playoff shot should be gone - no SEC rematch in the playoffs! No!)
I think I’m done ranting for now. Go out and play the games, fellas! Maybe everything will sort itself out …
In the situation where OU had just won their championship game and Alabama had just lost theirs, you should go with “Who is playing the best right now?”
That’s what you should do. The committee would still pick Alabama.
A few more years of this and maybe the NCAA will come to realize that the playoffs need 8 teams, not 4.
I tend to agree with you in terms of what I think *would *happen. But I absolutely don’t think OSU *should *be in the playoff no matter what they do from here on out as long as there are other eligible 1 or 2 loss teams. Both of their losses were ugly and that Iowa loss is an automatic disqualifier for me. It is the worst loss among any of the top 25 two-loss teams. I’d take any other 2 loss power 5 conference champ over them and probably even undefeated UCF.
Worse than WASU losing 37-3 to Cal?
Worse than USC being down 28-0 at the half to ND?
Worse than ND being down 27-0 to Miami at the half?
OSU was at least competitive in their loses and the games were in question in the 4th quarter.
Wanting an 8 team playoff is missing how the selection committee treats conference champions. Barring extraordinary circumstances, the conference championships are effectively the first round of the playoffs. From the 5 conference champions, the worst is discarded and the rest move onto the next round.
Keep in mind that “the NCAA” consists of its member schools - in this case, the 130 FBS schools. Can you get 66 of them to agree to an expanded tournament, especially if the Group of 5 schools are willing to hold out until they get a larger chunk of the TV money? Right now, it appears to be $55 million for each Power 5 conference, and about $17 million for each Group of 5 conference, not including (a) the $300,000 each school that does not have an APR-based bowl ban gets, or (b) bonus money for having teams in the Big Six bowls.
That simple concept is the source of all the fevered speculation, of course. Of the 5 conference champions, which one is “the worst”? And is the worst of the 5 better/worse than a conference runner-up? Several terabytes of of analysis in the next 2 weeks hinges on those answers.
Yes, yes and yes. Halftime scores are meaningless and USC’s and ND’s losses were on the road to highly ranked teams. OSU/Iowa was not in doubt in the 4th quarter.
Like how they treated Penn St? Let’s not forget just last year OSU made the playoff and didn’t even play in a conference championship game.
I would love to hear why the Iowa loss is worse than losing 37-3 to a .500 team
Well, the margin of Washington State’s loss was slightly greater (34 points vs. 31). But WSU was only favored by 16. OSU was favored by 21. I can call it a wash. The Bucks can be 1 spot ahead of WSU in the rankings.
To be honest, though, I think undefeated UCF is probably more deserving than any 2 loss team. I mean, what is the point for non-Power Five schools? There are 130 FBS teams, exactly half of which are in a Power Five conference (and that includes Notre Dame, who is not in a conference of course, but gets almost equal treatment). So you’ve got a sport where half of the teams competing have literally no chance to win a championship regardless of what they do on the field. What is the point for them?
What was the point before the CFP or the BCS for that matter? They weren’t winning national championships then either.
The point is to win the games you have scheduled and make a decent bowl game so the players and fans can have fun and maybe the players can get a free education.
If there’s more Big Games that more people will watch than the usual bowl, then there’s more money, and I would trust them to work out how to split it.