Ok, I’ll spell it out for you. The reason is that your question was disingenuous, and I find it just kind of weird that you would adopt this kind of passive aggressive rhetorical style in a discussion of facts and news, as though it’s some kind of point-winning debate. You posted some potentially frightening statistics that were quite obviously the reason for the perfectly reasonable response that we shouldn’t necessarily panic, nobody accused you of saying “we should all panic”.
I am curious about this aspect of the event. What are all those people doing as shut-ins all this time? Will there be a baby-boom in China around September/October? How are they getting food and supplies? What’s the plan for getting back to normal - will they gradually allow people to resume regular activities, or just tell everyone “all clear” and everyone just clicks back into life, like nothing happened?
We’re in our 70s and apparently boast fairly strong immune systems. We’re in a small California mountain county and aren’t exposed to many people at all. We plan to spend a few days in the Monterey-Santa Cruz area south of San Francisco which will be crawling with visitors from all over. If we hear of ONE case in that area, my wife will insist on canceling. Is she prudent, or paranoid, or what?
In making a decision like that, I ask myself, “What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?” Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don’t have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that’s just me. I’d avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
They are allowed out every couple days to get food. China has strong penetration of the internet so they are spending time on sites like Sina Weibo with 445 million active users:
The priority is getting the economy moving again so they will reopen the factories but discourage large gatherings.
I tend to agree with this in principle. We are not very good at assessing risks. There are several components to think about: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What is it’s impact if it does occur? In this case, the likelihood is very low. However, the impact is potentially very high.
That said, even if you do catch this virus, chances are you wont notice it more than just a cold. Not everyone coming in contact with this is dying, far from it. However, what is your risk of NOT going to Monterey, compared to going? You may be out a small deposit for your lodging? But, if that buys you peace-of-mind, it’s probably worth it. I would not want to have worry on my vacation like that.
I bet there are some cheap deals on cruises right now. They need some marketing spin - possible bonus of 2 extra free weeks on board.
Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
Factories are large gatherings.
Your number is off by an order of magnitude. Hundreds of millions are in lockdown. Shanghai alone has 30M in lockdown
The various factories that the company I work for have in China are starting to get back on line depending on the location. This can mean a 2 week hard quarantine outside the factory area before the first 30 people can enter the factory. These factory complexes employ thousands, tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of staff. And they all need fresh face masks every shift.
In fact, our company has spun up their own mask line just to supply our line workers in China.
Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn’t seriously necessary, and losing deposits won’t seriously hurt. But we’ll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts’ lab, you’ll know why.
Santa Cruz is not a big city, and doesn’t have an airport or a dock receiving passengers from infected areas. No cases there that I’ve heard. I’m probably more at risk where I live in the Bay Area than he would be. And I’m not worried. I’m not in my 70s, only 68 though.
I got an ad from Travelocity today about cheap fares to Hong Kong. Sure.
Asian cruises are way down.
I know someone who is a marketing exec at a Japanese tech company, and she didn’t go to our meeting because she was busy cancelling meetings in China.
I live in Fremont, and I figure I’m more at risk than if I lived in Santa Cruz or Monterey, and I’m not worried. I think there are a few cases in Santa Clara.
I doubt there are many Chinese tourists in Santa Cruz at the moment.
I wouldn’t worry about traveling to the Santa Cruz area at this time. Avoid the Boardwalk if you think tourists are a risk, but otherwise enjoy yourself.
Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn’t seriously necessary, and losing deposits won’t seriously hurt. But we’ll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts’ lab, you’ll know why.
Today’s numbers:
67,088 confirmed infected
1,526 dead
8,283 recovered
Agree. I live very near Santa Cruz. It’s a pocket concentration of people, isolated and on the south end (with a mountain barrier) of a ginormous population in the San Jose, SF peninsula, East Bay and SF areas. 250k-ish folk in this county, vs something like 8 million up there.
I just came back from Disneyland. I didn’t go into the park, but I did stay at one of the hotels and was in Downtown Disney a lot. There was no sign of concern from Disney not anyone else, and remember that this was where the measles outbreak hit.
Disney is a hundred times more likely to have problems than Santa Cruz.
New virus cases fall; WHO says China bought the world time
Also in the article is the news that France has recorded their first death due to COVID-19.