Could Devin Nunes...lose?

Yes, it’s a long shot, but he has thrown all his chips in on riding the Trump train, and while his district is conservative, it’s not like he’s living in Georgia or Alabama. IIRC, Trump carried his district by 10 points, which is not a dominant victory. According to Politico, Nunes votes with Trump 98 percent of the time, yet their data predicts that he would (should?) vote with Trump 82% of the time, which I would interpret to mean that he might be relying on Trump too much. This is especially interesting given the fact that Trump has just launched a trade war (not particularly good for California farm country) and just got exposed as Putin’s puppet on the world stage.

Even more interesting, while Devin Nunes has dominated Janz in fundraising, he seems more concerned with attacking the Fresno Bee newspaper than his actual opponent. One has to wonder if this could completely backfire. I guess the real question is, is it possible that Devin Nunes spends so much of his time attacking his imagined nemeses that he ignores his actual opponent, and gets schlonged on election night? If I were the DNC, I would be sending some serious money and muscle Janz’s way. What better way to stun the right than to defeat its biggest asshole?

As not a local to the area, I couldn’t begin to guess. One hopes, at least, but I think that the thing most politicians have failed to grasp that Trump did (or that he was forced by his handler to do) is trust that there is no such thing as bad publicity. Nunes may well win on name recognition alone, because people have a positive feeling towards names they recognize, generally irregardless of how they came to be aware of that name.

Our species was not intelligently designed.

Similar to Trump, his weakness is his strength. All of his shenanigans get him attacked. Then he gets to play the victim - “Look at all these enemies attacking me!” This strengthens his support. Reasonable sensible people would say, “yeahbut, maybe they are attacking you because you are doing bad things!”

People in general aren’t reasonable sensible.

So, like the old saw, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The greater the bad behavior, the greater the attacks, the greater the support.

That’s all about what Nunes is doing. What is Janz doing? Even a crappy campaign can win against a crappier one.

There’s a PreditIt market for this.

Will Devin Nunes be re-elected to Congress in 2018?

It’s around 70/30 right now. So unlikely, but not impossible that he’ll lose his job. He’s in better shape than he was two months ago.

About the same odds as Cruz losing and of less importance. Not impossible but it will require turnout from those who are not typically likely midterm voters and some of the R side not bothering that day. Janz needs to excite the D side. Can he?

This news story could hurt him. Nunes spent $15,000 on NBA tickets.

This story is getting some traction on Twitter.

And I’ll help add to the Twitter traction. One of the things that helped Gingrich win back the House in 1994 was the perceived arrogance of long term congressmen writing bad checks during the check kiting scandal.

Nunes being seen as out of touch from the average person could hurt him.

More potential trouble for Nunes. To win, the Democrats need enough Republicans to stay home in disgust m.

He is in possibly the most redneck district in the California farm country (well, there are prolly an additional 5 districts that are just as redneck).

A strong Hispanic vote could take him down.

This, from his hometown newspaper Nunes used to care about Valley. Now he’s a D.C. fat cat living large on donors’ dime won’t help.

I go back to this post, because it was spot on.

I think Nunes is clearly beatable, but is his opponent working to capitalize on Nunes’ failures?

I’m curious to know what impact the tariffs are having on California farmers. People think of the Midwest as being farm country, but no state produces more agriculture than California. No state has as much agricultural diversity as California. And China is not a market they want to fuck up. And Nunes is right smack dab in the middle of California farm country, and whatever ‘aid’ Trump is throwing at farmers as compensation won’t even reach California farmers because Trump already views California as the enemy.

California fruits, nuts, and wine have big tariffs being imposed. Almonds are increasing to a 50% tariff for example, before this started it was 10%. But harvest is not for another month or so, so not hitting them too hard yet.

A democratic pollster recently gathered some data suggesting that Nunes is beatable.

And then came this news: a one million dollar campaign fundraising haul in the month of July – for Janz.

I suspect that Nunes’ support for Trump wouldn’t be so problematic if he were not the one leading the judiciary committee right now. He clearly wanted a higher profile by supporting Trump, and clearly could have benefited from it otherwise. But one has to wonder if his profile isn’t perhaps too high at this point. He’s the ultimate Trumpist. There is nobody more pro-Trump and more closely identified with Trump in congress.

Let’s not forget that there’s a trade war that’s really starting to hit California. Let’s not forget that Trump wanted to punish blue California by stiffing them with not giving them the right proportion of the $12 billion in he pledged as aid.

Janz strikes me as a potentially dangerous type of opponent for Nunes. He seems pretty low key and kinda neighborly, in stark contrast to Nunes who is becoming an infamous figure in American politics. This race is in some ways eerily reminiscent of the race which deposed Tom Foley in 1994 or the primary that Eric Kantor lost in 2014. Some guy comes out of nowhere and takes down a big name in politics. Voters love to write that kind of script once in a while and I’m beginning to get the sense it really could happen here. I think Nunes is still the clear favorite, but he has a fight on his hands now.

As far as I know, there aren’t any hot button ballot initiatives on the California ballot since the split the state one got kicked off. There is a Republican sacrificial lamb that got into the Governor’s race but the Senate race is Democrat vs Democrat. So, this could help suppress Republican turnout in Nunes’ district with not much for Republicans to vote on

Prop 6 is rather hot button. Cox is pushing it hard to increase Republican turnout.

Currently, Cook PVI has CA-22 as an R+8 district, and the House race is “Solid R”. FiveThirtyEight gives Nunes 95.9% odds to win. Nunes only goes down if there’s a major scandal, or the Democrats win at least 280 seats. It’s wildly unlikely. The DCCC would be wise to pay this race little attention.

In other words, the title of this thread follows Betteridge’s Law of Headlines pretty well.

I’m very skeptical of 538’s forecast. I could certainly see Nunes being the favorite, but I don’t think this race is as nearly ‘in the bag’ as it would seem. Nunes is a strong incumbent but despite the 22nd Congressional District overwhelmingly supporting Nunes in 2016 and 2014, there are potential warning signs. The district that supported Nunes also voted for Kamala Harris and it only supported Trump by 10%. Hispanics are the largest ethnic group in the district. It’s also heavily agricultural, and California farmers have felt the brunt of both tariffs and an absence of economic relief. Janz just got a major fundraising hall so he’s going to be a more visible presence than any of Nunes’ previous challengers.

They voted for Kamala Harris because, due to California’s primary process, the other candidate on the ballot was also a Democrat (Loretta Sanchez). And that stretch of CA HWY 99 is 100 miles of corn, almonds and grapes mixed with humongous signs and bill boards blaming all the world’s woes on

  1. Jerry Brown
  2. Dianne Feinstein
  3. Los Angeles (they may have a point here).

There is zero percent chance that any Republican takes the blame for anything.