That is funny. There might as well have been post counts and gratuitous mentions of Og in that article considering the resemblance to this thread.
Anyway, I stand confidently behind my +10% thinking. Even though nothing is really riding on this, it does make things a little more fun to follow.
Mully, I’ll meet you back in this thread for the post-election gloat. Either way.
It is not racist to point out the obvious fact that there are some black voters who will vote for a black candidate whenever they have the chance, and who can blame them? (I mean, unless it’s Alan Keyes. Then you can blame them.) Nor is it racist to point out the equally obvious fact that there are some black voters who would turn out to vote if there were a black in the race and who otherwise might just stay home on election day.
Bumping. Mullinator and spoke-, take your corners or crouch for the tip or whatever sports metaphor you’d like to apply.
I still feel good about my >10% call. I feel absolutely certain that the margin will be greater than the 4% in -spoke’s corner. So I’ll start with a mature “neener neener neener” which sort of fits with the political tone this time around. Of course that being said and this post now belonging to the ages, Kerry will probably pull an upset and this will make me look like an even bigger idiot than normal. Ah, such is life.
In all seriousness though, I do think it will end up around 11% but I will be really interested to see post-election analyses come out regarding the role of the black vote, the race that Majette has run (which has been full of some fairly underhanded but probably effective advertising), and where the Georgia voting population stands in comparison to 2000.
I like to use “toeing the rubber” as my sports metaphor of choice.
It doesn’t do any good to put it on your toe, you dope!
I stand ready to gloat…
…or to take my medicine.
And for my sports metaphor I choose “Hunker down.”
NBC projects Bush and Isakson winning, but no percentages yet. Must be a pretty clear gap, though.
Hmm. Looks like I may have some crow for supper. Exit poll says Bush over Kerry in Georgia 57% to 43%. Cite.
With 77% reporting it is now 61 to 39. Majette clearly made no difference. Perhaps we all overlooked the effect that ballot initiative #1 (defining marriage) would have.
All I can say is blech blech blech blech…blech.
I spent three hours in line in Fairburn, and all sorts of people around me in line said they were voting for the first time, and they were not spring chickens. I had hopes, not extremely high ones, but they were there. And now they are blowing away in tatters…
It appears that I didn’t make a prediction about Max Burns losing in this thread.
Wonder where I did make it.
I guess my wishful thinking was no substitute for cogent analysis. Alas.
I agree that the “no gay marriage” amendment had an effect on turnout among Christian conservatives. It was good strategy for Republicans to get that issue on the ballot (not only here in Georgia but in several of the battleground states as well).
Ah well.
Bush has a tough row to hoe. He’ll have to try to get us out of Iraq with a modicum of dignity intact. He’ll have to try to close the budget deficit and get the economy back on solid footing. He faces looming Social Security, Medicare and health care crises. We still have terrorists who wish to cause us catastrophic harm. As an American first and a Democrat second, I wish him the best of luck on all fronts.
Seconded that (replace Democrat with Republican however). Kerry would have had all of the same issues. I do think Bush with a more Republican House and Senate stands a far better chance of it than Kerry would have, if only because it may help to avoid partisan wrangling.
I’d like to credit deep and insightful analysis on my part in being correct on this call, but it really boils down to some half-assed playing with numbers and a gut feel. If it only worked so well in Vegas I could buy and sell the whole lot of you people.