Ok, do you prefer 538 that shows his favorability has dropped 5.2%? I think you are wildly underestimating how close 2020 was and when nothing occurs for the last 2 years of Biden’s presidency he will be blamed for it.
National polls have nothing to do with an electoral college win. I mean, Trump’s polls never went above 50%. And he lost in 2020.
This would indicate that Trump is acting like a seasoned politician which I find…surprising. Also slightly scary; if he added rational planning behind his irrational behavior he could be a more formidable opponent.
Anyway, something is keeping him from having rallies, either advisors or ill health or the like. I have a hard time believing he’s working for the long term.
Where is this 5.2% drop in favorability? That 538 graph shows a high point of 55.1%, and a current of 54.5%. Trump never cracked 50%.
OK, then let’s try a simple thought experiment since data isn’t working for you. Do you believe that the number of people that are happy with Biden today in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania has gone up or down since Jan 20th? Do you believe that people in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have changed their level of dissatisfaction with Trump in the last 4 months?
It’s not hard to see that Trump isn’t in power and has done everything negative he can before the next election all that is left is for the horrors to fade into memory. For the next 4 years Biden is in charge and when he can only pass one bill per year or there is a government shutdown he will bear the blame for it and those mistakes will be fresher than Trump’s massive fuckups.
Correct. You need to subtract his dissatisfied numbers. On February second his net approval was +19 today it is +13.8.
I mean nothing you’re saying here is particularly predictive. We know that just a month out from Trump losing, his crybaby antics cost the Republicans two Georgia Senate seats. I have no reason to believe given the evidence available that Biden would lose any of those states listed if their elections were re-run today. Biden’s popularity has always moved up and down a bit like any politician, but it’s been consistently higher than Trump’s and was also consistently higher than Trump’s the entirety of the 2020 election–at the end of which Biden won in the electoral college and a commanding victory in the popular vote. Also note Biden won in a walk with voters under age 44, demonstrating what many have been saying for years (including me back when I was an active-in-local-party leadership dyed-in-the-wool Republican): the current form of the GOP is dying every year, and they are not being replaced with more people like them.
Sure. what kind of information would you believe is particularly predictive 3+ years in advance? I think we’ll know a lot more in the fall. If the infrastructure bill fails that will Biden’s last chance to accomplish something. If he gets it pushed through then he may get the ball rolling and have a good presidency.
I think it’s good you guys are worried about chicanery around election laws, and it’s good you’re pessimistic. That is an asset because it keeps people engaged.
That being said, like I told people all along after election day in 2020, none of the Republican legal bullshit was going to overturn any significant number of votes. They didn’t. Republican officials in every state in question had avenues of malfeasance and they largely were not pursued. Laws are subject to court review, particularly laws around fairness of elections and due process.
I don’t want to at all suggest we shouldn’t fight hard against GOP bullshit around elections, but I also think if we want to have a real-life big boy talk, all those laws aren’t going to change much. The biggest thing in the GOP’s favor in terms of Presidential elections is the electoral college, and that’s something already in place and almost impossible to change. Gerrymandering is a problem as well but has zilch to do with the Presidential race, and also isn’t anything new in our system.
Also I know a lot of you Democrats still have PTSD from 2016, but Trump is not unbeatable, he has been beaten. He also has been a big loser during large swathes of his life and has failed at most things he’s done. There is little objective reason to think this is any different.
Now, if he ran, would he win the nomination? Yes, he would. And because of our two party system anyone who wins the Republican nomination has a “non-marginal chance of winning the Presidency”, which should keep everyone engaged and interested. He’s nowhere near a lock for victory or a likely landslide winner.
Data? This is what your cited data shows:
I don’t see a 3% drop in favorability, but then I was told that I had to do some math in order to come up with your numbers, and, as such, I stand by my original reply. I remain unpersuaded by both your data and thought experiments, sorry.
Possibly because the words favorability don’t appear on the graph?
Maybe you just don’t know what a favorability rating is:
http://methods.sagepub.com/reference/encyclopedia-of-survey-research-methods/n180.xml
I mean nothing is particularly predictive 3 years out. I largely disagree with the entirety of your political analysis based on prior evidence. Both Clinton and Obama only got two years of unified control of government and faced serious Republican obstructionism the entire remainder of their presidencies. Both were reelected easily and both left office with high approval ratings. I think you dramatically overstate how effective Republican obstructionism is at winning electoral college elections. I do think it may help in congressional elections, but I also think there’s just some literal brain-worm shit where something like 15% of the American electorate just always votes against the party in power during mid terms because they want to send a message, or “speak against power” or some crazy shit.
Even if Biden does nothing but sleep in a roll away bed in the Oval Office the rest of his Presidency, his $2T stimulus he already got passed was actually already more than Obama was able to “materially” deliver in his first term (Obama delivered the ACA but because it took years to implement no one was really feeling the effects of it positive or negative in the 2012 election.)
The word ‘favor’, or any variants thereof, was not in your original citation. I mean… ¯_(ツ)_/¯
That’s fair. I think that Trump is a better politician that either Bob Dole or Mitt Romney but you’re correct there is nothing to show that Biden won’t follow their path.
Hopefully, you read the cite this time. It is helpful if you understand the words people are using when they talk to you.
Dude, you have seen fit to insult me no fewer than three times in a simple discussion about the disgraced ex-President’s chances of winning in 2024. Why do you think I wish to further this conversation?
(Please do not respond to this. I’m bowing out.)
How can they do it? Same as they did to Obama… threaten inaction with regard to the bogus debt ceiling limit, obstruct critical stimulus legislation if it should become necessary. Then they’ll blame the Democrat for the consequences of stuff that the Republicans did. This is the playbook, how is it surprising or mysterious at this point?
Maybe it’s just not the same without Twitter.
Do not discount either (a) no longer being able to demand and command resources (both for the spectacle and for the security) to be mobilized on his say-so, thus (b) needing to find someone to actually pay for it all ('cause the Trump circle themselves are not going to part with the money they raise from the fandom, to the detriment of the actual RNC, until they absolutely, positively must, and only after skimming what they’re going to pocket for themselves) and you just know they’re going to be asked to put up cash up front due to their record.
If the collective RW clownshow can ever get a Parler-like thing going, it may be just as effective at riling up the base as twitter with none of the effect of also riling up the D’s counter-base.
That might in fact be more effective at moving the election Trump’s way than Twitter was. It’ll take some time to build up the membership / following on Parler or the equivalent. But they have 2+ years to get that sorted out. In a business where 2 weeks is a proverbial eternity, 2 years is a proverbial forever.
IDK I think a big part of what right wingers get from social media is the trolling and being an ass to get reactions from snowflakes on the left. If they are only surrounded by the like minded, then who will they be able to piss off with their assholery?