Could Trump actually run and win in 2024?

I don’t really think a gated social media network will ever be as valuable as a broad based one.

The thing that makes me pessimistic is that 74 million Americans have fallen for a con man and a cult leader. That’s a bond that’s hard to break.

But there are things that give me optimism. Republican campaigns are primarily about the grift, the enrichment of the cronies and consultants and random hangers on. They fundraise a lot of money, but they don’t spend it well, and their advertising is aimed straight at their hardlined base and geared towards raising money rather than bringing in undecided voters.

And they have to keep this grift going for the next four years, four years of convincing their cult that only their money is the only thing fending off the coming socialist apocalypse.

Can he hang onto his cult? I don’t know? When the Republicans had power it was easy…his base loved to win, loved to stomp and vanquish their enemies. Now they’ve had to switch to being the aggrieved victims of the RADICAL SOCIALIST LEFT, and I’m not sure his sore loser schtick is going to hold the audience for the next three years.

He’s been out of office for three months, and he’s already losing oxygen. If has any rational decision-making capability left, he’d cut his losses and make a fortune partnering with middle-class real estate developers on “Trump Village” housing developments. If he runs again, it won’t be a rational decision.

The other thing that gives me hope is that the Republican Party is rapidly losing business and corporate support, and threatening them with legislative vengeance was a bad move, so bad it had me laughing out loud.

Although I was a less than enthusiastic Biden supporter, I now think he was the perfect choice and I’m glad he was the candidate. He has his own Teflon of sorts in that it’s really hard to make hate stick to him. And the completely performative nature of conservative politics means Biden can do what he thinks is best for the country without much caring about what the opposition thinks, because the messaging has become so disconnected from reality. No matter what he does, the message is going to be “radical socialist leftist destroying America”.

But is this enough? I don’t know, the biggest issue is that 74 million people have bought into the greatest sunk cost fallacy in history, and I don’t know if we can overcome it. But I think we have hope. I’ve seen attempted reboots of TV shows that were cancelled despite having a large fan base, and those rebooted productions have never been very successful. I hope the same thing happens if they try to reboot The Trump Show.

Trump would easily win the nomination if he ran, he would probably win every single primary. As far as the general if we run anything but a non threatening old white guy we’d get wrecked.

Trumpers have been going hard after Harris they might think she will run in 2024. I think >50% Biden does not run.

Power is addictive, even if you don’t need an all-consuming job to push back the burden of family tragedies from the front of your mind.

Have the claims that the Republicans stole many an election six months ago had any traction in the USA?

I don’t know DCReport, are they just a bunch of loonies? Anyone can say whatever in the net, but claims like

In a Dec. 4 filing in Georgia, Trump’s legal team referred to a “machine-controlled algorithm deliberately run” by a voting machine vendor, Dominion Voting Systems. They allege this algorithm “generally took more than 2.5% of the votes from Mr. Biden and flipped them to Mr. Trump.” So Trump’s own legal team, instead of providing evidence of fraud by Biden’s side, may have inadvertently revealed fraud benefiting Trump.

sound interesting. I guess if only half of the article is true not only Mr. Trump, but any Republican could run and win in 2024. But I also guess if those allegations were credible they would have been more widely circulated and I would have heard from them much earlier. Does anyone know more about this?

This is America. Always bet on racist and stupid.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised, for three reasons.

  1. Projection. Frequently - very frequently- when the Republicans accuse the Democrats of wrongdoing, they’ve been doing the same thing, only 10 times harder. It’s actually a pretty good strategy, one that has been developed and refined by abusers. If you get your own frivolous accusation in ahead of your victims very real accusation, you make it a lot harder for them to make a case.

  2. Rural and small town governments are notoriously corrupt, especially when the town is dominated by a large fundamentalist church or cult. There have even been cases of such governments orchestrating widespread federal benefits fraud. I’m sure these governments are perfectly capable of adding fake voters to their election rolls or rigging the local vote in other ways, and they might be motivated if they believed radical BLM socialists would burn down their town if they lost. I would certainly be more confident of the election results if they audited the counties where the number of voters seems out of line with the population of the county.

  3. When the entire right wing universe began trying to drive Dominion Voting Systems out of business in the wake of the 2020 election, I wondered “Why Dominion? Who would benefit from this?” The answer was a company called Election Systems and Security, a company that is heavily referenced in the DC Report article above. It could be nothing, ES&S is the dominant company in the election machine business. But it’s interesting that they’ve been suspected of cheating.

Sometimes I get this nagging feeling that it should be suspicious at the way the polls were so far off, maybe they weren’t as wrong as we think. I’ve frequently said privately that the Democrats won because they outvoted the cheat. But I say it privately, because (unlike half the country) I don’t make big public accusations without evidence.

DC Report is a reputable site. The claims being made in that article are not fantastical, it’s real journalism and the author of the article is careful to make clear she is pointing out “concerning anomalies” she is not proclaiming as fact that Kentucky’s elections were messed with or that fraud has occurred, she is saying there is enough evidence to justify an investigation.

DC Report was started sometime during the Trump Administration by David Cay Johnston, who is a Pulitzer Prize winner and has written books on tax and economic policy and done reporting for a number of major wire services and other periodicals for over 25 years. He was the one who first got a copy of one year of Trump’s tax returns, and went on Maddow’s show to talk about it, he made reference to his DC Report site when he was on the show.

Media Bias/Fact Check confirms that it is a valid cite for news.
DCReport.org - Media Bias Fact Check

The core truth about 2020 is no one knows what the turnout numbers means long term. Anyone who says they know, is full of shit.

But I do think we can narrow down “what it means” to a few different scenarios.

Scenario A - Donald Trump genuinely inspired a lot of low propensity voters to cast ballots, and converted some non-voters into Trump voters–this part is factual, as in we know that it happened. However, as a demagogic candidate and leader, these individuals were essentially part of a Cult of Personality. This means they do not indicate any particularly good things for Republicans long term, or Republicans in any election where Trump isn’t on the ballot. This effect was so strong that it even had major spillover into House and Senate races, saving lots of Republicans who may have otherwise met their demise in 2020.

At the same time, Trump inspire a huge amount of hatred and disgust unlike any other recent candidate, and just as Trump’s charisma pulled a lot of people out to vote for him, it also motivated a ton of people to bother to go vote specifically to remove him from power. In fact more people showed up to do that than have ever showed up for any election in American history. Just like the pro-Trump voters, this groundswell likely doesn’t tell us much about them long term, and many may simply retire to the sidelines instead of participating much in future elections.

Scenario B - Basically just a remix of above, except Trump actually ‘activated’ a silent group of right wingers that will stay activated whether he runs or not. But the anti-Trumpers he activated will only come back if he comes back.

Scenario C - Basically the opposite of B, Trump’s new voters end up being short timers, but the Democrats he created will continue to vote and stay Democrats for life.

Scenario D - Joe Biden actually is the reason so many people came out to vote in 2020.

So what’s interesting is none of these scenarios to me make it a slam dunk for Trump to run in 2024, from a Republican perspective. He either is responsible for the biggest groundswell in anti-Republican votes in history, and that is likely to be repeated, or Joe Biden had some magic sauce none of us understand and either way, Biden has already beaten Trump once. I would say something significant would need to change in the state of the country and the electoral coalitions for Trump to be the favorite to beat Biden in a rematch. Against another Democrat, it’s going to really depend on who that Democrat ends up being.

I know that feeling. Now how can harden this suspicion? The article I linked to was published almost five months ago.

That is good to know, but it will not be enough. But thanks a lot for the information. At least I did not link to some crap.

Might you by chance point me to more information about this? My dad is one of the rubes.

And on topic, yeah tr@mp can run and win. Especially with all the red states doing whatever they can to keep Dem-leaning voters from voting and invalidating or voiding the Dem votes that slip through. And because more people voted for tr@mp in 2020 than in 2016, even after he shat all over the US for four years.

My only hope is that tr@mp’s health and age keep him out of the running, that he won’t be able to stand on a stage and repeat the same basic phrases over and over like he has before. Although they could probably just play a recording of his greatest hits and prop him against a wall and he’d win.

… or the federal department of corrections.

I have little hope for that. Congress couldn’t even impeach the guy, which should have been fairly straightforward, considering everything he did, and carries only a political “punishment” so it’s not like there was a risk of him suffering unfair and overblown jail time on trumped-up :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes: charges or something.

Yes, but he wasn’t impeached for tax evasion or fraud, and grand juries don’t have to face voters.

I find it somewhat encouraging to consider that if Trump wants to run in 2024, he doesn’t have the advantage of incumbency. He also has the disadvantage that dozens (if not hundreds) of flinty-eyed opportunists are privately salivating for their shot at the Presidency in the next 4-8-12-16 years. That can’t happen if people named Trump keep handing one another the keys to the White House. It certainly can’t happen if people named Trump transparently rig elections to hand themselves permanent victory.

I think the Republicans will make a very public show of backing Trump all the way up to the primaries, and then one day someone quietly “forgets” to close the latch on his Pandora’s box of criminal and scandal exposure. Then it will be “tut tut, the evil lib’ruls have persecuted our innocent hero Trump so unfairly. But until he’s fully exonerated, it’s our sacred duty to carve up his legacy among ourselves. You know, so we can uphold it and glorify Trump forever. That sort of thing.”

By then it will be too late to change Trump’s status as heir and king.
Remember, his Pandora’s box was already wide open when he ran the first time, and nobody cared.
He’ll still be able to shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and get re-elected.

He’ll be unopposed in the primaries, and the flinty-eyed opportunists will wait till 2028. After Trump wins the White House, they’ll jump into action, competing with each other, fawning over the king to win his favors, and thus position themselves for running in 2028.

I take your point, but you can’t shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue from a jail cell, or if you’ve fled the country.

Personally I think there are enough of them that somebody won’t want to wait. It’s not like 2028 assures them a shot, especially when the guy may just decide elections are too big a hassle. Then nobody gets a shot.

One thing that works against him is that Don has four years to run his yap. He isn’t going to tone down his message and while that works to motivate his base, that also works to motivate voters against him (81 million last time). Couple that with a few million more new voters who oppose him by almost 30 points and the loss of a couple million more due to Father Time (yeah, these are about fitty-fitty but it’s still a net loss for Trump) and the odds against him continue to grow.