So far we’ve had 4 infections in the US which are not traceable to someone going to China or other places where there’ve been breakouts. So the virus is out in the community, spreading hither and yon. They’ve all been on the West Coast, but that doesn’t mean the rest of the country is safe. These four are just the beginning; there should be plenty more all across the country in the next couple-three weeks.
Are presidential candidates going to have to stop holding rallies because of Covid 19? Cancel the conventions this summer? Hold the conventions via Skype?
I work in the trade show/convention business. I have already lost two gigs to COVID-19, one early May and one in late June. I expect to lose more.
Yes, one show I do is talking about no attendees but still having the presenters show up. The entire thing, every single session over 4 days, is already broadcast on the internet live and then available for later viewing on the company’s website, so this would just mean that every session is done in an empty room instead of one filled with people.
I’m hoping they don’t do that, because it would be a terrible trend for the industry.
The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.
At this point in time we cannot say how far coronavirus will spread, how infectious it is, or what the death rate is, but the best guess at this time is that it is about as bad or perhaps slightly worse than a typical flu season. It does not merit massive quarantines, travel shutdowns, or cancellation of almost all public events. It’s true that some countries have gone that route anyway, but as more data becomes available it will become clearer that the danger has been exaggerated, and pressure will build to cancel such extreme measures.
I agree it’s greatly exaggerated. But people are starting to panic and that leads to bad decisions. France has cancelled all indoor events with more than 5000 people. If we did that here, they’d have to cancel the NBA and NHL seasons, or start playing in empty arenas.
Overexaggerated? We don’t know yet. Yes, many more people have died of flu, malaria, and other ailments - because MANY MANY MANY more people have been exposed to those. Death rates of flu are low while mortality of CoViD-19 is much higher as far as we can tell. But any estimation is tough because lack of transparency at political levels.
How far and fast can a pandemic spread? If we think markets possess “wisdom” and investors risk their money on data, not ideology, then this one looks really, really serious. We’re what, two months into this? The US conventions are still what, over four and five months away? Much can happen by then.
Here’s a wild-ass speculation. Dems are realistic and set their convention as online only. Few delegates are infected. GOPs, buoyed by White House insistence that the Dem-media plot is squashed and everything is just hunky-dory, especially with the Mexican border sealed, gather en-masse in Charlotte. Everybody is infected. Numbers of Tramp delegates die but he’s nominated anyway. Big deal; as the crisis spirals into autumn, the election MUST be postponed. Mail-ballot states will object. Too bad.
Spreading the virus in the US population will be pretty effective voter suppression.
The federal government has no Constitutional mechanism by which to “postpone the election”, nor does it have anything to do with the process. Presidential elections occur at the state level.
If Covid-19 is still around in November, it might give Trump a slight vote boost, because rural areas with no lines or only short voting lines might not be afraid to show up to the polls, but in densely packed urban centers like Miami or Pittsburgh, people facing very long lines might be more afraid of virus contraction.
Or, conversely, the epidemic will have already been through Miami and Pittsburgh and gone, so voters will show up, but because it was delayed getting to the rural areas by November lots of folks in the sticks are sick in bed and don’t vote.
We just don’t know what November will look like sitting here in March.
Could states cancel the elections and have their electors chosen by the state legislature? I see no reason why not unless the state constitution forbids it. Certainly the US constitution leaves it up to the states. I assume this would give it to Trump on account of gerrymandering.
I won’t be surprised if Orangeanus says, “I won’t get it because of my orange makeup” at a convention and starts to sell Trump brand face concealer and medication.
If, God forbid, I came down with the virus I think I’d buy a MAGA hat and show up at one of his rallies being sure to shake the bastard’s hand. After all, he’s said it’s no big deal and anyway, he has Topp Men working on it.
I’ll have to practice working up a tear while saying in a quavering voice, “Mr. President, sir? Thank you for ridding us of this dread disease.” He’ll lap it up.
It’s not just the rally/convention attendees that could be at risk. All of our current presidential candidates are in their 70s (except for Tulsi), some of them with medical histories that put them at an increased risk for serious complications or death from Covid-19. For the next 8ish months they’ll all be out there shaking hands and kissing babies, while probably not getting a lot of sleep.
Simply no need to hold conventions now. They will be all about Trump and Biden. They can have everyone give their speeches from a TV studio. Other things can be voted on online.
I’m sure Trump will fight tooth and nail to keep his coronation party so maybe the GOP will have it anyway.
I’m not sure I understand the gist of your post. Are you thinking the thread was prescient? If so, I’ll take a bow, but I don’t think epidemiologists would agree.
Democrats have already moved theirs to August and are talking about having a virtual convention. I haven’t heard anything about R plans, but I’m sure many of them are thinking the same way.