Bwahahahaha!!
As a spoiled observer, let me tell you it is/was a daily occurrence.
Well, paul, what I want to point out is, even if you aren’t modkilled, if you don’t play, you don’t have a vote. And I don’t see any way that Town isn’t at lylo. So keeping you in the game even though you aren’t playing won’t work.
I realize you feel the game is already lost. But others don’t. And losing due to modkill or because a player basically quit is annoying as all get out. That game with faithfool’s first time proves that. I’m not saying you need to tough it up and get back in there. You just need a sub.
And I think you can ignore Meeko, if only because someone else in the thread is going to have to clarify what he means. You can just read the clarification.
OK, I just tried to read the thread and I got a headache. I’m as much to blame as anyone, I suppose, but we really never actually played mafia, did we?
Bah, I hate being wrong (well, part wrong: I thought he was the OTHER kind of scum).
I’m really surprised that peeker wasn’t targeted. Perhaps tonight? Or maybe he’s a blackheart after all?
Should be a boring day in one respect: We know who will be lynched. Without paul’s vote, though, this could get mighty awkward tomorrow.
Chronos, would it be trouble to rerun your analysis both with and without assuming rystro as a blackheart? Just curious about the results.
Heh. If you’re the BHs, it rolls around to an hour before Dusk, and neither paul nor peeker have voted, do you attempt a quick and obvious vote-shift for the quick win? I have to say no, if for no other reason than that the last investigator investigation misfired.
I’d say no, too. Have the BH’s lost any players at this point? I think they may believe they can afford to lose Rysto. As it is, he’s pretty much the only suspect out there. I mean, we suspect Mahaloth, but no one in that thread seems to.
Concur, mostly. If there are two town lurkers who haven’t participated at all in the week I’d probably go for the win, but otherwise I’d sacrifice Rysto. I’d probably do a “all mafia on deck 10 minutes before dusk” thing though, an hour is too much time.
There’s also the possibility that Rysto is town and the mafia have a redirect power. It would require a hell of a coincidence, but it’s not beyond the realm of the reasonable. Smart money says off him though.
Oh, I think I figured out why Thing Fish died: Paul suggested investigating him, and allwalker received no other suggestions. If you assumed that allwalker was going to follow that advice, it’s worth offing him for that alone (prevents a confirmed non blackheart from sitting at the table).
ROTF!!
That kind of sums up the whole Meeko experience. Personally, I just stopped reading his posts somewhere around the middle of Day One.
That was an interesting, albeit frustrating, game to play in. I was trying to play it as townie as I could, and it doesn’t seem like I drew much suspicion either in the game or here.
Telcontar, what made you think I was scum?
Four things:
1.) an ill-feeling that I couldn’t particularly describe or justify going into Yesterday.
2.) That your role PM (and Mahaloth’s) were direct copies from Joey’s, even though I was beginning to think the PMs varied a bit this game.
3.) That you came out strongly against Allwalker (at the same time as Mahaloth) even though this was not the “book” play.
4.) That you kept being closely associated with Mahaloth, who I’m as suspicious of as I can be without actual proof.
There were probably a few other things around the claiming that I was slightly worried about, but the details escape me. If I was still playing I’d have kept a note.
Helpful?
The person who gets redirected almost always knows their target has been changed. To do otherwise is gastard. Anytime the mod gives out unreliable info, it’s gastard. (Insane townies are also gastard. As are steal-the-win Jesters.)
I’d even argue that having a scum who detects as town without informing the detective of this is a bit gastard, though, due to the fairly commonplace nature of it, it’s not too bad. (Still gastard, IMO.)
I don’t have my program at this computer, but I can tell you the results: Zero possible arrangements of scum, with everyone getting a score of zero. My analysis inherently assumes that AllWalker was giving reliable info: If we introduce a Scum diverter into the mix, then we basically can’t determine anything.
But that’s fine, because Rysto has now confirmed that there isn’t a Scum diverter. Think about it: Suppose that Rysto is, as he claimed, innocent, and therefore telling the truth. There must then be a Scum Diverter, to account for the result of his investigation. Said character, being Scum, would of course want a lynch of Rysto. And Rysto had already said that he intended to use his power again, as confirmation of his role. So all that being the case, why wouldn’t the diverter have targeted Rysto last night, to call his verification into doubt? Heck, even without the bonus of triggering a mislynch, if Rysto is Town, then he has the last remaining targetable Town power, so he’d pretty much be the diverter’s only possible target.
OK, back at my program. Thing Fish coming up Sinner cuts down the possibilities by a fair margin: Without making any assumptions about Blackheart buses, we only have 24 possibilities:
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
(0 = Mahaloth, 1 = paul3, 2 = Joey, 3 = Thing Fish, 4 = Rysto, 5 = AllWalker, 6 = peeker, 7 = Stickler)
Further, I strongly suspect that peeker is a Sinner: His claimed power is meaningless, given that AllWalker only saw starting alignments anyway, so his PM was probably faked, which makes him a liar. If we add that assumption, then we only have a mere 6 possibilities:
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
OK, this doesn’t help us much, since it just gives us the same odds for everyone unknown. But now, if we put back the assumption of no Blackheart buses…
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
01234567
Hmm, OK, that only rules out one possibility. Net result is, if I cram in every assumption I consider at all reasonable into my sausage grinder and turn the crank, Mahaloth and Inner Stickler each appear to have a 60% chance of being Blackheart, and paul3 and Joey each appear to be at 40%.
Well, 2 and 4 I can’t address due to fear of spoilage, but I will say that I absolutely believed AllWalker was a BH and would have made the exact same case against him if I had been Town. Why do you feel it isn’t the “book” play?
I suppose you could say that it is less damaging to Town to lose a Doc rather than a Cop, but I am still traumatized from Doperville where Town lost due to dithering around trying to decide which of the two competing Cop claims to lynch and ending up lynching neither of them, thus gaining no information. I thought the fact that Rysto did have circumstantial evidence supporting his claim, whereas AllWalker didn’t, made the choice pretty clear. As it is, although the mislynch is obviously unfortunate, it did provide Town with very useful information; AllWalker has been able to verify the alignments of two living players, which isn’t a bad performance for a Cop at all.
One could argue that a game with an Investigator and one-and-a-half Protectors (paul1 being the half) makes more sense than a game with no Investigator, but two-and-a-half Protectors. Of course, one not familiar with the book also wouldn’t expect the existence of a fake doctor.
Couple of points:
Given a game this large, it would have been rather odd to have no investigator, and there were no competing investigator claims.
Most false cop claims come at extremity: the person is either drawing suspicion or it’s endgame. Neither was true here.
Falsely claiming someone is mafia is really dangerous in a game with reveals, especially when you don’t know if there’s a true cop claim waiting.
His claim was consistent with the color (not crucial, but suggestive).
He’d obviously been baking his claim for a long time (the breadcrumbing).
More telling was the over proliferation of doctors, especially given that Rysto had the fairly rare “confirming doctor” sort of power. It was really suspicious. There were also a couple obvious missed saves throughout the game (ed for instance, I’d have protected him every turn after he came out). No clear PM in his instant response? Also, Physic? Everyone else who had a power had a more meaningful title (either a name from the color or paul’s period appropriate Traveling Preacher).
On top of all that, a quick look at the color screams “false doctor,” though pede could legitimately screw with us there.
Your case amounts to a point i made up thread: We know with reasonable confidence that Rysto is causing the “healing feeling.” The argument hardly ends there, however, as I thought you realized and were hiding.
Well, you two make good points. I’m not sure it would have changed my mind, but I sure wish you had been around to make them in thread. I think the BH did a great job of killing people off in order of Mafia savvy!
It did seem plausible, even likely, to me that we were at LyLo, and that our “mislynch” of “Townie” Rysto would have ended the game. Without that assumption, I agree that it makes no sense for someone not under pressure to false claim Cop. I was fooled by Rysto’s aggressively jumping on AllWalker’s “slip” about being at LyLo.
peeker’s false claim which won Doperville for the scum had also been breadcrumbed from the start, so I didn’t regard that as much of a point for AllWalker. What’s that they say about generals always wanting to use the tactics that would have won the* last* war?
But the thing I am really kicking myself for missing is that if the scum were going to try to false claim Doc, it would have been unnecessarily risky for them to do that early in the mass claim. If that ray of light had penetrated my thick skull, I think I might have avoided playing into the scum’s hands.
Nah, actually, now that I think about it, I would have rationalized it by saying “Clearly, it was decided early on that AllWalker would prepare a false Cop claim, as demonstrated by his breadcrumbs. Therefore, it was just bad luck for the scum that he was called to claim early on”.
I really enjoy playing this game (at least with some people…) but clearly I just don’t get it yet. Counting this game (which I do, since I was sincerely trying to hunt scum), I have now played ten Days as Town and have succeeded in voting for scum exactly once.
Well, maybe I shouldn’t count Day Two of this game, since my vote for paul then was motivated by a desire to protect that worthless shmoo Pinkies. I didn’t really think my case was very convincing and was afraid I would catch heat for it. So I’ll say I’m 1-for-9.
And you might have been right. Mafia is fundamentally about playing the odds. Lots of "I think"s, very few “I knows.” That’s one reason i found meeko so annoying yesterday: He “knew” he was right.
Oh, there’s some disagreement on this but personally I don’t believe in the ONE scum tell approach to mafia. People make errors of wording, reading, tracking, etc all the time. Allwalker’s claim that we were at LyLo was one datapoint, but it was coming from a player who had otherwise not been very scummy and it was rapidly explained as a simple error of wording. Far more important are the posts that track everything a player has done throughout the game. Patterns are can be very damning, especially for the lie-low and blow-smoke mafia.
Pinkles…
I wish I’d been a sinner. I love being the bad guy in these, you have a sense of control. I didn’t like the cases against paul in general, and that’s part of why i had a bad feeling about you going into the mass claim. The problem was that you had a lot of company in that “mistake.”