Eh, I was reasonably certain that paul1 was Scum, too, since his play wasn’t very good for Town… I just wanted to give him the chance to prove himself. I was actually a bit surprised when the outcome came out. And I didn’t actually particularly suspect Pinkies: I just wanted to save paul, and a lurker was the next-easiest target (and really, lurking was the entirety of the case against Pinkies, which isn’t very strong, either).
I wish you had been, too!
Had I been Town, I would have agreed with you, Chronos; at first actually thinking **paul **was likely scum, but then willing to suspend judgment after he claimed. Of course, his failure to explicitly say that he was willing to allow his claim to be tested made it much easier for me to stay on his case…
What the H E Double Hockey-Sticks did paul just do?
I think he’s trying to stick to his ‘non-participation’ but indicating who he thinks is another BH?
maybe?
I don’t know. How else would he communicate without talking?
That’s my guess, also he might still trust rysto (though what happened to inner?). I hope that he doesn’t leave his vote there though, could give the BH a chance for a last minute vote switch if Joey is town.
Based on what we know/are probably all assuming:
paulwhoisaghost (probably innocent based on nervous breakdown)
Peekercpa (claimed, sinner friendly town)
Inner Stickler
Joey P.
Mahaloth
Meeko (Mason)
Rysto (Scum false doctor)
3 Mafia at large, possibly peeker for the sinners if his claim is true (if peeker lives to the end he’s got to be a blackheart, they have every reason to want him dead asap if his claim is true). Unknown number of living sin infected non-prayers.
Two of Inner Sticker, Joey P, and Mahaloth are probably mafia. I’ve wanted to kill mahaloth since day 2 or so, but have no strong feelings about the other two. Personally I’d kill Rysto and then Mahaloth while watching who votes/dies in the meanwhile. Honestly I rarely think further ahead than that; i tend to only be alive at the end if I’m mafia.
Y’know, I was sort of thinking that, but on the other hand, I’ve seen more scum faking nervous breakdowns to build up Town cred, or to sow general confusion, than I have genuine Town nervous breakdowns.
And peeker really ought to be a priority target for the Blackhearts, except that technical difficulties are apparently keeping him away from the board right now (and I think it was a mistake on paul’s part to point that out). Not being on the board means he’s not voting and not Sinfecting, so as long as the Blackhearts know at least one of their number to be non-Sinfected, they have nothing to gain by killing him.
I agree on Mahaloth, incidentally: He’s been my #2 priority all game, but Townies kept on sacrificing themselves to saving him by doing scummy things. The tough part is going to be to convince Meeko to vote for him, though: Town needs every vote right now.
Oh, one other point against Mahaloth: Despite clearly seeing paul’s vote for Joey, he didn’t make any comment on the bizarreness of it. Every actual Town player should be looking at him like he has three heads, for that one.
But posting in the forbidden thread? angel was mod killed for less, iirc. I could see pede leaving him in the game so as not to toss it to the BH, but that’s pretty much the only reason to keep him alive.
I take it Ped isn’t going to be addressing the Paul issue before the end of the game. For those unspoiled, it has been asked multiple times in the Scum board too.
If Peeker doesn’t show up again and Paul leaves his vote there, it leaves town open to a BH switch even if Joey is scummy as scum-scum-scum.
I just noticed something. In the first version of my mathematical analysis, Rysto didn’t come out looking all that bad, but Mahaloth and Inner Stickler did. But Rysto very quickly came out against my plan, and shortly thereafter dug up some old, old material to use against Mahaloth. Now that we know that Rysto is Scum, both of these are consistent with the assumption that Mahaloth (or possibly Stickler is Scum and Rysto was attempting to defend him: First he calls into question a method that would finger Mahaloth, and then he throws off the assumption of no scum-on-scum votes.
Incidentally, I deliberately did not include any votes after I unveiled my hypothesis, since after I pointed it out, there was a clear incentive for Scum to vote Scum to throw it off. Rather than WiFoM-ing whether they would or not, I decided to just ignore all that tainted data.
I also noticed that Inner Stickler voted for me based on that analysis, but that’s not so telling: If he is in fact Town, then it’s natural that he would be suspicious of an analysis that makes him look scummy.
This game is technically still going on, though it’s been dead the last few days. i hope pede shortens it going forward.
Smart analysis chronos. I wonder what the next Dawn will bring (assuming the BH don’t pull a vote switch, which i would at this point if rysto was a BH and joey wasn’t).
The door is still open for a last-minute BH switch.
It doesn’t actually matter whether Joey is a Blackheart, only whether paul3 is one. If paul3 is a Townie (or at least, non-Blackheart), then we currently have two Town votes on Rysto, one Town vote on Joey, one Town (or non-Blackheart) who’s not voting, and three Blackhearts. If all of the Blackhearts switch to, say, Meeko at the last minute, then the final total would be Meeko 3, Rysto 2, and we’d have a Blackheart victory. It doesn’t matter what Joey is: Even if he’s a Blackheart, it’s not enough at this stage to vote for a Blackheart; you have to vote for the same Blackheart as the rest of town.
That also assumes peeker isn’t some kind of alpha blackheart, of course.
If peeker’s an alpha (of which I am almost certain), he’s probably Sinner, not Blackheart. I just can’t see him name-dropping a false name in his claim (too much risk of a counterclaim), and there’s no way, from the book, that Reverend Dimmesdale would be on Roger’s side, not Hester’s.
Final prediction:
Rysto is Roger
There are two other Blackhearts, being two out of Mahaloth, Inner Stickler, or paul. If the game doesn’t end right now, then my highest suspicion is on paul, followed by Mahaloth. On the off chance that paul changes his vote back to Rysto at the last minute (it might have been a ploy to draw out the scum), then it’s Mahaloth and Stickler.
peeker is in fact Dimmesdale and is an alpha Sinner (started off Sin-aligned, but would always detect as Town). I’m guessing that Thing Fish wrote the false role PM, since I don’t think that peeker can fake a sane voice.
Joey P and one of the three I mentioned under the Blackhearts are Town.
In paul’s mysterious vote for Joey, he listed the names of Joey, Mahaloth, and me. I wonder if he might be thinking that since all three of us used the same PM, and I turned up scum, that therefore all of us must be scum?
Of course, that would be ludicrous; it is at least equally possible that Joey and/or Mahaloth are Town (or BH) and that I copied their PM after they had already posted it. Of course, if** Joey**, who posted the PM first, is scum, that means Mahaloth must also be, but you can’t work that logic backwards. But paul is not the sharpest knife in the drawer, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that is what he is thinking.
Truly, this game is getting almost painful to read. The BH have been doing a great job of nightkilling in such a way as to reduce the collective Town IQ with every kill…
It looks like if the BH have their act together, they can probably pull a last minute vote switch and put the game away.
And there it is!
Yep.
BTW, since the game is over, you’re wrong about Peeker, Chronos.
He wasn’t in communication with the other sinners originally. (Ever? Don’t know, never saw the sinner communications.)
It’s why TF was riding Freudian/Peeker so hard.
TF, I almost cried I was laughing so hard when you stole my fake PM. Not only that, you ASKED me for it just a few posts earlier.
As soon as you did that, we knew you were safe to NK because me and Mahaloth could claim you stole our PM since you asked for it.
Yes, both joey and I were so lucky no Vanilla Town countered the fake PM