Damn Yankees.

The BBQ Pit
41

The same Oakland Athletics that lose in the first round every year because they have no nucleus to build around and lose players to bigger markets all the time? Oakland picks up jobbers here and there and they have been smart enough to pick good ones in make the playoffs. But since they are a small market team, this is the best they can ascribe to. They cannot make a push for that one star player who would put them over the top because they can’t afford it.

And yes, teams being out of contention IS a bad thing. Look at the NFL. The NFL is the biggest, most popular, and dare I say best run sports league in the country and maybe the world. And one of the hallmarks of the NFL these days is fact that it is not dominated by a handful of teams every year. And the reason why is it not is that there is a salary cap and revenue sharing.

42

Not picking on you in particular, but every point I want to address is here.

It’s not so much that the talent isn’t there, but they’re not battle-tested. Which pair would you rather take into the playoffs?

[quoteGranted, Brown’s an injury risk, but if he’s healthy then the only team that might have a better rotation in the American League is Oakland. [/quote]
Damn big if there. And, when he’s been healthy, has he been dominant?

Make that “at best”. This isn’t original, but it’s apt: “The Yankees are now a softball team”.

How old is he? When does he break down? Where’s his speed anymore? How effective can he be in a big park? Do you really think he can repeat his contract-year effort, or will want to? Remember who we’re talking about here.

As a DH. Now he has to play the field on shaky knees.

An expression of optimism there. Not as easy as it looks

Then why don’t you?

But Lowe, Wakefield, and either Kim or Arroyo do. But who does have a dominant rotation anymore, like the old days? You don’t need one; you just have to be better than the other guys’ hitters. The rest of what you say is also wishful thinking, but hey, that’s why they play the games.

You’re forgetting Williamson and Timlin getting back on form in the playoffs, and now there’s a real closer for them to set up.

And very critical, wouldn’t you say?

Might be some dropoff, sure, but will still be better than, say, a healthy Aaron Boone.

Kim blew more saves than that all by himself is how. The number of games doesn’t totally reflect the real difference.

Thanks for agreeing with something.

Interesting graphic in today’s Boston Globe shows that hits/HR/RBI totals for A-Rod + (Wilson or Cairo) almost equal that of Soriano + Boone for last year. So, no real net improvement in hitting, but the Yanks now have no speed, no serious baserunning threat, unknown defense but no way as good. As already stated, they’re a softball team now, but one expected to win the Series.

Oh, and Greg Maddux’s career is done too, with Questec now in place leaguewide. He doesn’t get those strike calls a foot off the plate anymore. The Yanks can have him; looks like no one else does.
Incidentally, yes, sure, the Sox could have handled the payroll, but the balk that killed the deal was Hart’s, not Henry’s. It screwed the White Sox and Dodgers, too, don’t forget.

jarbabyj, were you thinking of Abe Saperstein, the Harlem Globetrotters owner?

43

Actually WorldEater the merchandising revenue is shared equally between the teams. The Yankees benefit no more than any other team on the amount of Pay Rod Jerseys they sell. They will benefit from the additional ticket sales that he is expected to generate.

Boston already has the highest ticket prces in MLB. Increasing the price of tickets is exactly what is wrong with the system. Screw the regular sports fan out of every penny possible.

ESPN.com has a collum today claiming that the Yankees will just about break even at the end of the season. I don’t buy it but that is what they are saying. $290.5 mil in revenue and $290 mil in expenses. I would like to know when was the last time, if ever, that Steinbrenner operated at a loss.

I can’t believe anyone can think this is good for baseball. Good for the Yankess? Yes. Good for Pay Rod? Yes. Good for Baseball? No. Hell I am a NY Rangers fan and I am disgusted with how they handle the team and its payroll. The only differnce between what Stenbrenner and Dolan is that the Yankees win.

The NHL will most likely be in a lockout at the end of the season and hopefully they put a better system in place. And the salaries is only one of the problems with the NHL today.

The only reason the NYR were able to get Jagr is becasue the Capitols outbid themselves just like the Texas Rangers did. They over paid Holik just like GS over paid for Giambi. They pay Messier way too much just like Jeter.

AlI I have left to say is LETS GO METS!!!

44

Maddox is going with the Cubs.

Schilling and the big unit made a nice “rotation”.

45

No, Abe Sapien, the pale, pasty amphibious creature from the Hellboy Comics.
World Eater:

The whole point is, not every owner HAS the purse strings. Being in the number one market and having unlimited money PLUS a cable deal that brings nothing but profit gives the Yankees an unfair advantage if there’s no cap or profit sharing. Do you honestly think the owner of the Royals has the same advantages? Even if he poured out the contents of his bank account on the table, he couldn’t get A-Rod. All the talent is priced out of everyone’s league but the yankees.

46

I agree that not everyone has the purse strings of Steinbrenner, but as I mentioned before, the Sox could have and should have signed A-Rod. It wasn’t because they couldn’t afford him either, it was because they were too cheap. IIRC your Cubs are owned by the Tribune company, which has plenty of dough, if they would just pony some up. It’s important to realize that no one is going to get to the level of Steinbrenner in a week, but if they take chances and spend money, there is no reason they shouldn’t be able to build a contender. If we gave Steinbrenner the reigns of any team right now, 15 years from now he would still come out on top, so I don’t want to hear about that bullshit. He’s just one coldblooded insane motherfucker who has a knack for winning. Most of these owners get the luxury tax money and pocket it instead of dumping it back into their teams. It’s all cyclical, Yanks spend money to make even more to spend more to make yet even more, etc.

47

As a lifelong Yankees fan, of course I want us to kick ass every year and beat everyone. HOWEVER, more than being a Yankees fan, I am a baseball fan, and I agree with you that the same teams winning and the same teams losing every year is simply not good for the sport. This year generated the kind of excitement that has been missing in years past. To me, that is what baseball is. It isn’t simply about winning but about the 9th inning dramatics, the Steve Bartmans (poor guy) and the feeling in the pit of your stomach watching the games.

Other than the oft-metioned salary cap, I’ve no idea how to get this back in the game. The one thing I would like to think is that players play for a certain team for reasons OTHER than money (like Ripken, Brett, even my boy Tino Martinez headed home to Lou). Until that happens, you’re not going to get the owners to stop buying a winning player. Why would they? (Except of course here in Chicago where they field the cheapest team possible.)

48

Actually it has been shown that the less Steinbrenner is involved in running the Yankees the more sucessful they are. When he was banned from baseball is when the team scouted and drafted and developed players like Jeter, Petite and Williams, to name a few. I would bet the farm if he was in charge back then he would have traded them for some big name players. Look how they sent Branden Clausen, their highest pitching prospect, to Cincinnatti for Boone. That trade has Stienbrenner all over it. And when the trade dosen’t work out…just add more money

Back in the late 90’s all the Yankee fans were so proud that they develpoed many of their players. They also benefited from being able to afford to keep them via multi mil $ contracts. All they have left are Jeter, Posada, Williams and Rivera. George’s Yankees are now playing in the Bronx and it will be intersting how all the high priced egos will play together.

There is a reason they are called “small market teams”. Their revenue is limited as such. Find me a small market team that can break even with $290 million in expenses.
BTW I don’t think it was an mentioned here but an article in todays Daily News, Soriano states that admittted last year to the Yankees that he is actually 28 years old. 2 years older than originally believed. Tom Hicks was told this in the negotiations.

49

Pal, I’m not really worried about the Cubs this year. My reference was to other baseball markets that AREN’T owned by gigantic tubs of cash. The Royals, The Twins, the Devil Rays, the Reds, The Tigers. They simply can’t fork over $252 million for A Rod, unless he’s willing to play every position AND sell hotdogs.

50

Is this the reason? Or is it just luck? The playoffs are pretty much a crapshoot. In a short series, a bad team can beat a great team often enough that it’s pretty meaningless as a tool to decide who is better.

Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to lose to teams in smaller markets in the playoffs.

Right. This is the point. They don’t need megabucks to be one of the great teams.

There are plenty of big market teams that would love to reach the heights that Oakland has reached.

I don’t think so. You bring up the NFL, but I really don’t like what the NFL has become. A different team winnign every year. It’s almost impossible to have any long term success. WInners seem to be more of a coin flip than anything

51

And yet, when the NFL was surpassing MLB in popularity during the 70s and 80s, it was dominated by a few teams. The Niners, the Cowboys, the Steelers, etc.

I really don’t think that’s a reason for anything. The real hallmarks of the NFL that allowed it to pass MLB was smarter marketing and gambling.

I’d respond to Elvis at this time, but that much parsing makes the baby Jesus cry. :slight_smile:

Just wanted to add that Prospectus is projecting Boston to have the best rotation by far in the American League. 383.4 VORP to Oakland’s 292.2. NY is in third with 284.9. (VORP is Value Over Replacement Player, meaning that’s the number of runs they’ll be better than a rotation made up of replacement level players. Replacement level players are defined as +1.00 above league average ERA.) So you may be right on that score. I’ll believe it when I see it, though.

The above is re Brown.

Yes, he has been quite dominant. Last year he pitched 211 innings with a 2.39 ERA. In 2000 he pitched 230 innings with a 2.58 ERA. In 1999 it was 252 IP and a 3.00 ERA. 1998, 257 IP and a 2.38 ERA. So yeah, I’d call that dominant.

Note, though, he’s spent most of his career in pitcher’s parks (Pro Player and Dodger Stadium) and when he was in the AL he never pitched below 3.32 ERA. Which is still pretty darn good. However, it wasn’t until his second season with Florida that he started striking people out at a 7+K/9 rate. But it doesn’t look like his home run rate really dropped that much when he moved to the NL.

So I don’t know what’s going on there.

52

Domination in the playoffs is what matters. It’s pretty much a given that both teams will be there, and the one that’s best suited to win then is the best team, record against the Tampa Bays of the world in July notwithstanding. That means shutdown pitching, which the Yankees used to have and the Red Sox not, with Pedro out. But whose pitching staff would you rather have in a seven-game series now? If you’re happy with an injury-prone Brown and an unproven Vasquez and Contreras as your starters, and a possibly-fading Rivera with no solid setup man to get to him, that’s fine. But I’ll take Boston’s 3-man staff instead, wouldn’t you? The bullpen may be a tie, but NY’s is not clearly better when it counts anymore.

As for the offensive side, here’s a quiz: Which team scored the most runs per game in MLB history? No, not the 1927 Murderer’s Row Yankees; they’re second now. Give up? It was the 2003 Red Sox. Now, take the best lineup ever, remove one midlevel hitter, and add a complete rotation and a solid bullpen, and they’re going to *lose * Game 7 now to a team that is not clearly even as good as last year’s model? I think not.

Just to scare you a little, there’s talk (yes, I know) that the Sox might be talking with Texas about how much they’d want for Soriano.

Lighten up, people. This is why they play the games, and it’s going to be fun.

53

You got a point there, ElvisL1ves. It doesn’t really matter who wins the AL East, because both teams will make the playoffs and lose to the Twins. Yeeehaw! (OK, probably not, but they don’t even play a game for 7 weeks so right now anyone can win.)

54

I disagree that it’s a given that both teams will make the playoffs. I think that the M’s, A’s, and Angels also have a good shot at the Wild Card.

First off, no, I wouldn’t. I’d take Mussina, Brown and Vasquez over Pedro, Schilling and Lowe. Vasquez will be better than Lowe this season. In fact, Vasquez is a heck of a lot more proven than Lowe seeing as how he’s consistently thrown under a 4.00 ERA with over 220 IP the past 3 seasons. Brown will probably pitch about as well as Schilling and while Pedro is definitely better than Mussina, let’s face it, he’s not going to last much past the sixth inning.

The Yankees still have shut down pitching. And while Foulke is better than Rivera, it’s not by much. Foulke strikes out more people, but he also gives up more home runs and extra base hits. In other words, one mistake by Foulke is probably going to hurt you a lot more than one mistake by Rivera.

As for set up men, why wouldn’t you consider Quantrill a quality set up guy? Frankly, I consider him a lot more reliable than Williamson or Timlin. I’d consider Gordon about the same as Timlin. I definitely agree that New York’s is not noticeably better than Boston’s however.

You need to check your history better. The Sox held the team SLG record, not runs scored. They didn’t even clear the 1,000 run mark over a season, whereas both the 1931 Yankees and the 1936 Yankees cleared 1,060. In fact, the 1927, 1930, 1932, 1939 and 1998 Yankees also scored more runs than the 2003 Red Sox. So did the 1950 Red Sox, the 1930 Cardinals and the 1999 Indians.

Now then, we are taking the best lineup in baseball last year. Removing one mid-level hitter. Realizing that Mueller and Varitek probably won’t match last season’s production. Nixon might not, but I think it’s 50/50 because he’s on the right side of 30. Millar and Ortiz should probably produce at about the same rate. I don’t think we really need to go over Nomar, Manny or Damon as I think they’re pretty much givens at this point in their careers.

That said, the Yankees lineup has also definitely improved. Matsui should do better this year. Jeter won’t be missing a third of the season. A-Rod is better than Soriano. And they’ll have Sheffield at the plate which is a big upgrade. Of course, Lofton is a downgrade from Johnson and I really don’t think Posada is going to be repeating last year’s performance. At worst, the Yankees break even, but I think they’ll be a little better offensively than last year.

They also have a better bullpen and a reliable way to get to Rivera. And Brown and Vasquez will be a big upgrade over Pettitte and Clemens. Now, I’ll definitely agree that Contreras and Lieber are question marks, but I seriously doubt they’ll be terrible. And of course, all this goes out the window if Brown gets injured. But I don’t think he will.

That doesn’t scare me. I hope they do go get him. I want the Sox and the Yankees to beat the living crap out of each other. And my team (Angels) doesn’t have to race against either to make the playoffs. As we all know, anything can happen in the postseason. So I’m really not too concerned with what the Yankees or the Sox do, except for the entertainment value that offseason moves give me as I listen to both sides shriek when the other team makes a move.

Couldn’t agree more. I’m really looking forward to this season.

55

Alright, I’m bowing out of this thread, because It’s getting way out of my league, with all your nerd stats and such. :smiley: (actually I’m impressed) Basketball is my game not baseball, so I’ll leave this one to you guys. Neurotik, I’ll catch up with you in the next Knicks thread. :slight_smile:

56

Basketball is depressing to me right now. The Lakers keep falling and the Knicks haven’t turned into the sideshow I thought they would. Plus, I have to deal with my Knicks-fan roomie bragging about how the Knicks are going to the playoffs. Definitely not as much fun with him as the last two years. :frowning:

57

That’s right, I forgot we were both pulling for the Lakers. I’ll be starting a thread sometime soon, and I’m sure the Knicks will implode by then, so we’ll have plenty to talk about.

Now back to talking about the Evil Empire!

58

Neurotik, if I may bust out my inner stat geek, I’d like to argue that if you’d take Mussina, Brown, and Vasquez over Martinez, Schilling, and Lowe, you’d be making an enormous mistake. Here are the raw numbers for each of the six over the last three years (note that Lowe’s numbers are for the last two years only, as he spent the bulk of 2001 as a relief pitcher).

BOS -
P. Martinez: 25.7 starts, 167.6IP, 11.1K/9, 2.0BB/9, 2.29ERA
C. Schilling: 31.3 starts, 228.0IP, 10.6K/9, 1.4BB/9, 3.05ERA
D. Lowe: 32.5 starts, 211.5IP, 5.1K/9, 2.6BB/9, 3.53ERA

NYY -
M.Mussina: 32.7 starts, 219.7IP, 8.1K/9, 1.8BB/9, 3.53ERA
J.Vasquez: 33.3 starts, 228.2IP, 8.3K/9, 2.0BB/9, 3.52ERA
K.Brown: 20.3 starts, 130.1IP, 8.1K/9, 2.9BB/9, 3.28ERA

All right. Now, we can safely assume that the numbers of the three pitchers who’ve spent the last three years in the National League - Vasquez, Brown, and Schilling - are likely to increase at least slightly, given that they will now face American League lineups and be deined the easy out of the pitcher in the NL. The AL League ERA was 4.53 in 2003, vs. 4.28 in the NL, a difference of around six perecent. Brown, in particular, is coming from one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, so we might expect his numbers to inflate most of all. In order to try to demonstrate this effect, I’ve increased the ERAs of Vasquez and Schilling by 3%, and of Brown by 4% (obviously, I’m estimating). With that in mind, our league adjusted ERAs are now 3.14 for Schilling, 3.63 for Vasquez, and 3.41 for Brown.

Both Martinez and Brown have had substantial injury problems and missed a lot of starts, so I’m comfortable calling that aspect of the staff comparison a wash; if either of them misses a good deal of time and the other doesn’t, the balance swings decisively toward the uninjured rotation. Derek Lowe is clearly the worst pitcher of the six; his ERA resembles Vasquez’s, but Vasquez has strikeout numbers that suggest improvement or at least steady performance. Lowe’s peripheral stats suggest that he may yet backslide.

The problem is this: whoever you match up against Lowe is better than he is, yes. But whichever two Yankee pitchers you choose to match up against Schilling and Martinez, the Boston pitchers are way, way better. Martinez isn’t just better than Mussina, he’s a run and a third better, and strikes out three more guys per nine. Kevin Brown is a very good pitcher, but Schilling will pitch better. His strikeout numbers are far superior to Brown’s, and Brown walks a full batter and a half more per nine. Throw Vasquez into the mix if you want, but neither his actual performance nor his peripherals can match either those of Martinez or those of Schilling. And Lowe simply isn’t so much worse than the worst Yankee pitcher that the overall mix can favor the Yankees.

If I have the energy and time, I might look into the bullpens, but that seems like a difficult endeavor given how wildly relief stats seem to vary from year to year.

59

Try to outgeek me, will you, storyteller?

Here are the ERA+ figures for the pitchers the past 3 seasons (starting in 2003, remember higher is better). Remember that ERA+ is relative to the league and park adjusted so it’s fairly accurate comparison between leagues.

Brown: 169, 79, 152
Mussina: 129, 108, 142
Vasquez: 153, 106, 135

Pedro: 212, 196, 189
Schilling: 159, 136, 154
Lowe: 105, 171, 128

Yankees: 451 combined in 2003
Red Sox: 476 combined in 2003

Well, looking good for the Sox, but here’s the thing. We know Pedro isn’t going to pitch as many innings as some of the other guys on the list. So we need to take that into account, or let the good people at baseballprospectus do it for us.

VORP figures:

Pedro: 71.9
Curt: 70.8
Lowe: 23.0

Brown: 60.2
Mussina: 50.4
Vasquez: 54.7

I used Curt’s 2002 VORP because I didn’t think it would be fair to penalize him for some of the freak injuries that took him down last year. Everyone else’s is their 2003 VORP (park and league adjusted for your convenience).

We can see that Boston’s rotation is 165.7 runs over replacement, while New York’s was 165.3. They’re really about the same.

However, Vasquez is only getting better each year and he’s just about entering his prime now. Which means I would expect him to a bit better next year. I think Pedro will decrease in effectiveness this year. I don’t see him pitching more innings than last year and you can see that he had a three year high in ERA+, which I expect to slide back a bit this year. I don’t see Lowe improving much this year and I expect Schilling, Brown and Moose to do about what they did last year, maybe with a bit of a dip.

Now then, which would I want in a 7 game series? Give me New York’s. I’d rather not have Lowe coming in to pitch twice. Brown and Moose aren’t really much worse than Pedro and Curt, but Vasquez is much better than Lowe. If one of your front two screws up a game, who would you rather give the ball two in game three, Vasquez or Lowe?

I’ll take Vasquez.

60

Lowe’s 2003 form wasn’t half bad. And now he has a better bull pen and better D. Their rotation is solid.

Brown had 32 starts last year, but had just 29 in 2001 and 2002 combined. He’s getting up there in years. He can still bring it when he’s healthy, but…

Leiber? There’s a question mark. Vazquez? Will he be able to handle the spotlight? A lot of talented guys haven’t been able to. Who knows?

Can these guys play together as a team? Probably, but Brown and Sheffield are not known for that.

Personally, I think they have a fearsome line-up, but they are not invincable. Boston still has a shot to beat them. Especially if the Boss can’t keep his mouth shut.

It matter not. Whichever one wins will be defeated by the mighty Angels of Anaheim!!!

Go ANGELS!!!