So I went and prepared a lengthy and elaborate response to your last post, filled with statistics and evidence and all that good stuff, and then I previewed and forgot to submit. Lacking the mental energy to repeat all that research, I’ll just say that I think your whole thesis is based on a dubious premise: that Pedro Martinez is somehow likely to miss a substantial number of innings and/or starts, while Kevin Brown - who is 39 years old and has missed way more of both than Pedro over the last three years - will not. If you’re going to assume, as you do, that Pedro’s production will slip, on what basis do you assume that Brown’s will not?
Because, to be frank, Pedro doesn’t have the capability to throw more than 100 pitches in a game anymore, nor can he pitch 200 innings. I think they can expect 180 from him. And it’s not so much that his production will slip, but I think last season made it pretty obvious that he just can’t handle a massive work load anymore.
Brown, on the other hand, can. Brown can pitch deeper into the game nowadays than Pedro. Is he injury risk? Sure. But I don’t think he’s a serious one. He had the surgery to correct that junk that held him down in 2001 and 2002 and came back and pitched 211 innings. I think the Yankees can expect over 200 innings for Brown, probably meaning he’ll last an inning longer each game than Pedro.
Brown is also a groundball pitcher moving from a team with good infield defense to a team with bad infield defense. He’s 39, has been hurt a few times lately. There is a good chance he’ll fall apart. It isn’t certain, but I’d say he’s extremely high risk.
ESPN has #P/GS stats (which I stupidly assume to mean an average of pitches per games started. I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong and I will be embarassed).
Over the past 3 seasons, last year first:
Pedro 97.9, 103.3, 99.4
Brown 97.1, 75.6, 92.5
Both players have had to deal with injury shortened seasons in that span, but I see nothing to suggest that Brown is capable of going deeper into a game than Pedro.
Pedro has held up well when rigorously held to 100-110 pitches, which comes to 6 innings against a team that knows it and has enough bat control to work the count deep in the early innings. That’s 7 innings against the lesser lights. In the 8th, well, we know now. As long as he’s held to the same discipline, there’s no reason to expect him to break down. His temperament is always a question, though, and he’s a little pissed over his contract situation, being in his last year. Dunno how that will affect his pitching. Do we know if Brown has been managed that way too, or will be this year?
Williamson, say the stat geeks, is unreliable as a setup man. Yes, he was for most of last year, while his kid was in the hospital for months on end. He did admit that he had trouble concentrating on pitching. But the kid came out in September and will be fine now, and Williamson immediately became as effective as he’d been for the Reds. Could anyone touch him in the playoffs when he was closing? Now, not only should he be a rock-solid setup man again, he can close when Foulke isn’t available, and can even take over the role if need be.
But you guys won’t find stats for “ERA with kid in hospital”, willya? Players are human, not machines, and that is too easily forgotten. The effect on team chemistry, unnumericizable and therefore also easily overlooked, of Joe Torre possibly losing some of his grip with the Yankee players who know he has 9 toes out the door already is something that should give their rooters pause as well.
As long as we’re talking about intangibles that don’t show up in the stats, let me point out the most important fact of all: they’re the Red Sox. They’ll blow it sooner or later, no matter how healthy Pedro is or how well Schilling pitches.
As for Williamson, he’s a good pitcher and will perform well, unless he is asked to save a clinching game of either the World Series or a playoff game against the Yankees, in which case, like all Red Sox, he’ll choke.