Looks like you’re spot on.
I’m at school right now, but I’ll be present later this evening.
He could also be a Rolestopper. The story doesn’t seem to make clear whether the person kidnapped was Karl or Karl’s intended victim.
In response to Prof. Pepperwinkle: If you think it’s suspicious to cast a first-day vote for a clearly-stated, logical, strategically sound reason, and stick with that vote in the absence of any strong evidence against any other player, then I don’t know how to help you.
Seriously?!
Last night I mentioned that the vote order matters a lot more to me than who a person voted for. I’d like to expand on that now that it’s day again.
All I know for certain is my own role, of course. But, I can also guess a few things based on peoples’ behavior. For example, I don’t hold it against Suburban Plankton that he voted for me. I made a vote against him that was basically random (after it was determined that my admittedly flimsy reasoning was in fact completely wrong), and he made a revenge vote. He could be town or scum.
Also, I know that Hooker Chemical is town. I emphasize this because it’s the strongest opinion I have about anyone else. There’s no reason for a scum to switch his vote off me when I was so close to being lynched. I know the rest of you can’t just accept my premise that I’m town, but if (when) I eventually die and it’s revealed that I’m town, you’ll know with rock-solid certainty that Hooker Chemical is also town, and I hope you remember this post.
I’m also reasonably certain that scum would not have wasted the chance to lynch me if they could have. Therefore, I’m guessing all of the scum players are represented among people who voted for me. Also, I’m quite convinced now that there are fewer than 3 scum, as I’m pretty sure 3 scum could have influenced the vote enough to lynch me.
Without counting Hooker Chemical (because he’s NOT SCUM) the badguys are two (or maybe only 1) of the following:
Suburban Plankton (voted first, probably not scum but maybe)
Prof Pepperwinkle (no lean for me one way or the other)
Plumpudding (third vote, starting to look suspiciously like railroading)
Astral Rejection (5th vote, “trading bodies for evidence” comment in post 143 bothers me. And the timing of it is also suspect, as it seems to me like the whole post is meant to avoid the next-day scrutiny of my lynch result.)
VOTE ASTRAL REJECTION
If I had two votes, the other would be for Plumpudding.
Thank you, HookerChemical. I think you’re probably Town. (And furthermore, that whole Love Canal business was not entirely your fault.) But we can’t rule out the possibility of a false claim.
Just to point out one thing: I’m sure we have at least two villains, because Dante has described two villains in his story – Hans Gruber and Karl – and put both their names in red.
Well, I too appreciate all the extra commentary,Dante. It’s actually more what I’m used to from days past in the types of games I played(many versions & styles, as you know), and I always read closely, as sometimes Mods toss a crumb out here and there, even if by accident.
So, thanks for taking the time.
And, yes, Prof. P, I do have several things to discuss toDay, hopefully to the benefit of us all. This is a smallish game though, and Town can screw it up pretty easily, pretty fast. We still need to be careful - we caught a huge break, and need to capitalize on it.
I partially agree with you, Prof P and Tomba’s on my basic radar for the reasons you mentioned, anyway.
I also have an issue with the way Astral landed on me with both feet yesterDay. Pretty strong for just being Day one, and Town really has little to nothing to go on that early.
I intended to bring up the matter of Mosier’s close call, and the reasons for it. We still have to sort that out one way or the other. I almost did jump on that bandwagon, but as I have mentioned, I tend to be overcautious a lot of the time, especially early. It’s just how I play.
That’s the pool I’ve been fishing in so far.
On preview, I see while writing this post Mosier’s added some significant information to process. Looks like I might have made a good call for once. Nice.
I’m going back to read over all the commentary again just to see if I did miss something in Dante’s story arc, and reassess the latest info.
Post-Preview:
After looking over Mosier’s comments, I hope he’s correct and not just playing some complicated cover game or something. My gut says no.
Town could, if convinced of this, have two out of ten, at least until the next NK.
I repeat the obvious: we caught a big break last night, so what can we do with it now?
OK, got some reading to do, then I have to get a few things done around the house. I’ll be back on later.
Some thoughts:
I keep going back and forth about the number of scum in the game. Three seems like it would be too many but two seems like it would be not enough.
Unless I missed a post, Tomba never gave a reason why he voted for Mahaloth. That screams scum to me.
Astral looks to be playing aggressively, which could go either way.
More thoughts tonight when I’m not on my phone.
Sario, was it not obvious that I was voting for him because he was lurking? I gave that reason for initially casting a vote for Plumpudding. Then when Plumpudding stopped lurking, I acknowledged it and, in the same post, switched my vote to Mahaloth. I suppose, looking back, I should have added “… because he’s lurking too.” But I thought it was already generally known that Mahaloth was not posting much.
As it happens, I was just about to say that I am suspicious of players who ultimately didn’t cast a vote yesterDay. If I recall correctly, that includes you.
Also, on review: I apologize to Astral Rejection for my initial reaction to his post casting suspicion on sangfroid. sangfroid also failed to cast a final vote and, as Astral pointed out, really didn’t do much at all except ask for advice. He says he’s a newbie; well, what we are seeing could be a clumsy newbie’s attempt to hide in plain sight.
So now the two players who did not vote are expressing suspicion of me! Interesting.
I hope any of this makes any sense. I’m pretty tired.
This can be pretty dodgy, you know. How much does why a player voted matter to you?
This post makes me lean slightly town on you, Mosier, however:
I think you’re overlooking the fact that there are some players who want to lynch, and others that do not want to lynch. This tells nothing about alignment. It is not inherently scummy to want to move the game forward. I think not wanting to lynch is a bit smelly. Not lynching was just as much of a gamble, if not more, as a lynch would have been.
I’m not sure you are town or scum, same with HookerChemical. I am sure I want to lynch someone, on the best grounds possible of course. Anyway, I’m relieved no one died tonight, this resets the clock. And we did learn of a role.
My part bolded. Any info you’d care to share? Any new interpretation that could shed some light?
He posted more than **Mahaloth **and Suburban Plankton, without casting a vote. I’m looking forward to hear why.
To everyone who didn’t wanna lynch yesterDay: Do you wanna lynch toDay? Or should we just postpone the game until the thread goes inactive?
He did vote last game as far as I remember, but he was just as cryptic and sometimes unhelpful(no offense!) last game. There is a chance he could try to blend in as scum using the same confusing posting style, but he should for sure know by now that it really makes people suspicious. So for now I lean on sangfroid just being sangfroid.
Plumpudding: off the top of my head, here’s some of the info we have.
We know Astral was pushing hard for a lynch, any lynch, just to get “information”. Highly aggressive, definitely. In my opinion, too aggressive. Suspicious? Maybe.
We know Sario and sangfroid didn’t vote. I would say that’s insufficient aggression. Also possibly suspicious.
In answer to your last question (because I think you may be including me in your set of people who “didn’t wanna lynch”), I would have been perfectly happy to lynch Mahaloth for lurking. I didn’t want to lynch Mosier because I didn’t find him particularly suspicious. I will definitely cast a vote toDay.
Am I crazy, or could we use our nights better?
We had a two day Day and a four day Night. We’re apparently allowed to talk shop, as long as we don’t post suspicions or vote. Wouldn’t it be useful to keep talking during nights? It could potentially force scum off their boards and over here, because if we keep track of post counts from EOD it would be obvious who’s here or not.
Or was it just a lack of interesting things to talk about?
I’m very glad people are posting, and content is increasing.
Tomba, going back over your old posts, I see your point. If you didn’t think Mosier was likely to be scum, you had no reason to change your vote off Mahaloth, who is still apparently having trouble getting online.
Mosier, you’ve made a good case that if you are Town, Hooker probably is as well, and, of course, the reverse would be true.
If I remember correctly, Hooker said he was going to be unavailable for most of this Day. Am I right on that?
Sangfroid, congratulations on stepping up to the plate. Keep it up!
I don’t think Ronan the Accuser (aka Astral Rejection) is scum, because accusing everyone else in turn and seeing how they jump is the exact opposite of lurking. And lurking, as we all know, is bad.
Sario’s not voting is suspicious as well, as is sangfroid’s.
Since Plankton’s just newly back from vacation, it’s too early to estimate his Towniness or Scummitude.
As for Plum: Who can tell?
BTW, for those who don’t know about this board function, post counts for each poster in the thread can be found here:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=770413
I haven’t had time to do more than loosely follow along today at work, but I needed to comment on this: that’s an awesome nickname. 
To be fair, the reverse isn’t necessarily true. If Hooker is definitely town, there’s no particular solid reason for you to assume that I am also town. I know it seems counterproductive for me to argue that, but it’s important to note in case a situation comes up like this again.
No, I meant if you’re scum, he probably is as well.
Got it, that makes more sense.