And you may not be under hideous time pressure, but as an outed scanned townie who lynched the godfather, in spite of the events of today, **I **am under time pressure.
Yeah I may reverse my opinion on Diver. His votes would be correct, but not locked in, iirc. Have to double-check. That implies perhaps PIS but no willingness to truly bus. It’s possible.
Also I’m not as comfortable with Weedy being a top suspect; the vote pattern on the day septimus was tied for the lead implied apathy as I mentioned before, and the responses to my questioning seemed pretty genuine. But I admit, there’s nothing truly exonerating.
On that note, one thing you should do while you’re here is come up with mass-claim order if we decide to do one.
Pardon? I’m not sure if I understand.
I doubt there’s many unclaimed townies left in the game that aren’t NPCs. Certainly none with any substantial powers.
My preference would be to clear Red Skeezix with the power roles, except, my suspects are those power roles. As such, I can’t rely on them to do that.
So assuming they’re townie and Red is guilty, I’d advise Inner Stickler to protect himself or the tracker (flip a coin), and have the tracker look at MentalGuy or Diver (flip a coin).
I can’t advise a mass claim tonight. Only tomorrow in the morning, and ONLY if there’s any evidence in Red Skeezix’ favor… like a dead scumbag, or no kills.
Yes, but you might not be alive in the morning. So if we’re going to get our confirmed townie to give us the order, it has to be now.
(I realise that we’ve had a lot of claims, but there’s a fair few of us who are “vanilla by default” and it might be worth locking every one in officially. Again, we may or may not do it, but you have to give us a non-tainted order toNight.)
So my remaining thoughts on that subject for tonight would be, to put it plainly-
** 1) track Diver or MentalGuy**
** 2) protect Inner or Suburban**
** 3) lynch Red Skeezix unless he kills a scumbag**
** 4) Don’t mass claim unless Red Skeezix kills a scumbag or nobody dies.**
Your suspects would be:
- Red Skeezix (unless he kills a scumbag, and if he does not) LYNCH
- **MentalGuy **(tracking results will indicate if this one gotta die)
- **USCDiver **(tracking results will indicate if this one gotta die)
- It’s a wash between gnarly and choie and weedy. Maybe just kill pedescribe.
Sleeping now for reals. Only gonna get like 5 hours of sleep now. Damned addictive game.
Stanislaus just wants a townie-provided claiming order in the event that it becomes desirable.
About the only thing I’m comfortable saying right now is that at least one of my suspicions on Red, Suburban, and Inner must be wrong, lol.
I want to do the vote records so bad right now, but OMG work. I’ll try to drag up at least the end of day totals, though.
vote records for most of the game are highlighted in the “Septimus and votes” 5-post I did. Refer to that for easy reference for any round besides this past round.
Post 1594-98
Someone post the end tallies though because I did that thing really fast and I could have skipped a post or two.
I thought that was just Septimus-related votes and unvotes. Edit: never mind, I think I remember you pointing out other ones as well.
I need to turn this computer off if I want to sleep.
No, that contained ALL votes in the game, related or unrelated to septimus, and ALL comments related to septimus.
It’s sort of a useful tool people should be using… or have skimmed once. I think I missed a post or two but thats 99% of the work done for you already.
Then fill in all of Skeezix’ posts if he’s scum, and voila, I’m still helping from beyond the grave.
Use my knowledge, I beg you. Learn to use the dark side of the force…
Even if I suck at theorizing… this time… I still find ways to kick ass.
Well, thanks, but waitasecond. Why is it unusual for us to want to take a look at the folks who railroaded an innocent lynchee? Isn’t that standard gameplay?
Heck, look at your reaction after Silver Jan’s mislynching. Your initial comment was:
That sounded like gloating to me (which is why I’ve remembered it all this time later), but I figured it was understandable because you were right, after all; you didn’t vote for Jan.
Jeeze, even if what I’d written did sound like gloating, I think I earned it – for the first time in this bleedin’ game, I backed the right horse! Or rather, didn’t back the wrong horse. That’s a relief and a much-needed confidence booster. I’ve been so disgusted with my crappy judgment before then that I was ready to tell the rest of the good guys to be sure and vote opposite me no matter what!
Anyway I’m really pissed off that I forgot about that hour-earlier thing. If I’d seen there was an actual shot at saving Shadow I’d’ve doubled-down on Red Skeezix, no question. (Of course no one will believe me, since hindsight is 20-20. Besides, I suppose if Shadow flipped scum, then I’d have looked suspicious and people would be assuming I was desperate to save a scumbuddy. You can’t win!)
Can we just make the end of the next Day an hour earlier in advance, so we all get used to the earlier deadline?
In the final analysis, ShadowFacts was speaking the truth, and I think we need to go over everything he said carefully now that the filter of suspicion against him has dissipated. The case against Red Skeezix seems to me way stronger than IS.
That “hah” had nothing to do with Silver Jan’s flip; it was about Septimus’ last-second save.
Regarding your comment, wanting to look at the people who lynched a townie is one thing, seeming to be wanting to hold it over their heads as a sort of neon sign saying “hey look, they were wrong, didn’t I say there were wrong, we’re going to look at them now, right right?” is kind of another. I think, paired with your history in this game and especially the comment about Red (if Red is scum), that it’s understandable, but at first glance it gave quite a negative impression.
Why do you feel like you’re a higher priority than one of our claimed power roles? Because you’re confirmed?
You didn’t suggest “looking at folks” you announced you were going to be “Looking forward to voting, locking & loading on Red Tomorrow.”
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a dirty scum too, and I’ll probably be voting him tomorrow AGAIN, but I can at least entertain the possibility that he’s telling the truth, however slim that chance is. I don’t think anything is 100% ever certain in this game until it’s announced by the mod.
OK, this is surely confirmation bias in part, and less than meaningful to anyone who’s unsure of my alignment to boot, but day one Kellywagon:
Me, Shadow, stanislaus, MentalGuy, choie, Jan, Ed, Texcat, Suburban, Lightfoot, Diver.
(Mental Guy unvoted later on, and I voted Kelly twice. Diver was a late-day replacement.)
Given I’m leaning town pretty hard on both stanislaus and choice at the moment, Mental Guy really stands out in that list of the first 8 Kelly voters.
A couple random thoughts:
It seems to be that tracking Red Skeezix Tonight is likely to be a fruitless exercise. I’d wager a dollar that he does nothing Tonight, whether by his choice or the Scum’s.
If **Red **is Town:
The Scum will block him so that he has no chance to ‘prove’ himself. Given the current general feeling about him he’ll be lynched Tomorrow, and Scum are always eager to let the town do their work for them.
If **Red **is Scum:
The only way we can prove that is if he claims to have been blocked, but I track him and see him “using a harmful spell”. There are two ways to prevent that; either block/kill me so that I can’t report on Red, or choose someone else to perform the Night Kill. If they do the former, it doesn’t matter who I track because I won’t have a result to report, and if they do the latter I waste an investigation on someone who does nothing.
We don’t know if Inner Stickler can self-protect. He could *not *at Level 1 because he was a Paranoid Doc. This makes sense, as Sellf-protecting Paranoid Doc’s tend to create paradoxes. We do not know if he can self-protect now that he is no longer Paranoid, but the Scum would probably be perfectly happy if he did.
The Town has nobody left who can prevent a kill by the Scum Tonight (assuming all kills resolve simultaneously). The Scum have at least one Kill, and one Block. If **Inner **self-protects, then he’s not protecting anyone else, so the Scum can block **Red **and kill Suburban, and then block **Inner **and kill **Red **Tomorrow Night (unless **Red **has already been lynched by that time). This paragraph assumes that all three of us are Town. If one of us is Scum, then things are that much easier for the Scum.
Night 1
Block 1: Unknown (presumed Scum) blocked Suburban
Block 2: Inner Stickler (Paranoid Doc) blocked Special Ed
Scum killed Scathach
Night 2
Block 1: Inner Stickler (Paranoid Doc) blocked LightFoot
Block 2: Special Ed blocked Unknown (by virtue of Suburban seeing him acting, and knowing a block was Ed’s only Night action)
Scum killed Special Ed
Night 3
Block 1: Inner Stickler (Paranoid Doc) blocked LightFoot
Block 2: ShadowFacts blocked Red Skeezix
Scum killed nobody
Night 4:
Block 1: ShadowFacts blocked Askthepizzaguy
Block 2: Unknown blocked LightFoot
Block 3: Unknown blocked Red Skeezix
Scum killed nobody
No matter how you slice it, Nights 3 and/or 4 present problems with our current claims (Red/Suburban/Inner).
I’ve gone through every combination from all Town to all Scum, and all points in between, and they all fail to explain why there were no deaths on Night 4. I can come up with three theoris to explain why nobody died Night 4:[ul]
[li]There is either be an unclaimed Town Roleblocker/Town Doc, and he made a ‘good guess’ and blocked the Scum killer/protected the Scum target, depending on his role.[/li][li]The Scum chose not to kill for some reason. This could have something to do with the Day-kill of LightFoot, but I don’t know how.[/li][li]The Scum tried to kill LightFoot, and in case that failed due to the Doc, also blocked her.[/li][/ul]
Going back to Night 3, if Red Skeezix is Town, then there is another unexplained no-kill. The only ‘clean’ explanation for the Night’s events is that Shadow’s block of Red prevented the kill. Any scenario in which Red is Town requires one of the same ‘solutions’ as Night 4.
Like I was trying to imply earlier, SP, it’s not a given that a scum Red will be inactive tonight. For one thing, they may have no choice. It may be necessary for Red to be doing something, to accomplish everything they otherwise want to do. So don’t rule out tracking him up front, in case the WIFOM goads the scum into playing less than optimally. Do consider pedescribe (same reasoning as for Lightfoot last night), and do consider other suspects, but don’t rule Red out.
As to how much trouble the scum have tonight that really depends which of you is town and which scum. Inner will surely attract a block (or pretend to, depending), so expecting him to protect anyone is naive. Red will claim another, if the scum have that capacity.
I think that does leave you as the most likely kill, if you are town. Of the three of you you aer the only one who can’t hurt them in any way if left unblocked, but dead. WIFOM here we come, if you live in the morning.
I agree with this statement
Why would attacking **Pedescribe **be bad?
He is the one target that a Townie **Red **could shoot at in order to try to ‘prove’ that he is a Vig that doesn’t risk taking out an ‘active’ Townie.
On the other hand, I recall a conversation from a previous game that a ***totally ***absent player is actually a boon for Town…the logic being something like this:
If the player is Town, then they count toward the Town win condition, unless the Scum use a Night kill to remove them, thusd sparing an ‘active’ player.
If they are Scum, then they are not performing any Night tasks for the Scum, and they cannot assist the Scum in fixing the votes.
In either case, the absent player does not become a liability for Town until LyLo, or perhaps one day earlier, when their vote will be needed to prevent the Scum from stealing the vote.