I want people to note the following relevant facts, just because people are busy and they skim and are likely to just lock in on Red Skeezix without reading stuff.
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[li]** All the scums will lock in on Skeezix today and half the townies are voting for him.**[/li][/ul]
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[li]** I’m already locked in on choie. If you pick Diver or Hirka you’ll be one man short, even if it would be a nice sentiment, you’ll still lose the lynch.**[/li][/ul]
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[li]You have at least one, probably two or three, members of the town who won’t even bother to vote this round. So you have to make up your minds and be united.[/li][/ul]
That said, you do have one saving grace. By my mafia math, a lynch of townie Skeezix today, followed by a day kill of Inner Stickler today, followed by a murder of Askthepizzaguy tonight, leads to still enough townies remaining to lynch the three remaining lords of slaughter.
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[li]So if you absolutely don’t bother saving Red Skeezix, and HAVE to see his card, then you can still save this game. [/li]
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– I found his unvote of ShadowFacts on day two weird and unnecessary. As if he realized a possible contradiction in terms between his two votes and was uneasy about letting that stand, even though no townie on earth would ever have called him on it or even noticed.
– He’s by far a better townie than to have been so damn certain that Jan was scum on the evidence offered as of day two (much less as of day one). Lack of time has him not showing his skills here, but he is a VERY good mafia player.
– He was hanging around at the end of day two, when Septimus saved himself.
– “Somebody oughta vig this guy” could as easily have been him trying to draw in a vig for a hit he knew he would fail (or just something self-consciously said), as a breadcrumb that he was the vig. More easily, IMO.
– His second quote there doesn’t entirely jibe with his explanation of it later as vig-breadcrumbing. “trivial to fake if scum don’t think there’s a vig” – yet his own claimed role (Assassin) is named in Septimus’ claim. So OF COURSE scum would think there’s a vig, however they got that information. I know he said later that this was him trying to talk around the problem, but why do so with reasoning that is contrary to what you KNOW? Why not just leave that out entirely and use just the bulletproofs-aren’t-townies argument?
– ShadowFacts’ block and the no-kill. Yes, there’s a paranoid doc. But unless that color that Lightfoot provided DOES belong to a townie Inner Stickler, there is no way for the scum to know that. They blocked LF themselves every night.
– Septimus’ pretty dang blatant (to me) efforts to smudge ATPG and ShadowFacts in the event that Red flipped scum.
– (to a certain extent) the speed and success of the Septimus wagon when it finally took off the day he was lynched. I’d probably choose to save Red over Septimus myself, in that situation.
My only real reservations right now are:
– You’re right that Red (probably the default scum killer in this scenario) claiming town assassin in the event of a block or some such would have to have been around at least as an idea from day two, since it’s in Septimus’ claim and no other sign has been seen of any such player. (It is possible this was provided as a potential cover role.)
– Red’s claim came out only about three hours after SF claimed his block, and four or so hours after start of day. Even given that all the pieces would have to have been in place already, that’s fairly fast to get the t’s crossed and the i’s dotted.
– (to a certain extent) his absence. I don’t like to believe he’d disappear as scum. However the same applies for him as town, and I have to believe it’s a RL issue and a null tell.
Finally, of all the options as an alternate lynch to him today, I think I currently like choie the least. Bah.
Why does everyone want Red Skeezix dead in spite of arguments proving he’s townie to a degree you’ll never find anywhere? Even investigator claims aren’t 100% always coming from townies. This stuff is mod confirmed, and the arguments in his favor are more than solid.
Any scum teammate of his would be grateful to lynch a townie instead of letting him die. No one is nibbling.
He’s town, and the beguiler role description proves it beyond all doubt, and people’s desire to kill him prove it doubly so.
Aaargh. One word (“alive”) in a moderator’s role description against everything else? I can’t deal with this. I see the argument, dammit. Why do you have to make things so hard? I’d rather lose on my own idiotic convictions at this point (if they even are idiotic), then take a leap into the dark against them. Gah.
Devil’s advocate, Pizza – because the argument against him (the night three no-kill) is also very strong. Tehre’s just no good reason for the scum not to kill that night if it wasn’t to give ShadowFacts cover, and it wasn’t because Red was blocked, and it wsan’t because they had any reason to believe that LF would not be protected. Maybe they screwed up. Maybe they thought the doc might take the chance to protect Shadow, or you, or someone else. But would it have been good play on their part to take such a shot? Heck no. When an entire argument rests on teh scum playign badly, can you really not see why even scum teammates might not be too eager to jump on it?
But you remove ANY leeway for mistakes for the remainder of the game.
There can be zero mistakes after that point.
I strongly recommend against this course of action. If you have any faith in my judgment at all, consider what I’m saying.
Make up your own mind of course. See the card if necessary.
You have been doing this longer than I have. You know how to win games without detectives. You know how to work without a net.
I know you don’t even need to see him flip to know he’s townie. I trust that you’ll see it if you keep thinking. That’s my view anyway. But if you must, then join in with the scumbags themselves, and lynch him.
Sorry I haven’t posted yet toDay - I’ve been down with some lingering bug/virus thing.
On Red: Normal has just pretty much summed up my responses to Pizza’s defence (which was kind of her!) The central plank of the whole thing is N3. Shadow blocks Red: there is no kill. Scum were blocking Lightfoot, per her colour (if you like colour) and per logic (they have a blocker, she’s a claimed Cop). If you want to say that 2 kills went astray on N3, then you have to argue that the scum tried to kill Lightfoot, *despite *having a blocker, *and *that they thought there was a chance the non-claimed Doc would be doing something other than protecting the claimed Cop- *or *that they thought there was no Doc. This is at least as silly a scum plan as Pizza’s reconstruction of Red’s strategy.
Also, the fact that Red’s claimed failure against septimus matches septimus’ powers is a null tell. You’d expect a scum Red to get that kind of detail right.
On people who aren’t Red: will re-read now and post this afternoon. I need to revisit my case on Mental Guy, (which included some stuff that I thought would become relevant if septimus flipped scum!) and review Pizza’s other cases.
Around here mafia generally have a board set-up elsewhere, and they usually provide their orders there, not via PM. Vig Red could not have killed Suburban as far as I know (unless he sent in orders WAY early), but it is possible that mafia-Red could have, or that his teammates have been allowed to proxy orders in his absence (depends on the mod). Or even that they are simply doing without him.
This I don’t really understand – it takes balls to be scum and fight against something as seemingly slam-dunk as a no-kill coupled with a town roleblock.
Hirka, for the non-bussing teammate, and someone else (Diver? His first comment today was …) for the bussing one.
Hirka has double-voted Skeezix for death before, Normal. So has Diver. They aren’t his teammates. They do *seriously *want him dead. And they did those moves to save septimus.
That’s not his point, really; it’s that Astral’s description of the Beguiler role strongly implies a vig in itself, and thus far, Red is the only vig candidate. Unless there is another town role (mystic?) that might have gotten killing powers upon leveling up, that really is inconsistent with Red being scum.
At the moment I’m tempted to go with Pizza and double-vote choie – as strategy. I do think that she is a top candidate for scum if Red is town. It’s just unlikely to do any good even if Pizza is right.
As the Joker might say: You just couldn’t let me go, could you?
Apparently I’m wanted in this discussion to answer these kinds of questions. I’ll sleep after my work shift tonight.
I’m here, hit me with everything you’ve got. Let’s start from the top. I am very, very tired, but if you’ll give me short questions, one at a time, I’ll knock em all down.
Precisely. I’ve been in Red’s corner ever since the Beguiler flipped, and even before then. But there’s a reason I’ve been his defense attorney. He is way, way too busy to defend himself, and since everyone in the game is against him, he’s in no way capable of doing so. The evidence in his favor is as strong as it can get without the game host rapping us all on the head one at a time and going “psssst… he’s totally townie”.
If not the obvious double-power of the Godfather, the mere fact that no matter what evidence is in his favor, everyone in the game has pressed hard for his death, tells you that everyone in the game besides maybe pedescribe is not mafia with him, especially after septimus died. Their priority number one was not to follow through with operation bus everyone on the team. It was to eliminate town power roles.
Well, that one. I want Red’s partners ruled out in a way I can understand if I’m to really change my mind on this.
I’m a given. choie I take as given. Stanislaus I take as given. Pedescribe is irrelevant. Everyone else I want to see them trying to put Red underground where it would not have been a “if I don’t do this, I’m dead next” calculation for the scum.
Yes, there were votes for Red Skeezix for death after the septimus wagon began rolling. The folks who were trying to save him were Diver and Hirka T’Bawa.