De'endee Mafia

The Game Room
2542

Today’s color comes courtesy of ShadowFacts, who volunteered to write up some color while I recovered from near-certain death. Thanks, Shadow!

The townspeople of De’endee partied well into the night, toasting their success at lynching the ominously-titled Hexblade. But while the celebration ran long, it was somewhat subdued as many members of the Town quietly asked themselves: "Why did we let him live so long?" and “Why did I think that the ‘I am Scum’ tattoo on his forehead was just hipster irony?”

Ah, well, hindsight is 20/20, and they drowned their second guesses in copious amounts of strong ale.

Waking with a collective hangover, the Town was initially pleased to discover how quiet it was this morning. That pleasure quickly turned to concern, though. Every day since this nightmare began, they’d been woken early by AskthePizzaGuy standing on a crate in the center of town, loudly denouncing someone or other at great length. Invariably upon leaving their houses, they would find that he had plastered up huge broadsides on the various houses of the village overnight, detailing his elaborate schematics of guilt and innocence.

But not this morning!

As the townsfolk emerged into the cold, grey morning, they were greeted by only the intermittent and desultory cawing of a crow, who was picking at some food at the base of a house. Above the crow on the walls, nailed to the walls in place of AskthePizzaGuy’s usual broadsides, were a series of take-out pizza boxes. They were covered in sauce and cheese, which dripped copiously to the ground. The silence deepened as the townspeople approached the display and the crow flew off.

Closer examination revealed that it was not sauce. Nor cheese.

AskthePizzaGuy, an NPC townsperson and one of the Defenders of De’endee, is dead. Daybreak has arrived, and will last for four days and will end on Tuesday, August 23rd at 5 pm central time.

2543

PMs coming shortly! Should be just a minute or two.

2544

I hate you, roleblocker.

2545

Well, that sucks, though not totally unsurprising. ATPG, even though your wall of words every night was annoying, you will be missed, and while you’ve been wrong on your cases, at least you were making them, and making us think. This town will be much quieter without you… Though, I’m sure the spoiler board will be much louder! (At least now you’ll find out who the scum really is!)

2546

vote: Hirka T’Bawa

though I really woudn’t mind it in the slightest if anyone wanted to suggest a few good alternatives. I won’t be around much until Monday.

2547

Blimey. All that verbiage for nothing.

Well, hail and farewell, pizza. You were a smart but frustrating guy who insisted on being an adversary when in fact we were teammates. But you know that now.

The crazy thing is? I’m gonna miss him. He made some great cases and some spectacular blunders, and he had a rather worrying fascination with looking up my skirt, but in the end he was a compadre and I learned a lot from him.

Though damnit, I never did get that promise. :frowning:

Well, in his memory, I’ll do as I said I would.

vote Hirka T’Bawa

So Inner, you tried to protect pizza rather than yourself? Are you not allowed to protect yourself for some reason? Or did you just think pizza was more valuable than you?

2548

i’ve stayed up because of two exciting games but it’s 6am and need my sleep.

in the meantime,

Vote Hirka
Vote choie

2549

He does a hell of a lot more legwork.

2550

OMG, Normal, you’re not gonna be around this weekend?! This place is gonna be like a ghost town. This means – gulp – the rest of us are gonna have to start talking strategy waaay more than we’re used to. Our most vocal townies are either dead or incommunicado. :frowning:

2551

It’s a tragedy, isn’t it.

Salut, Pizza!

2552

Pizza, if you’d like spoilers, just let me know.

2553

Oh hells yes, that boy had better get the dang spoilers!!!

2554

I don’t want the spoilers, thank you very much. bows courteously

I am happy to just watch this in silence.

2556

You should at least hang out in the unspoiled peanut gallery thread.

I’m out of town for the weekend, posting from my phone. I’d be happy lynching Hirka today and choke tomorrow. After that if the game is still going, we might need to go ahead and get rid of pedescribe before it gets too late.

Vote hirka

2557

**vote Hirka T’Bawa
**
I started to be suspicious when I reviewed him yesterday. With Red Skeezix flipping scum, I am even more so. He saved RS on Day 5 with the most specious excuse (resetting the vote leaders to what they were earlier) and tried to give him an out Yesterday.

This is a nice excuse to let Red live a little longer, and meanwhile lynch someone else. Hirka votes choie for pretty much no reason at all, except that she’s not Red Skeezix.

Once it’s clear RS is going to be lynched, Hirka locks in on him.

This looks like he wanted his name on the lynch. He has claimed vanilla town so there is no justification for it.

2558

I’ve already mentioned my thought processes regarding Hirka, and they’re along the lines of yours, Weedy.

But we’re awfully silent today, and I don’t think we should be, even though it’s relatively early in the Day yet. Admittedly, it’s a lovely warm summer Saturday and few of us are probably hanging out playing Mafia. Still in honor of our late lamented doughy friend, we should examine everyone carefully.

  1. Let’s say Hirka is lynched and he proves scum. Who’s the next choice?

  2. Let’s say Hirka is lynched and he flips town. What does this indicate?

The remaining player list, in alpha order, is:

choie
gnarlycharlie
Hirka
MentalGuy
Normal Phase
pedescribe
Stanislaus
USCDiver
Weedy

(I don’t think I’ve left anyone out, did I? Edited to add: actually I originally forgot pedescribe, not surprisingly, and Stanislaus, which does surprise me!)

Anyway. Here are my questions for those with more games under their belt:

  1. So far we’ve hit two Lords of Slaughter. We’ve been assuming there were four in total to start with, so I’m assuming this means there are two left, right? Is there at all a possibiity that there’s more (or less) than that? With 21 players to start with, is 4 the maximum or could we be extremely unlucky and have a 5th Lord lurking among us?

  2. Related question: mathematically speaking, what is our worst-case scenario, as far as voting results go. Like, let’s say we mislynch today, and by some horrible fluke we mislynch the next day. Are we utterly screwed? In other words, how many Days do we have left assuming every scenario: a correct lynch toDay, a wrong lynch toMorrow… When is Lynch or Lose for us?

  3. If Hirka isn’t scum, who’s your second choice? I’m assuming for most of you it’s me. Let’s say we lynch Hirka toDay and me toMorrow. And let’s say I flip town. Who becomes the third most likely Lord?

For me, I’ll tell you who my current top suspects are, from most likely to least:

A) Hirka (obviously)

B)gnarlycharlie. It could be that we’re both town and unfortunately caught in a dyad of mutual suspicion – to me, he’s acting scummy by both his voting history and his double-voting of me yesterday; to him – if he’s by some chance an innocent Townie and his suspicions are genuine – I look scummy for presumably all the reasons pizza outlined. It’d be ironic if we both flip town. I don’t think that’ll happen. For some reason pizza was giving gnarly an awful lot of slack, and none of it related to his gameplay, but rather some “feeling” that charlie was gnarly. IMO, his votes have been wrong 95% of the time, except when he leapt on the septimus bus. That’s damning as hell to me. Plus my gut instinct is against him, and honestly my gut hasn’t been wrong in several Days. (I think it’s all the salad I’ve been eating. :)) He was doing what apparently is called “snuggling” with pizza yesterday, gladly lapping up the wrongsauce that pizza was spilling regarding my alleged guilt, and generally playing Iago to pizza’s Othello. I know none of the other players here should use that as a reason against gnarlycharlie, since you can’t possibly know I’m town 100%. I do, so, well, I kinda have to consider this a negative against the gnarlster. But I certainly understand why others may not.

C)pedescribe. I know this may be a controversial choice, but I just… I just cannot believe that a townie would really stay out of the game to such a degree, to the point of not even voting in three or four Days. To me that indicates not wanting to be pinned down at all. Is this really how he constantly plays? I just can’t fathom this guy at all. I’d rather lynch him than my fourth choice, simply because he doesn’t deserve to survive the game the way he’s been playing.

D) MentalGuy. As others have noted, he has been playing it mighty safe, which apparently is a bad thing. I admit I’m picking him because I’m influenced by Normal’s certainty, that his being hesitant equals trying to avoid giving oneself away. Unfortunately I know from personal experience that this isn’t always the case, and so I am kinda reluctant to ding someone for playing similarly to myself. Still, I’m looking around for more suspects, and here’s MentalGuy whom other people – people I have relative trust for – seem to find shady.

And yet… and yet, looking at the final vote lists, his votes are pretty much right on the money. His votes:

Day 1: Hirka/Koldanar
Day 2: Hirka/Koldanar and gnarlycharlie
Day 3: Septimus and gnarlycharlie
Day 4: Septimus
Day 5: ShadowFacts (okay this one was a misstep, but it’s one many townies seem to have made, so on its own, it doesn’t mean much to me)
Day 6: Red Skeezix x2

So he very early suspected Hirka and gnarlycharlie, two people I find most suspicious, and voted Septimus earlier than he had to. He also placed a double-vote on Red, which – interestingly – was his only double-vote. I guess that could read two ways. If he’s scum and you suspect me, it could be that he was trying really hard to save me over Red, except that doesn’t really make sense since we know Red was guilty. Or, if he’s scum, it could be that he wanted to boost his cred by bussing Red Skeezix extra hard, thus dispelling the “wussy/safe voter” miasma that’s surrounding him. OTOH, if he’s town, it could just be that he was making the right decision and was especially determined to see Red lynched at last.

Against him? Normal’s suspicion, which I think must be strongly considered. Also I suppose his good voting record could be explained by PIS. I’m far less convinced of that reason than by Normal’s.

E) USCDiver. Now he’s an interesting case. Split his votes on Day 1 for Kelly and Silver Jan, then went after pizza on Day 2. Day 3 he votes septimus before the bus really had gotten started. Day 4 he goes against Received Opinion to jump off the septimus bus and target Red Skeezix, who gets the remainder of his votes for the rest of the game till now. Interesting. I don’t think scum would bus two major players unless absolutely necessary (hence my top suspects’ delayed or non-votes for Red Skeezix yesterday). So Diver strikes me as most likely townie.

F) Stanislaus. The only ding against him IMO is his vote against TexCat on Days 2 and 3. (Day 2 his final votes were for Jan and TexCat). I excuse his votes for Kelly and Jan since those wagons were joined by almost everyone, including me. However, aside from joining the TexCat bus ride, he hasn’t stepped a foot out of place since. And he voted for Red Skeezix over ShadowFacts the day that would end with ShadowFacts swinging from a tree, which is, for me, kind of a litmus test. If he’s scum, he’s impressive.

G) Normal. I’m frankly embarrassed by my doubts against her early in the game, which were partly due to my instinctive mistrust over very confident people. A stupid, stupid reason, as I would find out. Also, I’d come to distrust pizza (this was before or slightly after LightFoot confirmed him), and the two of them were acting like codependent siblings. Anyway, that said, looking at her final voting record, she reads as Town to me. It’s kind of neutral, really: she’s wrong about some things (mostly ShadowFacts), right about others (Septimus and eventually Red Skeezix, although she was a little late in locking on him but I can hardly blame her for behavior – waiting to lock until later in the Day – that I vociferously encourage!) So overall her record seems highly natural. On a personal level, which I can only justify to myself, there’s the fact that she apparently doesn’t see me as the 2nd most likely suspect after Hirka – she’s aiming at MentalGuy instead. This carries significant weight with me and makes me trust her judgment. (Though I know it won’t for those who think I’m scum.)

The only thing that counterbalances this is the fact that she’s one of the best, most experienced players here, and I can easily believe that she’s just That Good as scum. :smiley:

Whew. Well, there they are. I’d be very, very interested to hear from everyone their thoughts on their own suspect lists, from top to bottom, as well as answers to my questions re: how the math works out.

Edited to add: Oh crapples, I forgot Weedy in my list o’ suspects. I’m sorry, it’s late now and I have to rush out. But I’d place Weedy about equal with Mental Guy on my list, probably a bit lower. Not an outstanding final vote record, but it reads as pretty natural, sort of average, what you’d expect for a townie. So I really put him/her in the middle of the list.

2559

If Hirka is scum, I think Mental Guy might be the other one (assuming there are 4). I haven’t really looked at gnarlycharlie, but I like Normal’s idea of one off, one on (the bandwagon), and I didn’t see too much wrong with USCDiver before. I don’t think Hirka is scum with you, choie, because he had little to gain from bandwagoning you. Once Red didn’t die in the night that would have left Hirka on his own.

If Hirka is town (less likely), then choie is more likely as a suspect to me, but I would have to look at gnarlycharlie. Mentalguy could be the second scum there as well.

Pedescribe is really starting to be a problem, since he could be town, or could be scum and we have no way of knowing. As long as I have active suspicions, then I think it is better to pursue those, but if it gets to a point where I feel vaguely townie about everyone left, then I would want to lynch him. But it might be too late to be wrong at that point. Maybe someone can work out when LyLo is.

2560

Hi folks,

Just a quick note to say that I’ve got family visiting this weekend so can’t really contribute right now. I should be able to log on properly tonight.

My general feeling is that the case against Hirka is good, but there are other cases that should get a full airing today. I’ll try to contribute to that later.

2561

interesting that you use the word ‘snuggling’ after i used it to describe your behavior towards pizza. i was in agreement with his logic. my words never came close to your ‘consoling’ when Red flipped scum.

as for my votes, you can say the same for a townie. you expect my voting record to be great? i didn’t know they were town. it’s as simple as that. pizza was wrong several times too and he was town. again, it is the context of the votes.

you like MentalGuy because his votes were for scum and for those you’re suspicious of? that makes him town? that’s self-serving.

i’d like to see when you started finding me suspicious at what your reasons were. will i find the same results as pizza when he looked to when yiou found Hirka suspicious?

2562

Erm… yes?

I’m sorry, is this really such a strange reason to find someone relatively trustworthy? Isn’t it only human and rational to trust someone who agrees with you on who’s townie and who’s scum, and who has a good voting record, and who doesn’t do anything you find hugely suspicious? At least you’d lean in that direction, wouldn’t you? That’s all I’m saying. He’s definitely a candidate because I do think there’s a case that can be made against him, but over all my instincts are pulling me in a different direction.

Perhaps there’s some other algorithm others use, but for me, I don’t think this is off-the-charts bizarre logic. God knows I was wrong on whom to trust before (a ghostly spectral Beguiler’s voice whispers in my ear septimus, septimus, septimus…) and I cop to that wholly and forthrightly.

You mention pizza’s record as a defense. Let me tell you this: if pizza hadn’t been scanned and proven townie? The way he was pushing for Inner, Suburban and (earlier) ShadowFacts to be lynched over Red Skeezix – not to mention going after another person I know is innocent (me) – you’re damn right I’d’ve believed him to be scum. And i don’t think that would have been an unfair judgment. I think he was damn lucky to have been scanned or he’d’ve been lynched by now, or probably toDay.

(Although he ended up dead anyway, alas, so I guess in the end worm food is worm food. But at least his gravesite will be among the honored dead, instead of out in the desert beyond De’endee where the buzzards and vultures roam.)

“Yup,” choie replied with cheerful honesty. Because I started analyzing for realsies after I made my chart and analyzed the votes. I’ve said that several times now. I have to admit I’ve found it difficult to keep up with who voted for whom, and when, during the game. Using a different method to examine the votes helped me greatly. Again, this isn’t a strange secret, it’s something I’ve been admitting for three or four (real life) days. Do keep up, there’s a good lad. :slight_smile:

What I find interesting is that you aren’t making any cases for whom you find guilty other than me. Now, I already asked this question up above, but you didn’t want to pay attention to it, perhaps 'cause I’m so wordy (or perhaps because you’d rather waste time making me look bad – depends on how charitable our audience is feeling towards you):

Okay, fine, assume I’m scum – so who’s your fourth and final Lord of Slaughter? You don’t seem to find Hirka guilty, so who’s next?

(P.S. of course I used the word “snuggling” right after you did – that was me pointing the finger right back atcha, hence the snarky line “which is apparently called snuggling,” duh!)