I have unexpected time problems, none whatsoever now and probably none tomorrow either.
NETA: That leaves me trying to get a full Day’s participation in in two games in a single RL day – needless to say that is probably not going to work very well. Townies please do as much work considering all candidates as you can. 
yes, it’s natural for a person to trust someone who agrees with you but this is mafia. it’s just not enough for me.
i use pizza as an example but he’s not the only one who’s been wrong in this game or in other games. he’s a convenient choice. now, if he weren’t scanned and he was lynched, he’d still be wrong AND town. personally, a person who was 95% right would be very suspicious (unless you’re BillMC).
i’ll have to check on your posts about your suspicions of me since you haven’t made any links to them. of course you didn’t say you would.
next, we use snuggling differently hence i find it interesting. as i said, you were very consoling, almost patronizing.
finally, the 4th scum would be you. if you haven’t noticed i’ve voted already.
That’s finearino. You vote your way, I’ll vote mine. I’m glad you agree it’s natural, that’s at least some concession.
It’s not just that you’ve been wrong almost all the time (at least, in my opinion). I’m not too big a fan of your actions right now, either. 
Of course you didn’t ask me to, so why should I have?
My first suspicion of you is mentioned here in post #2253, early in the morning of August 14 – only five hours into Day 6, before there was a choiewagon. Red was in the lead, and there was not a single vote on me at the time.
This was before I’d started really analyzing posts in depth a few days later with my chart, which only confirmed my suspicions of you.
My suspicion of Hirka began after reading pizza’s convincing argument, after which I thought “hmm, maybe Hirka is scum after all.” Then I did my chart, which made me even more suspicious. Finally came Hirka’s IMO opportunistic switch from me to a double-vote of Red allegedly just to “remove a distraction,” even though Hirka actually claimed Red was probably innocent. THAT move turned me from a “eh, kinda suspicious of Hirka” to a “hell yes Hirka is almost certainly scum.”
Oh whoops, you’re right. I saw that you’d voted for me already, but I didn’t notice that you’d also voted for Hirka. Sorry about that.
Okay, let’s switch it around then. Let’s say I’m lynched and then I flip town. (As I will.) Who’s your next choice?
Since I’m on vacation, I haven’t had time to do much research, but looking at the cases made by everyone, while discounting the ones that assume I’m scum (since I’m not), I’m thinking the case against USCDiver to be the most convincing.
** vote uscdiver
Vote uscdiver **
I doubled voted because I don’t know how much time I’ll have for the rest of the day. So wanted to go ahead and lock in.
While it looks like I might be lynched, I do ask everyone to list who your second choices might be, so we can at least get some info out of this day when I flip town.
Damn phone…
** vote uscdiver
Vote uscdiver **
Frog blast the vent core! Er, I mean, Vote Count!
Hirka T’Bawa (5): Normal Phase [2545], Choie [2546], gnarlycharlie [2547], USCDiver [2554], Weedy [2555]
USCDiver (2): Hirka T’Bawa [2565], Hirka T’Bawa [2565]
Choie (1): gnarlycharlie [2547]
With these votes, Hirka T’Bawa would be lynched. Remember, Day ends on Tuesday at 5 pm.
I’ve noticed a certain slowness to this game of late. Are Days too long? Would you guys prefer me to shorten them again? They’re currently 4 days per Day and two days per Night, but we could go to 3 and 1 pretty easily. Just let me know what you guys think!
Sorry, Astral. I think it’s just a concatenation of events – lots of end-of-summer vacations/tests/whatevers, plus a fast-moving rival game that I believe a few of our players are participating in, plus the recent death of our [del]loudest[/del] most prolific town-member. And some of our players have been rather close-mouthed the entire game (in particular the notorious pedescribe, but he’s not the only culprit).
But I don’t think shortening the Days/Nights would help; in fact, I think it would be a hinderance. We’re already lucky to hear from some people once or twice a Day; shorten the Day lengths and we may miss contributions altogether.
At least that’s my thought.
Now to Hirka:
Sell me on USCDiver. Can you remind me what argument you found most persuasive? The thing about Diver is that he was gunning for Red Skeezix way back when most everyone else was tossing the noose around poor ShadowFacts’s neck. Why would a scum Diver be so willing to bus both Septimus and Red Skeezix, particularly the latter when he was doing it way before other people were out to get Red?
For that matter, what changed your mind about me, for whom you voted Yesterday? (Not that I’m complaining, mind you… :D)
I’ve added Day 5 and 6 vote counts to Mental Guy’s/Normal’s work, but sadly not had the time to do unvotes - this is just final votes of the leaders. It was done quickly so please check for errors:
Day 5 Vote Count:
ShadowFacts (11): Red Skeezix [1719], gnarlycharlie [1729], Weedy [1909], Mental Guy [1913], Inner Stickler [1978], Inner Stickler [1978], LightFoot [1983], Normal Phase [2083], Normal Phase [2083], Hirka T’Bawa [2115], Hirka T’Bawa [2115]
Red Skeezix (10): USCDiver [1698], ShadowFacts [1706], Stanislaus [1763], ShadowFacts [1955], Choie [1976], Suburban Plankton [2098], Suburban Plankton [2098], Stanislaus [2114]
Day 6 Vote Count:
Red Skeezix (15): USCDiver [2226], Weedy [2249], Mental Guy [2320], Stanislaus [2349], Red Skeezix [2373], Red Skeezix [2373], Normal Phase [2385], Weedy [2386], Stanislaus [2388],** USCDiver [2392]**, Mental Guy [2393], Normal Phase [2396], Hirka T’Bawa 2397, Hirka T’Bawa 2397, choie [2408]
Choie (7): gnarlycharlie [2280], Askthepizzaguy [2281], Askthepizzaguy [2321], Hirka T’Bawa [2375], gnarlycharlie [2376], Inner Stickler [2378], Inner Stickler [2378]
OK: I had a look at gnarly’s recent posts. His attitude vis-a-vis Red Skeezix yesterDay look odd:
This could be getting at a number of things, but I think he’s opening up the possibility that Red sacrificed Suburban to look good himself. So there’s at least some residual suspicion of Red at this point. Then:
This is back to considering the possibilities that Red is town, and asking for some input from Red.
But - goes ahead and votes in the meantime. The vote on Diver is a hangover from previous Days (which in some ways I think is fair enough - I’m poor at keeping pressure on over time). But Diver has come up a few times as a default suspicion and this really isn’t putting on pressure or driving a case on him. It’s very much marking time. The vote on choie is a psychological case, and I think is somewhat following Pizza’s lead.
Pizza, please post a link of your suspects if Red flips scum as well as suspects in case Suburban somehow flips scum.
[/QUOTE]
Then asks for a further lead from Pizza, while considering Red might be scum. Then we get this, following Red’s Remorseful Vig claim:
-
Why swallow Red’s claim whole? There’s no debate, no further questions, no consideration of the possibilities he was asking others to keep in mind earlier, just straight acceptance.
-
Why lock in choie at this point? Obviously hugely convinced of her guilt, but why? There’s very little case there to justify any of this.
I think gnarly was trying to look good in respect of Red, but ultimately hoping the Remorseful Vig gambit would come off, and double-voting the next suspect a) gives Red a shot and b) spares gnarly from making any hard decisions later. Looking at the vote counts from earlier, he spent the early game not making contentious votes one way or another - which reflects his play wrt USCDiver above. I think this could be somebody playing under the radar, who tried to discreetly help Red by a) accepting his case and b) locking himself in on someone else.
I’m not anti the case on Hirka at all, but in the interest of hopefully generating some interest in an alternative case.
vote gnarlycharlie
I think the case against **Hirka **is solid and he is my preference for Today’s lynch. There were a few parts of **choie’s **posts since the end of Yesterday that caught my eye too though. In addition to the other parts of the case against her here is what I saw.
This first post after Red flipped scum seemed very disingenuous and forced the first time I read it. On retrospect it is much less seemingly so, but still has an air of being too, I don’t know the right word, scripted maybe?
This doesn’t read like the voting record of a Townie, this is the voting record of a Scum who knows which players are which.
Emphasis mine. “If” :dubious:
I think **choie **is a good candidate for Tomorrow’s Lynch but I could get behind her lynch Today as well.
vote choie
I’m a professional writer/editor and a former actor/performer. Almost everything I write sounds too scripted.
Heh. I love it. This is a much-needed boost for my insecure little ego considering how poorly I was playing for the first half of the game.
So when – yes, when – you learn that I’m actually townie, I wonder what this sort of record will mean? Am I some kind of Mafia idiot savant, or have I just had a swing of beginner’s luck?
Oh pshaw, that’s just using Askthepizzaguy’s usual format for hypotheticals, and also riffing on his dead certainty that I’m actually scum.
Feel free to lynch me today if you want, I’m extremely expendable as vanilla townie. (Though once I’m gone, my fellow Townies may regret having ignored my streak of awesome predictions.) But after that you’re gonna have to lynch one scum after another, so please promise me you’ll look at Hirka and Gnarlycharlie too?
Hirka, if you’re around, I’m still curious about what you see in USCDiver that makes a double-vote worthwhile. Even after his latest post, when I could easily start plopping some OMGUS-tinted glasses on, I still don’t see a particularly scummy player here. (Just a wrongheaded townie. :D)
Hey! It’s Stanislaus!
[quote=“Stanislaus, post:2572, topic:588052”]
I think gnarly was trying to look good in respect of Red, but ultimately hoping the Remorseful Vig gambit would come off, and double-voting the next suspect a) gives Red a shot and b) spares gnarly from making any hard decisions later. Looking at the vote counts from earlier, he spent the early game not making contentious votes one way or another - which reflects his play wrt USCDiver above. I think this could be somebody playing under the radar, who tried to discreetly help Red by a) accepting his case and b) locking himself in on someone else.
I’m not anti the case on Hirka at all, but in the interest of hopefully generating some interest in an alternative case.
vote gnarlycharlie
Well hallefreakin’lujah, I’m not the only one giving gnarlycharlie the side-eye. None of this is conclusive (hell, is anything ever completely conclusive? I guess the case against Red was pretty close) but it’s good to hear a better (and more trusted) player articulate reasons why gnarlycharlie might be raising the hinkometer.
I know Normal is really set on MentalGuy, and I do hope she’s able to return early enough tomorrow to give us some more reasons why. I’m still leaning town on him.
So Stanislaus if Hirka flips town, you’d go to gnarlycharlie next, or do you suspect someone else (me, Diver, Mental Guy, Weedy, even Normal)?
I’m uncomfortably aware that I haven’t taken a serious look at Normal - I shy away from the post volumes! But she did nearly get septimus lynched on D2, which gives her a big chunk of town cred.
Weedy is another clean-nose, low impact player, which means I need to look harder at him.
gnarly has voted for both Diver and Mental Guy, so if he flips town I’ll be looking harder at those two. Diver’s failure to push Red over the edge when he had a chance looks bad; Mental Guy tweaked my scumdar earlier in the game, but I need to update that. So after gnarly, it’s Diver, MG,…, Weedy,…,…, Normal - but that might change once I do some proper re-reading.
Concerning toDay’s lynch, I am content with Hirka. I think the analysis of his voting pattern is fairly convincing and suspected him earlier in the game(well, Koldanar).
Vote Hirka T’Bawa
After Hirka, I am most suspect of GnarlyCharlie. I would reevaluate after seeing player’s alignment, but after that I would put choie and then I am not sure between Weedy and USCDiver. Assuming 4 starting scum, we have two mislynches left. I think at this point, if Normal or Stanislaus are scum, I am just going to congratulate them on their win.
pedescribe is a problem. Someone mentioned that he will quit participating to make the point that non-participants need to be dealt with. It seems that would be a particularly powerful point if he was in fact scum. (If someone remembers who pointed out that that was pede’s MO, I would appreciate knowing. I would not put as much stock in it if it came from scum.) I don’t really want to spend a mislynch on pedescribe (especially since I am afraid one is going to be spent on me once Normal gets back), but I also don’t want scum to win because pede didn’t play.
Anyway, I am about halfway through a reread now. I don’t think my mind will change on Hirka and I doubt it will change on charlie. After that things are more fluid.
Vote Count!
Hirka T’Bawa (6): Normal Phase [2545], Choie [2546], gnarlycharlie [2547], USCDiver [2554], Weedy [2555], Mental Guy [2575]
USCDiver (2): Hirka T’Bawa [2565], Hirka T’Bawa [2565]
Choie (2): gnarlycharlie [2547], USCDiver [2571]
gnarlycharlie (1): Stanislaus [2570]
With these votes, Hirka T’Bawa would be lynched. Remember, Day ends on tomorrow at 5 pm.
it certainly has been quiet quiet since Pizza’s death.
stanislaus, i find your case on me is more solid than choie’s. that said, i really believed Red. he fooled pizza, inner and me. of course, i’m the only one who hasn’t been cleared.
-
regarding SP, i wanted to make sure that this wasn’t some scum trick to make us lynch Red before SP’s reveal.
-
i was looking for Red, a lot of people were. we wanted to know his side.
-
voting Diver and choie. i wanted to put down votes. wasn’t sure when Red would return.
-
double voting choie. did i mention i believed Red?
will be back later for more thoughts.
I think it first came briefly from Weedy in post #1048 (bolding mine):
And was reiterated more strongly by Normal in post #1292:
I may have missed some mentions though. So I dunno if this helps you, MentalGuy.
BTW, I think your nickname for pedescribe is a bit… erm … unfortunate.
Regarding pedescribe, I think if we are able to hit at least one Scum in the next two lynches we will be in a better position to waste a possible mislynch on pedescribe. The last thing we want to do is leave him alive until 3-way. Then it just becomes a race between the last two other players to lock in their votes first.
Actually thinking about it a little bit more, if we lynch a scum and then there is no night kill we may as well assume that pedescribe is the last scum and is really not participating at all. But we would run the risk that he is actually actively watching the thread and participating on the scum side, but silent in the main thread.
How many people are alive right now?
Diver
me
choie
Stanislaus
pedescribe
Hirka
Mental Guy
gnarly
weedy
Inner (where’d he go?)
That’s ten, with (hopefully!) only two scum among them. Assume a Hirka lynch. That’s 9, and 8 in the morning.
If Hirka’s not scum, it’s at 6-2. Not yet effective LYLO even with pedescribe as nonvoting town: a mislynch and night kill bring it to 4-2 with three town voting, then 3-1 the next day if successful.
If Hirka is scum, it’s at 7-1. A mislynch goes to 4-1 “lylo” the next day with ped still alive.
Scum’s godfather and presumed main killer are dead. Roleblocker is still alive. Other one is probably an investigative role of some sort (or that still-unexplained delayer?)*, possibly a goon, outside shot two goons.
If there are three scum left, assumign a Hirka lynch, then it is 6-2 tomorrow if successful today and a tricky 5-3 if not.
As things stand I don’t support lynching pedescribe, ever. I don’t think he’s mafia, on the strength of having double-voted ATPG on day two only to have the next vote on ATPG be placed by the mafia godfather. There’s an outside chance he’s third party; if we get two scum and the game’s still not over, that’s the time to worry about it. If it gets to scum-or-pedescribe but not both, go for the scum and let them worry about whether they need to kill ped. if Astral gives a win to a third party player who has not posted since day two I think I’m giving up this game for good. Pedescribe needs to never sign up for a game again, regardless.
At one point recently I thought I had it settled in my mind that there WERE no third parties in this game, but I can’t imagine now what made me think that – anyone have any opinions?
*Stanislaus could you have one more run-through of all the known night actions, given Red’s flip, please?