Check my math; unless something changes it will not go to three-way. How does that affect your thinking?
I’ll put myself on record now; if this is what he is doing, and he is allowed to win that way when town’s options to get a read on him outside of posting are so limited (no vig, doc starts paranoid, one seer and a very limited tracker), not only can he shove it up his ass sideways, but so can Astral.
I’m needing reasoning for all of these. I don’t remember you ever mentioning any of them in a suspicion context before now, and here you don’t even reference what you agree with or disagree with in others’ posts. You’re basically committing to nothing here; I don’t like it.
This bothers me, too. (Not ped, you.)
First: Again with the lack of analysis. Absent any consideration of whether pedescribe actually is scum, absent even the (incorrect) tie-break consideration offered by Diver, all this really is is fear-mongering. Do you actually think he might be scum, and if so, why?
Second: Last game he quit participating as a town tracker. You know?
Third: I’ve said several times that I doubt you and Hirka are scum together. Yet you’re worried about me mislynching you anyway? While participating in a huge bandwagon on Hirka at the same time? Does not compute.
I’ve given a bunch in the past if you care to look them up. His reaction to Septimus on day three (unconvincing bussing) is the point that gets me most strongly.
Love you too, Normal. 
OK-dokey, Normal.
I’m taking Inner as Town based on SP’s confirmation:
Night 1
Suburban tracked Pizza - blocked
LightFoot investigated Pizza - Pizza is Town
Red took no action
Inner Stickler protected/blocked Special Ed
Scathach killed
If Ed was blocked by Inner, he didn’t block SP. Ergo Scum Roleblocker did it. I know you’re sceptical about the colour but at this point I don’t see any other way for it to have happened. I’ve looked up the colour to check, so here it is:
It *is *quite similar to what Red quoted when he was blocked by Shadow:
…but there is a difference - Suburban couldn’t remember if he had meant to do something last night, but Red knew that he was planning a kill. Is this a signficant difference? I don’t know, and this is why I don’t like trying to second-guess colour.
Red’s came before SP’s so it’s not a copy of that. Most likely it is what he was sent, or pretty close, because he *was *blocked and would have had a PM to that effect. Does that mean they both come from the same source (e.g. Ed/Shadow)? If so, why wasn’t Ed blocked by Inner? Would he also not have been protected in that case?
It’s *just *possible that Ed blocked SP, but I think a lot more likely is that scum did. I think the colour is the same because it’s a magical block, and there’s no reasons for the effect not to be the same even if the origin was different.
Night 2
Suburban tracked Ed - Ed took an action
Suburban received delayed reveal from Night 1 - Pizza took no action
LightFoot investigated ??? - blocked
Red attacked Septimus - Septimus was protected
Inner Stickler protected/blocked LightFoot
Ed killed
I don’t know who Ed blocked, but it doesn’t seem to have been Suburban or Inner and is highly unlikely to have been Lightfoot.
NB Suburban’s delayed result suggests that the scum roleblocker is the guilty party from N1, because that’s not a feature of Ed’s/Shadow’s block.
Red is lying about attacking septimus, obviously.
Inner protected/blocked Lightfoot - I’m assuming the scum roleblocker did too because that’s what roleblockers do to detectives.
Night 3
Suburban tracked Shadow - Shadow took an action
LightFoot investigated ??? - blocked
Red attacked Shadow - blocked
Shadow blocked Red
Inner Stickler protected/blocked LightFoot
No kill.
I think this is pretty straightforward now: Shadow blocked Red and stopped the kill; Inner targetted LF again; scum roleblocker didn’t target Shadow (other claimed power-role) so presumably targetted LF.
Night 4
Suburban tracked Inner - Inner cast “a helpful spell”
LightFoot investigated ??? - blocked
Red attacked Pedescribe - blocked
Shadow blocked Pizza
Inner Stickler protected LightFoot
No Kill
Day 5
Lightfoot killed
Red almost certainly didn’t attack pedescribe; scum probably swapped a night-kill for a day-kill to get to Lightfoot. Lightfoot was blocked but not by Inner - so the scum roleblocker again.
There’s still such serious inconsistencies in the color. I swear, if I was ever to go along with a lynch of pedescribe, it would be purely to put a nail in that lingering paranoia of ped being the doc and Inner lying.
Why do you not comment on night four? (ETA: nm, you did, only out of place) Lightfoot reports the same color as the two previous nights, but (if we’re assuming the headaches and all that is the result of being aimed at by two roleblockers instead of one), why does the color not revert to what it was previously (what Suburban reported from night one)? Argh.
(There’s basically no reason for scum not to kill Inner tonight, though. Longer they leave him alive the greater the chance they lose another player and become unable to control for his protection. And it’s not like anyone, even me, is going to try to lynch Inner short of LYLO anyway. So I don’t really anticipate having to deal with this annoying paranoia for much longer, regardless.)
Man I hope this lynch is correct.
And Inner Stickler. Note to self: choie and Stickler/Stanislaus/pedescribe not scum together. Honestly, despite what I have a feeling I’m going to be sayign below, I have a little trouble believing scum would forget the existence of a town doc, either. Anyway.
I’ve never seen a ratio as high as five of 21 in a game with as few town powers as this one has. That said – this game also seems to be devoid of any second killer, whether vig or SK, unless pedescribe is one, and as a result there is a relatively large number of mislynches for scum to have to get through, if there are only four. So … just maybe something like roleblocker/goon/goon.
Three is not possible, IMO.
Talked about that a couple posts up.
Still Mental Guy for me, though I’m clearly going to have to revisit that case (as well as look at just about everybody else) before morning, regardless.
After that I don’t know. As an aside, if the next few night kills weren’t so freaking obvious already I’d have a real issue with these trust lists. But they are, so …
What do you think of the theory that a scum Red should have forewarned his teammates about the gambit he was about to play, and kept them from letting themselves get caught out by responding to it? If I have any doubt about Hirka at all, it’s that. As wishy-washy as his response was, he DID respond by voting in favor of the scum who was later lynched, and so did gnarly.
On other issues – I think most scum woudl have managed to vote correctly a little bit more often than gnarly did over the course of these past several days – it wasn’t like Septimus or Red were being suspected for poor or insufficient reasons, or like there was no danger in voting their opponents (Shadow in particular). And he came off as townier than Mental Guy during their little day two/three kerfuffle, I thought. So while I do have some suspicion here, I also have a great deal of resistance. I very much need to review his participation from the outset.
No. Just no. All of you, Mental Guy and Diver jumping on ped at this point is pinging hugely.
Ayup.
I find this to be an interesting comment, because to me you two are not playing remotely alike. Mental Guy, if scum, is pursuing a strategy of blending in with the background noise. I don’t even think he’s made a case since gnarly on day two. You have been exceedingly antagonistic, and your cases, up until today, generally one-offs on noisy people like me for reasons like “she wouldn’t do that if she were town” that virtually no one is likely to pay attention to at all. Ineffective in terms of scum-hunting, but virtually the opposite of “safe”, for all of that. It’s the “too out-there to be scum” strategy, if you’re scum.
Until today. Until Red is finally gone as a distraction, and your biggest antagonist is dead, and somebody’s gotta push the wrong lynches? Why the change, choie? If stuff like this post has been in you all along – and you capable of producing it despite being thought a suspect, as it is evident that you are – why start posting like this only now?
The Hirka votes look great if Hirka is scum. Otherwise, not so much. The Septimus votes (especially day three) are hugely problematic and the very core of my case against him. I do believe I’ve brought that up a few times. The last two are hardly exhonerating. This vote record is not all it’s cracked up to be, nor all that you’re presenting it as. Unless Hirka is scum.
Here’s the thing:
– If Hirka IS scum, which you offer as part of the case for MG’s townieness, then MG should in no way be so high on your suspect list as you have him. Especially when, despite his lofty ranking, virtually this entire bullet point consists of reasons not to suspect him. At the very least you should have it variable, on an “if Hirka is scum/if Hirka is not scum” basis. Yet you don’t. Why?
I think you want to have it both ways. If you’re scum with Hirka, you want to retain MG as a suspect somehow (or at least get some cred with me for having considered it). If you’re scum with MG, which I’m kind of starting to suspect, you want to be able to point to him having been high on your suspect list here, despite internal inconsistencies and seemingly mroe interest in showing why he’s not scum than why he is.
False. He voted him fourth or something on day three.
Bah. On day six? Red was already in the ground.
This paragraph has more switchbacks than L’Alpe d’Huez.
Well, I’ve been wrong before. Once or twice.
Really? How early?
Bah. I do. Red Skeezix was caught red-handed. Especially to teh scum, who knew that was true. Diver’s also had the odd comment here and there that has severely pinged. I need to review the timing of his day three vote (and what he said about it) and pull up his other comments.
Wrong reasons, but I think the right conclusion. I see him as town mostly because of him truly pushing those lynches (no sign of mixed emotions or letting others do the work, especially with Red), and for stuff like “this is a nightmare” after Shadow’s lynch, which is not easy to fake.
I wish.
Add Weedy to the “not scum with choie” list, heh.
This is about what I have for her, too, which is bothersome in itself. I need to review her badly.
Revised list:
Looking scummy – Hirka (oh please, but I’m having my doubts b/c of the other two), Mental Guy, choie
Maybe? – Diver
Must review – gnarly, weedy
Other – Inner, Stanislaus, pedescribe
To do list: – unvotes. Mental Guy day four Septimus vote. Diver day three Septimus vote. Diver, gnarly and weedy posts.
Way too much, but I’ll try.
Hmm, You’re right, I missed one. Here’s what I get now (presume 2 remaining scum):
**Hirka **Scum
8-2 Now (Day 7)- Lynch Hirka
8-1 Tonight (Night 7) - Dead Townie
7-1 Day 8- Mislynch
6-1 Night 8 - Dead Townie
5-1 Day 9 - Mislynch
4-1 Night 9 - Dead Townie
3-1 Day 10 - LyLo
With **pedescribe **still alive, it essentially comes down to 3 way Mafia with a little extra uncertainty as to **pedescribe’s **role. However I think the best test of his role at that point would be whether or not the Night kills continue with the lynching of the next scum.
For completeness,
**Hirka **Town
8-2 Now (Day 7) - Mislynch Hirka
7-2 Tonight (Night 7) - Dead Townie
6-2 Day 8 - Mislynch
5-2 Night 8 - Dead Townie
4-2 Day 9 - This is LyLo
So lynching a scum (either **Hirka **or whoever) gets us an additional Day/Night cycle, but we still only get 2 mislynches at this point. I agree that we’re stuck leaving **pedescribe **alone and hoping for the best.
Thanks for the help with calculations, guys. It makes sense, assuming everyone’s math is right.
Normal I’d be very grateful if you checked up on gnarly whenever you have a chance, because I’m very willing to admit my logic is probably flawed and I’m not comfortable yet analyzing posts on a micro-level the way they should be in a game like this.
What embarrasses me most is that I apparently don’t understand the way the mafia night kills work. I thought that they all voted on a candidate and told the mod as a group. But according to Stanislaus’s chart and [del]Normal’s analysis thereof[/del] USCDiver’s post, there’s only one person who’s allowed to make the kill? And if that person is lynched (e.g. Red Skeezix) then there can’t be any more night kills? Or am I utterly misreading this quote from USCDiver:
The mechanic can be different for each game, but generally, the scum team selects a target and a player to do the kill. That player cannot perform another action during the night. So for instance, you might have a scum roleblocker who would want that power available and wouldn’t do the Night Kill. In our game, it seems clear Red was the player assigned to do the Kill on the Night he was blocked by Shadow. If we lynch a goon Today then the roleblocker (presumably the last Scum) will no longer be able to both block and perform the kill. It doesn’t matter much in this game, but lynching the scum roleblocker early can make a huge difference in some games.
My point is that if **pedescribe **is in fact the final Scum and is not participating, there will be no Scum kill because no one will be choosing a target. The stickiness of the situation is the fact that he could be participating on the Scum side, but not posting which would not be all that unusual for him.
Speaking of which:
I’m not jumping on ped, I just wanted to avoid having him be a part of three way Mafia. Redoing the math, I see that isn’t possible, so I don’t care what’s done with him, honestly. Actually I take that back, modkilled would be best (second best would be banning for violating the ‘don’t be a jerk’ rule).
Oh geeze, I did forget Inner! What the hell, the very week I turn another year older, I start going senile?
Inner would go last on my list, natch, but to be honest? I have a teensy, tiny, microscopic niggling doubt about him. I don’t really know why. I think because the only confirmation we have of him is through color that reads he cast a “helpful” spell. (But that “helpful” is kinda ambiguous. We’ve been assuming it meant “helpful to town,” but…) Also I don’t like that double-vote on me instead of Red Skeezix when he should really have much more certainty that Red was guilty, versus just having suspicions over me. But that’s probably just an ugly OMGUS instinct rising to the fore.
Also his mentioning that he tried to protect pizza the night he was blocked, allowing pizza’s murder to go through after all. That could be read as him trying to bolster his claim.
Again, it’s just me being super-duper-paranoid. All in all I do trust Suburban’s confirmation and the mod color almost certainly did mean “helpful to town.” So there, that’s where he goes on my suspect list: last, beneath you and Stanislaus. I find him most likely to be town than anyone else, other than me of course.
Sure they did, after his lynch was already nearly a foregone conclusion, when it was clear that you and me and most of the other townies didn’t buy what Red was selling. So maybe if he did tell his scumbuddies about the gambit, they waited to see what your/pizza/my/other townies’ reactions were gonna be to the gambit.
Either way, let’s face it: we know for sure that Red DID pull this gambit, and it didn’t work. So either we’re all townies, or for whatever reason, the scumbuddies were too late in backing him up on it. Hirka did back him, at first – remember, he voted for me. Only toward Nightfall did he finally unvote me and switch to join the Red train, though – incredibly – still maintaining that he believed Red’s tale (possibly because he had to justify his earlier vote for me).
[quiote=Normal]On other issues – I think most scum woudl have managed to vote correctly a little bit more often than gnarly did over the course of these past several days – it wasn’t like Septimus or Red were being suspected for poor or insufficient reasons, or like there was no danger in voting their opponents (Shadow in particular). And he came off as townier than Mental Guy during their little day two/three kerfuffle, I thought. So while I do have some suspicion here, I also have a great deal of resistance. I very much need to review his participation from the outset.
[/quote]
Fair enough, and good points. Hopefully you’ll have a chance to review that stuff and shed some light on it for us.
Or maybe gnarly just isn’t a very good scum player? Heck there have to be some scummy folks who are just as hapless as me as townie.
Confirmed townie pizza also felt that pedescribe shouldn’t survive the game, so it’s not exactly a scum-tell, is it? All I’m saying is that I think pedescribe is a meaniehead for not participating in any useful way. I’m certainly not advocating him over my top suspects. I’m fairly convinced that the top two suspects are Hirka and gnarly, so anyone else beneath them on the list is just a stab in the dark.
Ouch. I hate that I come across so poorly. Anyway, my point was that other people (read: pizza and I think Suburban) were bitching at me for being too wishy-washy, unwilling to commit to votes, and quiet (that last was from ShadowFacts actually), so that’s why I felt MG and I were similar. We’re both giving people the benefit of the doubt and reluctant to settle on votes for sure.
Two reasons:
Because De’endee fell eerily silent after the pizza got burnt. 
I mean seriously, did you see how few posts there were this weekend? I figured someone had to pick up the slack, and I kinda felt I owed it to pizza to start doing some analysis, or at least what I am pleased to call analysis, anyway.
Also, as I’ve stated, frankly my confidence in myself has somewhat improved over the last few Days (and days), pretty much ever since y’all voted ShadowFacts and I didn’t, and my instincts were right about Suburban and Inner and Red Skeezix. Now I fully appreciate that you have no reason to believe that this “winning streak” is anything but insider-information courtesy of me being scum and ergo knowing everything in advance. But for me, I know that isn’t the case. I’m town and do not have perfect information about these people. Something inside my brain was actually working correctly and making the right calls. So, thusly bolstered by my record, I’ve decided that maybe I have something to contribute after all.
Yep, I was only assuming Hirka is scum. I didn’t do a similar analysis of everyone’s posts using the opposite position.
'Cause I’m barely managing to eke my cases out as it is? I really really hate to play this card again because every time I do I know everyone rolls his/her eyes, but I am new to this. I am not used to analyzing every permutation of guilt/innocence out to the nth degree.
Anyway I don’t think Mental Guy is that high on my list. It’s middling, isn’t it? Honestly, if it weren’t for my trust in you, he’d be even lower. So blame yourself, lady.
Wait, aren’t you the one trying to have it both ways? You’ve been the one promoting MG as guilty the whole time. So I boost him up on my list slightly, mostly because I’ve been trusting your judgment, and then BAM you use this against me as reason I’m scum with him. Plus I spend most of the post saying why I’m torn about whether he’s guilty or not. That’s called being uncertain, and it’s also called perfectly natural in a game where no one can really be 100% certain of anything. (Except, I guess, scum.)
I’ve said this before: some of you players seem to feel that my not being 100% certain of someone’s guilt equals being guilty myself. Bizarrely that’s not a judgment you apply to yourselves, because it’s not like you’re 100% convinced on everyone. You’re okay with weighing the pros and cons yourselves. But you sure as heck love to point the finger at others trying to do the same.
Day Three was earlier than the day everyone started voting for septimus on Day Four. Only a few people went for septimus on Day Three. That’s what I meant.
What does that “oh please” mean?
Y’know, I think I may try to get you to make the promise I was asking of pizza that he was too yellowbellied to take me up on. If it weren’t overall bad for town to mislynch, I’d almost hope you guys do lynch me Today or Tomorrow, just so I can lord it all over pizza in the afterlife, and haunt you as well.
I think you’re misunderstanding.
Red pulled the remoseful vig thing.
Inner, gnarly and (in a wobbly fashion) Hirka bought into it and voted choie. Counted my single vote already there, and Pizza’s votes, that made five people voting you, against everyone else (6, I think?), including Red, voting for Red. Not enough to swing the tide. Doubtful whether it ever could have.
Anyway. Red pulls the remorseful thing. Three players jump on, ding ding ding. They aren’t enough; Red is lynched anyway and flips scum.
Is this what might have been predicted to happen? I think so. Has it engendered suspicion against gnarly and Hirka in at least a few townies? I think so. Would Red have wanted that to happen, if he was scum with them? Doubt it. I think he would have warned them to stay put. Ergo my instinct says voting for you there was a town tell. Hirka gets excepted a bit for being third to do it and only with a single vote at that, but if gnarly is scum he did the right thing there to fool me. I’ll need more to be convinced of him.
Usually they slip up in some big way, then. Forgetting to bus, almost ever, is a mistake that is usually paired with other ones. I really haven’t noticed anything glaring from gnarly, pending review.
Yeah, I don’t think you want to be leaning on Pizza’s opinions right at this point.
All right.
Thing is if Hirka is scum, Mental Guy is almost certainly not, so something feels wrong about you rating him so high. You say yourself it’s only because of me, but what have I been right on? Septimus, that’s pretty much it, and I didn’t finish with a vote on him on day two, at that. I’m a townie (to others’ eyes) because I’ve been acting as one and visibly thinking as one, I expect. My vote record is nothing to write home about, except for that one day two vote. Which is why your pushing him up so high on my word alone feels wrong to me.
Yes. But I’m a townie, so I’m allowed.
More seriously, I know what’s in my own head. I don’t know what’s in yours. And I haven’t seen the sort of consideration of alternatives from you that I’ve been thinking about myself and sometimes talking about.
Actually you spent most of that section talking about why he did not feel like scum to you, which is inconsistent with his high placement, whatever you say about my judgment.
Nope. It’s never quite that simple as not being sure.
If it’s the one I’m thinking of, please let him be scum.
It would be a pleasure, m’lady choie.
Oh, and actually six people voted for Septimus on day three, IIRC. Possibly more, there were people (like me and Hirka) off and on. I still don’t know what you’re talking about here.
Five against six? That’s not too bad for a crazy Hail Mary gambit. By the time Hirka decided to vote reluctantly for Red, that train was just about to leave the station.
Well do pleeeease check his behavior and votes. I just disagree with your reasoning here and I hate to, because I’m not adept at the WIFOM game, and I gotta trust someone as a role model, and basically you and Stanislaus are it, Inner having fallen strangely silent.
HEE! Fair enough. As I said, I’m groping around for guidance here.
What can I say, it’s all I’ve got to go on. I’m treading water and dog-paddling while the rest of you seem to be virtual Mark Spitzes (hopefully that doesn’t date me too much!).
But honestly I don’t think I rated MentalGuy very high on the list anyway. You seem to rate my “D” level a lot higher than I do! If we were doing this visually instead of by letter grades, I’d be writing:
Hirka
gnarlycharlie
.
.
.
pedescribe
MentalGuy
Weedy (whom I forgot in my original list)
USCDiver
.
.
.
.
Stanislaus
.
.
Normal Phase
.
.
.
.
.
.
Inner Stickler
Does that make it clearer? I never thought listing someone fourth on a list of seven* suspects was particularly high.
That’s fair enough, but I think you can easily ascribe the reason for that as my lack of confidence and experience.
But dadgummit, a D isn’t high placement! Dang I wish you’d been around when I was bringing report cards home to my parents. My trigonometry grades would’ve looked a helluva lot better!
When I’m dead and flip town, I’ll hold you to that.
Hmm. Well, I guess I was looking at single votes versus double votes, not just how many people were voting. Most people voting septimus were singles, which seems to indicate that folks who weren’t really convinced of the septimus case, whereas TexCat got more doubles and people were far more convinced of her guilt. So to me, numberwise, there wasn’t nearly as big a bus on sep on Day Three. But you’re probably right and I’m not looking at this correctly.
Any chance of getting a last-minute vote count, please?
I just noticed that it doesn’t appear that Inner Stickler has voted this round. Or am I missing a vote from him?
To show our ghostly pizza that I can double-vote, I will:
unvote gnarlycharlie
vote Hirka T’Bawa and please please let me be right about this. 
Looks like I’m going to die. Sorry I wasn’t able to defend myself properly, and had such a suspicious vote record. But, drinking around the world here in epcot so really don’t care right now. Let me just say GO TOWN!!! While I still can. See y’all in the after game discussion.
Go town!!!
Sorry folks, some work needed doing at day end. So here, slightly late, is your color!
It was a long, slow march to day’s end. The adventurers and townsfolk were tired. Tired of the slaughter, of the backstabbing, of the suspicion. They examined each other wearily. How could they be sure their fellows weren’t hiding their glee at the destruction they had wrought?
Finally, Hirka T’Bawa was brought forward.
The mayor of De’endee stepped forward. “Hirka T’Bawa, you’ve been accused of-”
A sharp green bolt of energy crackled into existence, shattering Hirka’s body. He was dead.
All eyes turned to the wizard.
“I’ve got other things to do.” She said.
Hirka T’Bawa, an Invoker and one of the Defenders of De’endee, is dead. Night has now fallen, and will last until Wednesday, August 24th at 6 pm.
Oh godDAMNit. Hirka, I’m sorry.
pizza, if you’re reading this, I’m coming after you with a pitchfork once I’m lynched, I swear to God. Last time I let you influence me.
But I gotta accept responsibility for my own part in this mess. I judged wrong and fucked up. Thus endeth the winning streak.
(An Invoker is a D&D thing, right? It’s not a power role?)
I feel like we’re petering out here and the lack of interest/participation is hurting town like hell. There’s no way we got a full vote from everyone. Bad enough pedescribe is incommunicado, but now Inner Stickler doesn’t vote either? Come on people, don’t leave the arguing to idiots like me.
Allow me to rephrase:
Hirka T’Bawa, an NPC Invoker and one of the Defenders of De’endee, has been killed.
Heh. Ah, thank you, Astral.