Okay, we know, we KNOW, that one of the following is true:
Red Skeezix is scum (and/or)
ShadowFacts is scum (or)
Lightfoot is scum
Based on this, I retract my previous. If ShadowFacts comes up townie, Red Skeezix must die.
unvote: Inner Stickler
vote: ShadowFacts
As usual double-check my reasoning. There’s no way on earth that Red was blocked while Lightfoot was blocked while Pizza was blocked, unless Red Skeezix is lying about being blocked, ShadowFacts is lying about blocking Pizza, or Lightfoot is lying about being a detective.
I believe Lightfoot more than I believe anyone.
I believe Red Skeezix over ShadowFacts.
I believe ShadowFacts is right on Red Skeezix if ShadowFacts is townie.
No night kill, no vig kill.
Shadowfacts blocked ATPG, but didn’t get a message.
What happened to the NK? Same as yesterday, or different? Does the Doc get a message if he blocks successfully? Probably better not to know, at this point.
No vig kill --> no vig? Red Skeezix, what’s going on?
Point- As a vanilla role, I would be unlikely to be told that I was blocked. I have no actions to block.
Other point: Why would ShadowFacts-as-scum say he blocked me? If he’s scum, he also knows that Lightfoot is blocked, and Red Skeezix will know that he’s blocked as well. He will know that the townies will know that either he or Skeezix is lying.
Assume for the moment that ShadowFacts is telling the truth, AND Red Skeezix is lying, thus making Red Skeezix scum and septimus scum, as several have suggested.
Okay.
So, what is the point of this whole thing?
septimus distances from Red Skeezix, Red Skeezix distances from septimus, and Red Skeezix’ behavior suggests to me very strongly that septimus must die, on a round where septimus was almost forgotten as a lynch candidate. They push hard on Skeezix, and Skeezix pushes hard on septimus.
septimus dies. Then, because Red Skeezix is mafia, he’s also never going to be night killed. He’s liable to be scanned or blocked. He won’t survive the game, he’s now lynch bait scum. And since he’s claimed vigilante and most people suspect him, he’s also a goner in short order.
What have they accomplished?
They failed to kill on N3, and if ShadowFacts is town, it’s because he blocked Red Skeezix. So, ShadowFacts’ block of Red Skeezix leads to the distancing between septimus and Red Skeezix. Then, septimus dies, and Red Skeezix to follow shortly thereafter.
So now, Red Skeezix is lying, and ShadowFacts is telling the truth. If this is the case… then everything that has transpired from the scum team in the past 2 rounds has been, apparently, for the purpose of forcing a lynch on ShadowFacts. Because, neither septimus nor Red Skeezix emerge from this debacle alive.
Yet, when the tally was closing in on ShadowFacts, the scumbags did not make a major move to lynch ShadowFacts.
So, their goal in sight, they decline to lynch ShadowFacts, and allow septimus to die… and then Red Skeezix to die… INSTEAD of JUST ShadowFacts.
Why?
What’s the purpose of trading 2 scums for 1 townie, when they have the ability to MURDER shadowfacts, and the ability to lynch ShadowFacts, since septimus and Red Skeezix alone could have probably guaranteed this happened.
That didn’t happen.
So either Red Skeezix and septimus are the most bizarre mafia players I’ve come across, or the theory that the scums are all engaged in a conspiracy to lynch ShadowFacts is a bogus, bogus theory.
What’s the motive?
D3- lynch ShadowFacts instead of TexCat. Septimus and Red Skeezix still alive. (one dead townie, no dead scums)
N3- Red Skeezix can kill instead of being blocked by ShadowFacts. (two dead townies, no dead scums)
D4- septimus and Skeezix are not the top candidates of the round. I may yet get my wish, and have Suburban Plankton or someone else lynched instead. Possibly another dead townie in this scenario (three dead townies, no dead scums)
N4- Skeezix kills again, etc (4 dead townies, no dead scums)
D5- Maybe we lynch one of these folks. (one dead scum at last?)
Instead, what happens?
D3- lynch TexCat instead of ShadowFacts. (one dead townie)
N4- Red Skeezix is blocked.
D4- Red and septimus bus each other, septimus takes the medicine (one dead townie, one dead scum)
N4- Red Skeezix is blocked again by ShadowFacts… instead of ShadowFacts being murdered by someone. Hello? Hello? Earth to McFly???
D5- Red Skeezix gets ShadowFacts lynched instead of himself, but knows he’s doomed. (two dead townies, one dead scum)
N5- Red Skeezix gets one last murder. (three dead townies, one dead scum)
D6- Red Skeezix gets lynched for lying about ShadowFacts (three dead townies, two dead scums)
That’s a terrible trade. And terrible strategy. And unlikely to be the case that the scums would go out of their way so badly, shooting themselves in the foot TWICE, to achieve the result of lynch ShadowFacts, when they HAD THAT CHANCE on Day three… and declined! And they could have murdered him, instead of allowing him to continue to block Skeezix!
What the heck is going on here?
Either septimus and Red Skeezix are the most incompetent scum team I’ve seen in a long time, OR, they have some sort of bizarre restriction where ONLY Red Skeezix can kill anyone… OR ShadowFacts is scum with septimus, and that explains why septimus didn’t want ShadowFacts dead, and ShadowFacts didn’t want septimus dead, and septimus and ShadowFacts both wanted Red Skeezix dead.
That means here, Red and septimus were both scum, and this is what they decided to do that round, on a round where there were other candidates (TexCat, ShadowFacts) who are presumably townie. This is what they did.
**Red Skeezix **divides his vote between **ShadowFacts **and septimus, so his votes are free to move anywhere, yet he doesn’t move them anywhere.
Septimus votes for TexCat and puts TexCat into the narrowest of leads over ShadowFacts, a mere 3 posts after I LOCK on ShadowFacts. He LOCKS in on TexCat instead of taking both his votes and locking them on ShadowFacts, a move which had a much greater chance of saving his own ass.
Meanwhile, presumably townie ShadowFacts has one whole vote on Normal Phase, who isn’t going to be lynched by a mile.
This is what the scums did.
What happens after that?
TexCat goes directly for ShadowFacts instead of septimus. Good, now Red Skeezix and septimus are very, very safe. ShadowFacts locks on TexCat, and never put any pressure on Skeezix or septimus. Weedy and Stickler pile on.
But, Skeezix and septimus both could have put both their votes on ShadowFacts. And Red Skeezix already has a disposition toward voting for ShadowFacts, he’s done it before. He’s doing it now.
Instead,** scum godfather septimus** risks death to put TexCat over the top and locks his vote that way, instead of onto ShadowFacts. **Red Skeezix **does nothing to decide between septimus and ShadowFacts.
Now, ShadowFacts goes on to block Red Skeezix. No murder.
Then, Red and Shadow both escape lynch, and the scums lose their Godfather.
NOW, they go ahead and leave ShadowFacts alive again to block Red Skeezix or any of the scumbags still alive. They could have Red Skeezix murder ShadowFacts, since Shadow purports to be blocking Askthepizzaguy. They could have had someone besides Red Skeezix murder, presumably. Or, maybe they’re doing all of this WIFOM so that we lynch ShadowFacts today.
Why?
How do these moves make any sense. :smack:
The grand plan, the grandest scum plan of all time, is to make sure ShadowFacts gets lynched. Of course they didn’t even TRY TO get him lynched, in fact, the scum godfather appears to be sparing ShadowFacts’ life with post 1178’s locking vote.
And now, they RISK allowing ShadowFacts another chance at blocking Skeezix by leaving him alive.
Then, ShadowFacts claims to have blocked me.
So, here we are, and Red Skeezix, if ShadowFacts is townie, just plain old… DECLINED… TO MURDER… ANYONE!!! So that we would lynch ShadowFacts and expose Red Skeezix as scum for certain.
That’s great. That makes no sense, but it is HIGHLY entertaining.
That way, instead of murdering say… I dunno… Normal Phase or gnarlycharlie or Stanislaus or Askthepizzaguy last night, Red Skeezix gets to have ShadowFacts dead today and himself dead tomorrow.
I’m really happy for you, and I’mma let you finish, but Red Skeezix and septimus are the greatest mafia tag team of all time. OF ALL TIME.
That’s a gambit so completely nonsensical that I would be willing and grateful to lose to it, just from sheer creativity.
Nah, more likely the case is ShadowFacts blocked Skeezix, and ShadowFacts is scum, and the scum also have a roleblocker and blocked Lightfoot, and ShadowFacts and septimus didn’t want to bus each other. That makes much more sense.
Yes.
And that happens IF… the paranoid doctor role claims RIGHT NOW.
The paranoid doctor protects Lightfoot, blocks her.
The scum team blocks Red Skeezix with their scum roleblocker.
ShadowFacts blocks me as he said, and,
The scum team tried to murder Lightfoot again last night (???)
Or, I am the mafia.
I think the last scenario is really reasonable. Let’s go with that one.
Scum could (and in fact must) have a regular roleblocker in addition to ShadowFacts, or they could not have blocked Lightfoot on night two (if you don’t believe a paranoid doc anymore, and I agree that posted PM is suggestive).
Anyway. Regardless of that, I think that ShadowFacts’ claim to have blocked you is a lie. I’d more easily believe a claim that he had blocked me, and that would also have been a scummy choice. A block of you or me is what I expected from a scum Shadowfacts the night before last (coupled with a no-kill, of course), but it’s even less plausible as a town choice given Septimus’ flip.
You mean to tell me, Shadow, that in all the game leaving aside me and Skeezix, you couldn’t find any better option to block – for the sake of both your own credibility AND the town’s chances – than claimed-vanilla, town cred out the wazoo ATPG? I don’t believe it. My paranoia about Red can wait.
My only question is the vote. The evidence is stronger I think regarding ShadowFacts (and those extra votes!), but SF is not likely to be the full-time scum roleblocker, and if we could get that player, Lightfoot gets out of her cage. I’m almost convinced enough on Suburban being scum-of-some-variety to take the chance of missing both.
Normal, my not-so-secret love, I am not certain I agree with you on this one.
Here’s the thing: The evidence is superior on ShadowFacts; Shadow has the nasty extra voting power to throw a wrench into the mix on anyone else’s lynch on his team, and has repeatedly refused to give it up, shadow’s claim and actions are making less and less sense, and we find out practically what Red Skeezix’ alignment is with Shadow’s death. Not to mention my own and everyone’s who has ever tried to off his head.
I want Suburban Plankton dead like Ahab wants his white whale, but I’d willingly deny myself that prize to see Darth ShadowFacts end up with his head upon a pike, proving Red Skeezix is either townie, or the Lords of Slaughter are more interested in slaughtering **themselves **than the Defenders of De’endee.
And if Shadow IS innocent, we need Red Skeezix dead ASAP.
I’m willing to put up with one additional round of a scum roleblocker blocking Lightfoot harmlessly, we’ll get him tomorrow, or we’ll get Red Skeezix tomorrow… either way, scum heads will roll.
I have to know what’s going on underneath ShadowFacts’ robes. If it is townie-ness, then Red must die. After that, Suburban Plankton is a fine, fine choice. If it is evil-ness, then ShadowFacts must die, and then I want to see Red Skeezix kill me some Plankton.
Nom, nom, nom nom nom.
[SIZE=2]Still, I like this discussion and please do continue to challenge every word that comes out of my mouth. There’s nothing like being on a lucky streak, leading to overconfidence and sloppy play, and then defeat, to put a bee in one’s bonnet.
[/SIZE]
Well, you’re not going to get much argument from me regarding Shadowfacts’ need to die. If the bandwagon happens to run away without me while I’m still thinking, I’ll wave it a fond farewell. Last night’s paranoia aside.
Good point(s) about the implications for Red; I wasn’t thinking about that.
Normal Phase, what are you saying? I have more sympathy for your case on SF than before (actually, before, it made me actively suspicious of you), but why shouldn’t SF block ATPG? I guess he didn’t have to block anybody, is that what you mean? Blocking ATPG is kinda the same as blocking nobody, if he is vanilla town, which seems pretty likely.
I do not want a runaway bandwagon either; you know that I am the biggest advocate against large wagons, even on guilty people. The Star Wars game where dcmort got lynched with like 32 votes on him, the nearest candidate having 1 or 2 votes, just proves how insane and counterproductive such wagoning is.
It completely kills discussion, handicaps the town, releases all pressure on all scumbags, including the unfortunate sap who knows he’s going to die, since his fate is already certain, and leaves absolutely nothing to analyze.
As dangerous as it was to play devil’s advocate when I was so sure on septimus in the early game, the counter-wagons and chances for septimus to escape seem to have revealed people’s true intentions regarding septimus, and shadowfacts. There is so much in this thread that can be analyzed, and we still got septimus, and now, we’re close to bagging Lord number two. A large wagon on septimus wouldn’t have provided any clues, and it would have killed discussion off, and maybe ended our days early. Even when its the right candidate, ending the discussion or the day early, or ending all other options or chances for counterplay, is both boring and handicapping.
I wouldn’t advise anyone lock in on anyone just yet. We have 5 days, let’s use them to make absolutely certain the reasoning is right, and the votes are right, and that we have a game plan in case we’re wrong. Time is on our side.
Whatever the Lords of Slaughter are doing right now, they can’t be particularly pleased by the direction things are going, I don’t imagine.
Shadowfact’s/Ed’s Role PM says that each ability may be used twice and if the ability fails for any reason, he may use it again. Does using a block on someone who does nothing count as a fail? If not, then it would be a waste to use it on ATPG, unless SF thought he was secretly scum.
Shadowfacts, what was your assumption there? Were you concerned about wasting a use of your power on a claimed vanilla?
A town vig who knows he is doubted and wants to prove his good intentions probably does not block a vanilla player at all, because such a block is trivial to fake. (Unless there are watchers or trackers around, but there have been no signs of them.) And he probably doesn’t block ATPG at all after yesterday (as I said, a block of me woudl have been slightly more convincing). It’s too low odds that he’s scum at all, much less scum and the killer. (Even having gotten the no-scum-kill night that would be Shadow’s presumed goal as a townie, he doesn’t try to go there on ATPG. So why bother?)
However, a scum trying to fake a block has trouble shooting blind, because he doesn’t know where all the power roles are. What if he “targets” someone who can contradict him? So that’s why scum faking blocks will go for vanillas if they have no other safe options, and why town often won’t, absent strong suspicion.
It’s probably bad form to argue SF’s point for him, but, his theory has been that Red and septimus were bussing each other. Therefore, my strong defense of Red Skeezix, plus the idea that Red Skeezix would expect to be blocked, leads to the idea of “what if Pizza and Red Skeezix and septimus are all scum?”
And then of course he’d expect me to be the one doing the killing, instead of Red.
It matches, it’s a nice theory, and it’s probably what SF was thinking if he is townie.
Sadly I am not scum, and I’ll even toss my head on the pile if Red turns up scum. Bringing down septimus and Red Skeezix is worth one vanilla townie’s head. But I’d love to hear Lightfoot confirm I was scanned so we don’t have to make good on that threat.
I just have a few minutes before we head out of town for the day, and won’t be back until this evening. A couple observations until then.
In light of **Red’s **claim, it seem that one of the following must be true
**Red **is lying
**ShadowFacts **is lying
**LightFoot **is lying
There is a third roleblocker
There seems to now be a ‘general consensus’ that **Askthepizzaguy **is **LightFoot’s **one cleared Townie. I think this would be a good time for **LightFoot **to simply tell us whether that consensus is correct.
That’s great. That makes no sense, but it is HIGHLY entertaining.