Jeter passed Eddie Murray with his 3256 career hit. Who do you think will be the last player he passes in his career?
For reference, here’s the all-time hits list. Right now they still have Jeter at 3,255, but he does have 3,256 right now. If he stays hot he has a chance to pass Willie Mays for 11th all-time before the end of this season. Since he signed his latest contract two seasons ago my assumption has been that Jeter he’ll play out that contract and then retire. Although since July of last season I think he’s been much better than most people expected, so maybe I’m wrong. I’m trying to decide whether I think getting to Speaker is realistic, because I think that’s around the limit for him. To pass Speaker by the end of 2014 Jeter would need 259 hits in a maximum of 363 games. I think he has a pretty good shot even if you assume he’ll sit out around 40 games even if healthy over that period.
No Rose? No Cobb? Where’s the Jeter-love? I’m disappointed. He the man. He can do anything, why not pass Rose easily? He’s the reason the Yankees win. Best player EVAH.
Right now, I think he’s on a 200+ hit pace, leading the league. By any outward appearance, he doesn’t seem to be breaking down.
If he continues like this, he’ll be at about 3300 by season’s end. That leaves 330 hits to pass Musial, he plays out the 2 remaining seasons on his contract, 165 hits per season seems pretty doable given where he is now. Aaron is another 140 on top of that, call it one more season.
Then, it’s another 300 hits for Cobb, 2 seasons. 70 hits for Rose, one last season.
To sum up:
Plays out his 2 year contract, he passes Musial for 4th
Adds 1 more season 3rd
Adds 3 more seasons 2nd
Adds 4 more seasons 1st.
I could see him extending 1 more season, I wouldn’t expect 3-4 more seasons.
I’ve ALREADY underestimated Jeter, who’s having a MUCH better season this year than I ever thought he could. Just two years ago, I was ready to write him off as a starter for the Yankees.
Even so, I don’t see any way he’s going to get to 4,000 hits. I think he could stick around another three years, average about 150 hits a year, and retire right around where Stan Musial is now.
I just don’t see him getting 200 hits a year again.
Exactly 1000 hits behind Rose. Impossible. I would be thrilled if he managed to pass Speaker, though. I could see him playing three more seasons, but they’ll need to move him to third base to make it happen. A-Rod is DH only material now; it’s not that he can’t play third, it’s that he can’t stay healthy.
Jeter and Rodriguez are both going to get more and more DH at-bats as time goes on. I don’t know if they would move A-Rod to DH basically full-time while shifting Jeter to third, but it makes sense to me. They can’t really move him anyplace else- a move to the outfield would be preposterous at this stage.
I’ve long wondered if the ‘23’ in your name had anything to do with Don Mattingly. Since this is sort of about third base, I remember seeing Mattingly play there a couple of times. I’m pretty sure that’s the only time I’ve seen a lefty throwing third baseman.
I can’t see Jeter hanging on, playing past his prime. I think he will hang up his cleats while he still has a little gas in the tank.
Well, I suppose it was inevitable… when a 38 year old who WAS showing clear signs of decline starts to play like a star again, what are people going to ask?
I make no accusations. But I understand perfectly why other people would, and at this point, I CAN’T state categorically that ANY athlete in ANY sport is absolutely 100% clean.
Nah. It’s mostly for Robert Anton Wilson.
I’m not positive that any modern player is clean, but entirely independent of what he’s suggested about Jeter, Bayless is an ass. This isn’t even informed speculation. It’s empty speculation. Meanwhile Jeter added another hit last night, and for the first time in his career he’s homered in three straight games.
I picked between Musial and Aaron just for the heck of it.
Jeter is resurgent this year, but 38. He could be done after 2013 or could last three more full years. I think anywhere from 300 to 600 more hits is a reasonable guess, but 600 would be quite a lot. I would not bet on more.
Let’s be clear here - “other people” is a set of one person: Skip Bayless. The man is a complete and utter moron, who brays and screams anything borderline-controversial in an attempt to get attention.
But Colin Cowherd this morning mentioned that baseball insiders apparently weren’t surprised that Melky and Colon were doing something dirty, given their resurgence. Cowherd also said he doesn’t think Jeter’s dirty, but it’s not inappropriate to ask the question, even if the guy who first spoke up is a class-A say anything for publicity jerk. Jeter’s numbers are basically unique for a guy his age and at his position. So Jeter’s either the best shortstop at his age since Honus Wagner because he’s finally clear of nagging injuries… or he’s doing something.
Another prize pig.
Consider how good a hitter Jeter has been throughout his career. He hasn’t become a ridiculously good hitter overnight after years of being a bad hitter guy and he hasn’t come back from several seasons of injuries and inactivity. What he’s doing is exceptional, but he’s an extremely good hitter who’s bounced back some and is still hitting well at 37/38.
Colin is miles behind Skip! But both are in the same zip code.
That’s bullshit (not you - Cowherd) - I realize idle, unbased speculation is bread and butter for hacks like Bayless and Cowherd, but that’s all it is: idle unbased speculation. You can criticize MLB for having a history of not doing jack shit regarding PED use in the past, but their current system is pretty damn good for detecting substance use. If Jeter was cheating, he’d be caught.
Cal Ripken Jr, age 38, hit .340/.368/.584. Admittedly, he was playing third base at that point. (And only played 86 games that year).
Also a bit of a cautionary tale for anyone who thinks Jeter can just keep going, as Ripken’s production cratered the following year.
Jeter’s game hasn’t changed, nor has his body. A lot of his hits are bloopers and dribblers. The last few games excepted, he isn’t hitting the cover off the ball.
I feel really stupid about Melky Cabrera, though. I was rooting for him, even following his season in the box scores. People were saying that he was finally getting serious about conditioning etc., After all that has happened, it should have been obvious that he was getting a little chemical help.
Well, first of all, Jeter’s a terrible shortstop. He’s one of the better HITTERS to play the position in his late 30s.
Secondly. Jeter has an OPS of +119. That’s pretty good but he’s not exactly Babe Ruth up there. The only thing he’s really doing especially well is hitting singles; he’s not walking a lot and he has 40 extra base hits, which is good but nothing special. A boost in singles is usually more luck than anything else.