Dissect your NFL team here

In My Humble Opinion
1

As mentioned in Stuffy’s Week 1 NFL thread, I thought it would be interesting to see everyone break down their favorite/local team so that we can have a true, inside analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each team (or as many teams as possible). So to start,

2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Key Losses and Acquistions:
This team is now, for better or for worse, Jon Gruden’s team. He forced out the beloved Rich McKay in order to bring in his man, Bruce Allen from the Raiders. He’s cut ties with the Tony Dungy defenses of the past by letting go of John Lynch (Broncos) and Warren Sapp (Raiders) and of course got rid of Keyshawn (Cowboys) in a very public firing in place last year. I can’t necessarily disagree with all of those, although the defense definitely looked shaky in the first half of yesterday’s game. In addition to those losses, Michael Pittman is ineligible for the first three games, Joe Jurevicious is out for at least the first six on IR with back problems and Keenan McArdell is in the midst of a holdout over what he perceives as missed promises from the front office on a renegotiated contract.

There have been several additions to shore up what was a very shaky offensive line last year. There are four new starters and it showed Sunday, as the Bucs gave up three sacks on their last three plays. Derrick Deese and Todd Steusie are the new tackles and Matts Stinchcomb and O’Dwyer come in at guard. Only one wide receiver returns from 2004, with the venerable Tim Brown, the snakebit Joey Galloway (already hurt again) and rookie Michael Clayton expected to get the majority of looks. Bill Schroeder comes in and will get some looks, but mostly as a third or fourth receiver. Charles Lee had some nice gains late last year and may get another chance with Galloway injured. In the backfield Brad Johnson retains his QB job although Chris Simms looked good enough to at least challenge for the number two spot with Brian Griese as the veteran backup. Mike Alstott is back from surgery on his neck which is a risky proposition, particularly given his smash mouth running style. Charlie Garner, another member of the former Raiders in the wrong Bay movement is also available, but it’s not clear if he’s lost a bit or the O-line is just not yet come together for run blocking.

On defense, Booger MacFarland is expected to fill Warren Sapp’s shoes. He’s always looked good when lined up next to Sapp, but now he is in a new position and doesn’t have Sapp to take the double teams. Simeon Rice is the speed rusher on right tackle and Ellis Wyms and Greg Spires should get the majority of time in the other two spots. Ian Gold, who is talented but coming off of serious knee surgery is a key addition in the linebacking corps. He fits Monte Kiffin’s mold (speed over size) and will line up with Shelton Quarles and Derrick Brooks, who is also not getting any younger. In the backfield Brian Kelly is a key return from a torn bicep last year, along with Jermaine Phillips at safety, who is promoted to replace John Lynch, but didn’t record a single tackle against the Skins. Ronde Barber continues to be underrated, IMO, and Dwight Smith is quiet but dependable at the other safety position.

Offensive Assessment
There are just too many question marks on offense for this team. The only really consistent position is QB, and Brad Johnson seems to continue his penchant for making questionable decisions from last year. Michael Clayton could be very good but I don’t expect a whole lot from him this year. Charlie Garner is better suited as a third down back, and even now I’m not sure about that. Michael Pittman is an adequate starter but I wouldn’t want him on a fantasy team. The tight ends, Dilger and Dudley are okay, but not spectacular and again come with high mileage.

Defensive Assessment
They looked rusty and on their heels in their first game, but as the game went on they got better, which is a good sign. Now they need to show a complete game out of the gate. Jermaine Phillips needs to get involved and they need to send Ian Gold or Brooks occasionally to augment the pass rush. Simeon Rice needs to get back to his 15+ sacks and Booger needs to help in pressuring the QB. This can be a good defensive team, but whether or not they can be great will take more time. My guess is probably not.

Overall Assessment
The Bucs will always struggle against solid runners. They are especially vulnerable to big, pounding backs and will occasionally let a guy pop a big run against them. But the defense is still good for about 3-7 points a game. On offense this team is scary, and not in a good way. They need Galloway to be healthy and hold the ball in order to stretch the field. Clayton is a big target across the middle who should impress if the line can give Johnson enough time to locate him. Special teams seem improved, although Gramatica has been very inconsistent in the preseason and punting if off, kick coverage and returns look a lot better.

Overall, I’d say this is an average team. Not as bad as some pundits have them, not as good as locals would like to believe.

2

2004 Cleveland Browns:

The Browns are the only team in the league without an official logo, the reason being that there was no way to secure trademark rights for the question mark. There was a little chin scratching last fall when it was announced that team CEO Carmen Policy was selling back the ten percent ownership stake he received to head up the team in 1999. There was no real reason given at the time only a rather thin claim that the repurchase had been planned all along. In the off season Carmen was replaced, along with much of the rest of the front office staff leavening head coach Butch Davis with almost complete control over all aspects of football operations, from talent evaluation to game day decision making. I wish I could be more excited about this but he seems to have been given a Vince Lombardi / Paul Brown level of power with precious little in the way of a track record to justify it. The fact is that now he will have no one else to blame if the team continues to flounder, however if he does fail the team will need to replace an entire front office in addition to a head coach.

Key Losses and Acquisitions:
Added:

Jeff Garcia, a definite upgrade in QB. He isn’t superman and has been susceptible to injuries but until one of the young first rounders on the other teams prove otherwise, he’s the best QB in the division.

Kellen Winslow Jr., May have been over hyped and Davis got his pocket picked to get him but he’s already showing signs of adding a new dimension to the offence.

Losses:

Tim Couch, after five years the Tim Couch era officially ended. The first pick in the 99 draft had a few moments of brilliance and at times he showed a lot of heart but for whatever reasons he was never able to elevate his level of play, the subtleties of a pro offence (which he didn’t play in collage) evaded him as often as he failed to evade opposing pass rushers. The fire and confidence he showed early seemed to get beaten out of him hit by hit. I saw a little of him in the preseason for Green Bay, he played like he was on remote control and I’ve seen trauma victims with more spark in their eyes.

Mark Word, last years sack leader who showed flashes on an otherwise overpaid and under performing defensive line failed to make the cut after the addition a several warm bodies (including NFL Europe’s defensive player of the year Corey Jackson).

Chris Gardocki, this one surprised me, Gardocki may not have had the strongest leg but he is a master of directional punting. What he may have lacked in hang time he made up for in precision placement, let alone never having a punt blocked.
Offensive Assessment:

Many questions. The line is a lot healthier than last year but it still lacks depth. Gone are a few of the stop gap guys pressed into service last year but we really need to hope their replacements won’t see many snaps.

The running game looks to be significantly improved, William Green seems to be staying clean and steering clear of the substance abuse problems that likely cost him and the team their first 1,000 yard performance since Kevin Mack. Last years 4th round pick Lee Suggs who’s 185 yards helped keep Cincy out of the playoffs in week 16 last year showed he was for real in the pre season. Hopefully the shoulder “stinger” which kept him out of game one clears up soon. The two of them could give the Browns the best one two punch they’ve had in twenty years.

Garcia is a clear upgrade at QB, even against a tough Raven defense he showed moments of decisiveness and much needed pocket awareness. The receiving corp. has both size and speed but are inconsistent. They can burn you quick or drop an easy pass to stop a drive. The addition of Winslow will create some interesting match up problems for an opposing defense and should provide more single coverage down field for the other receivers. The team still need more time to absorb new offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie’s scheme, there were too many three and outs and drive killing miscues on Sunday but they did manage to put up 17 unanswered points in the second half.
Defensive Assessment:
Either the D’s very underrated, we got lucky or Dave Campo’s a hell of a coordinator. Jamal Lewis was held to less than fifty yards against a team he annihilated last year. There’s a lot of youth and speed on this squad and it’s beginning to gel. The line had an infusion of bodies including former Green Bay first round bust Jamal Reynolds which, in addition to a few flawed picks of our own might give Cleveland an NFL record for the highest number of first round linemen riding the pine at one time. That being said the run blocking has been upgraded and we should be able to keep enough fresh legs in the game at all times to maintain some pass rush. In spite of Brant Boyer’s season ending injury in the preseason the linebackers are improved as well. A very fast and athletic group that was prone to bite on a fake or over pursue has another year of experience under their belts. The injury to second round pick Sean Jones is a major loss; with the exception of offensive line no position on the team was as thin as safety. We will just have to hope that Campo can scheme his way out of giving up too many deep plays.
Overall Assessment:
There are many questions facing this team. No one expects us to light up a scoreboard but if the line stays healthy 17-23 points a game are not out of the question. The D has some holes deep but look to have significantly improved on the point of attack and run defense in general. I’ve been impressed with our special teams, even with the loss of Gardocki, there’s a lot of fire in these guys. If they represent the over all depth of a team then the future may be looking brighter on the shore of Lake Erie.

Assumeing good health I see 10 and 6 being more likely than 6 and 10 and in the unstable AFC North 10 and 6 might win the division.

3

Right then, the Eagles. I guess I should stick to the template, so here goes.

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

Key Losses and Acquisitions:

Where to begin? Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, maybe the best starting cornerback tandem in the NFL over the last five or six years, are both gone due to salary and age concerns. Of players who either started or played significant roles for the Eagles last season, Duce Staley, Carlos Emmons, James Thrash, Brandon Whiting and John Welbourn have all been traded or allowed to sign elsewhere. Backups A.J. Feeley, Marco Coleman, and Bobbie Williams are likewise gone. Just as significantly, big back Correll Buckhalter, DE N.D. Kalu, rookie tailback Bruce Perry, and as of today starting guard Shawn Andrews are all gone for the season with injuries.

Big holes to fill, even without the injuries, which leads me to the new faces. Jevon Kearse and Hugh Douglas are the new (or newly returned) starting defensive ends. Terrell Owens is the capable target Philly fans have so desperately sought for years. Besides those three headliners, MLB Jeremiah Trotter makes a less than triumphant return and Dhani Jones joins him in the linebacking corps, sliding into Emmons’ spot while Emmons fills his in New York. Jeff Blake is the most recent addition to the quarterbacking stable, and although he’s listed as third string, I think he’d be the guy you’d see out there if Donovan McNabb misses significant time. The aforementioned Andrews was the Eagles first rounder in the draft; in fact they traded up to acquire Andrews. With he and Perry on IR, the only draft picks who should contribute this year are cornerbacks Matt Ware and Dexter Wynn, safety/ return man J.R. Reed, and RB Thomas Tapeh.

The net gain after all these moves? Before the injuries, things looked much safer. Now there are significant questions- at halfback (although Dorsey Levens will in all likelihood be signed), in the secondary, and at the right guard position, which will be filled by the untested Artis Hicks, another converted tackle. The addition of Owens is huge- unspeakably huge. With his three touchdowns yesterday, TO has already accounted for 60% of the Eagles’ receivers’ 2003 TD total. The effect his presence will have on the offense will most likely determine the Eagles’ postseason fate. Kearse and Douglas bring a dynamic pass rush to the front four that was absent at times last season, but at the same time receivers figure to be coming open more quickly and more often against raw corners Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, Roderick Hood, Ware, and Wynn. Emmons to Jones is a significant downgrade, but a combination of Trotter and Mark Simoneau in the middle is better than Simoneau alone.

Offensive Assessment

Well, you saw the upside yesterday. TO was getting loose in every sense of the word, and McNabb consistently looked like the guy he tends to look like only in spots; that is, he was accurate and put touch on his throws. Owens’ presence freed up even little Todd Pinkston for a long reception, and L.J. Smith caught a touchdown as well. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of the passing game allowed Reid to limit the carries of explosive but injury-prone tailback Brian Westbrook, which is crucial. Westbrook is extremely fragile, and a serious injury to him could end the Eagles’ chances at contention. The passing game will be fine, it seems. The only thing that remains to be seen is whether or not the Eagles’ line will be able to move teams like the Panthers off the line of scrimmage enough to run the ball consistently. Again, Shawn Andrews’ injury hurts on that front.

Defensive Assessment

Can they stop the run? No, most likely, they cannot. A more appropriate question might be, is the loss of both corners going to mean that their inability to stop the run leads to more touchdown drives? The Eagles of 2001-2003 seemed to have an uncanny ability to get shredded against the run, sometimes to the tune of 200+ yards, and still win the game comfortably. Long drives ended up in field goals and turnovers more often than touchdowns, and so teams could seemingly run at will but never reach the end zone. Hollis Thomas is back healthy for the moment, and he provides a big body up the middle, but other than his and Trotter’s returns, the Eagles don’t look to be much improved against the run. Against the pass, they will most likely be fine, although they may retreat a bit from the dominance of recent years. In an overall sense, a defense with Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis at safety and a front four named Douglas, Walker, Simon, and Kearse is probably going to be a very good defense. If Sheppard and/or Brown make significant strides, it will be a great defense. There will be matchup problems- without Emmons, they lack a 'backer with the ability to shut down a tight end, a big receiver could manhandle Sheppard, a quicker receiver could blow by Brown, etc., but most teams would gladly take the personnel the Eagles are trotting out there. Next Monday night will be telling- in Randy Moss and in a very good, very big Vikings offensive line, the Eagles will be facing exactly the type of matchup that could give them problems. If they can’t either contain Moss or get penetration against the run, that could be a sort of foreshadowing of how they might meet their fate in the end.

Overall Assessment

12 wins, 13 wins, 14 wins, it doesn’t matter. Barring major injury, this team should get to the Super Bowl. I see no team in the NFC with the offensive talent and experience to beat the Eagles, especially if they take care of business and wrap up home field. A loss in the Super Bowl to one of the more polished AFC teams seems likely, and what are you gonna do? I think I’d actually be able to handle that. Not getting to the Show is unacceptable at this point, however. Look for an early loss in which Owens doesn’t feature prominently, and wait for the talking heads to trip over themselves forecasting disaster. Then forget about it. This team will win the division by at least a game, and earn a bye. Beyond that, well, I won’t even bother.

4

Well, I wish I had brighter prospects going into this post, but we play the hand we’re dealt…season after season…

A Slight change to the template since I can’t manage to discuss roster changes without giving assessment in the same breath, I guess I need an editor, sorry this is so long winded.

2004 Chicago Bears

Offensive Changes and Assessment:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. 7 different starting QBs in the last 7 seasons. This year, its Rex Grossman’s turn. The Bears have a consistent knack for being just good enough to miss out on a blue chip prospect and lacking the patience to wait for a chance to get a good QB. Years when the QB class is deep, like this past year, we’re already working on a project QB from a lesser class. Funny, I remember that with a guy named McCown, er, McNown.

Anyways, I’m actually not all that down on Grossman. He’s shown a lot of ability and doesn’t tend to get happy feet and is able to make a decisive throw when it’s there for him. However, he’s basically a rookie when you consider that he’s a 2nd year guy with a new coaching staff and tons of new offensive teammates. That means there’ll be mistakes, many at first as you saw yesterday. I think he’ll out grow those by about week 6 and become a solid QB, but not a difference maker. At the very least he definately has the mentality and attitude to learn and succeed, young QBs like that seem to be rarer than once thought. Quinn’s been stolen from the Chiefs by former QB coach and new OC Terry Shea to back him up, a nice security blanket to bring in a guy who the coach knows and who knows the system.

The rest of the offense is totally overhauled. Adding Tait and Brown on the line could be the most underrated moves. The Bears line was the source of most of their problems, and they should pair with Kruetz and a healthy and more experienced group from last year to be solid, even dominating at times.

Thomas Jones as RB is a great pick up, a guy labeled a bust, seems ready to break out. He’s a downhill runner, the thing about downhill runners is that they tend to struggle behind pourous lines or in zone blocking systems. Thats been a big part of his problem to date I think. In the new system he wil thrive. He won’t be Priest Holmes, but the offensive scheme will play to his strengths and mean consistent positive yardage with the occasional home run, which he has the speed to do well. That alone will make Grossman more effective. A-Train sticks around to spell him, and if he learns to run with better balance he can be an excellent change of pace back wih a improved line allowing him to get up to speed before having to make a cut or take a hit.

The WR core isn’t new, but they all spent alot of time on the bench last year. The loss of Booker isn’t as big a blow as people have said. Great guy, great hands, reliable as hell, but never really much of a game breaker. You need a guy who can catch the ball over the middle and get first downs, and he does that, but you can find those guys easier than a decent DE. In the new scheme those tough first downs are expected to be picked up by RBs and TEs anyways. For this reason I expect TE Desmond Clark to have a nice season, if he’s healthy Rex will be wise to learn to connect with him often. Lets hope Shea tries to find some Gonzalez-esque magic in him. The fate of the passing game lies mostly in bust-to-date David Terrell. He can be very good, think a young Keyshawn, if he gets his head on straight. Too much talking, taunting and whining, not enough tenacious effort. This week he showed an ability to get open, and also an ability to make dumb mistakes. Stone-handed Dez White is gone, leaving Gage and Wade to round out the crew. They won’t dazzle, though you can expect a few big passes to Gage on fly route to loosen the D.

Defensive Changes and Assessment:
Things on this side of the ball aren’t nearly as vastly different as the offense, but there are a few notable changes. The key is probably the loss of Warrick Holdman, a weak side guy that Urlacher teamed really well with. Urlacher, Colvin and Holdman once upon a time were the best 3-some in football. Urlacher is the only one left. Urlacher will be Urlacher, and looked very impressive in week one. The rest of the LBs are young and fast, mainly bolstered by Briggs and Odom, but if there’s going to be a glaring weakness this year this could be it. The defensive line will be faster and smaller, so we’ll see if that helps or hurts the LBs. I can make an arguement for both, so we’ll have to wait and see. They should be good against the pass and struggle against the power runners.

They let Keith Traylor move on, ending the era of the Super-sized DTs in Chicago. We’ll see if Urlacher still has room to operate behind not-exactly-svelt Ian Scott and Alonzo Boone. Two wide bodies that are expected to be stout in short yardage run first situations. The addition of Adewale Ogunleye will make a major difference in the pass rush, not just in his sacks, but in the fact that hopeful-stud Alex Brown can now be the starting offside rusher avoiding double teams. A young crop of high draft pick DLs should create an effective rotation compared to years past.

The secondary is one of the strengths of this young defense. Azumah and McQuarters are talented vets that have always played well against some strong WR competition. Tillman is going to be a stud this year. The Crayola squad of Brown, Grey and Green make for a hard hitting crew of safeties that will help against what could be a soft run D and makes guys like Rogers[sub]…er…Williams[/sub], Moss and Walker play with alligator arms.

Special Teams:
This is easily the strongest aspect of this squad. Great coverage teams supplied mostly by the deep, young and hungry set of defenders trying to earn PT. McQuarters is a very talented punt/kick returner and always makes positive yards and seems to pop one of 25+ nearly every week. Edinger is a consistently underrated guy mainly because the Bears offense has been so bad he hasn’t had the chance to put up great fantasy numbers. He’s about as consistent as they come considering the weather we play in for half the season. Maynard has become an impressive weapon punting, I guess he got a lot of practice in the Jauron/Shoop years.

Final Summary:
The Bears will improve and will fight tooth and nail to stay out of the cellar here. The Vikings and Packers are going to be good, as usual, and the Lions aren’t totally helpless any more so the division isn’t a cakewalk, so I am not going to forecast anything better than .500. I think they’ll mature faster than the Lions overall, for all the talk the Lions offense has gotten, they’ve neglected the D. For that reason I think we get out of the cellar, and Green Bay will be an Ahman Green injury away from a 7-9 season so 2nd place isn’t total insanity. (Yesterday’s Loss certainly puts a damper on it though) Expect a defense that puts some hurt on people but gives up the occasional big run and 120 yards a game, though they’ll show much improvement against the pass. The offense will be pedestrian, but it’ll look like the Greatest Show on Turf compared to last season. A steady running game will keep games close. Sadly, the Bears youth and propensity for stupid mistakes means they’ll lose more of those than they’ll win. If we beat the Packers who cares…

5

I’ll take a stab at it. My favorite team is the G-Men, but I am also a big fan of the Jets, whom I think had the best offseason in the entire league, and will win the Superbowl. (Over the Cowboys, no less.) So while it would be more fun, and certainly less depressing, to do the Jets, I’ll start with the Giants. And I won’t be following the template. Pffft!

2004 New York Giants

The Lines - Offense
The offensive line was shored up with journeyman. Stokes and O’Hara were solid pickups, though not superstars. All healthy, this overall line is actually quite good. We were dealt a massive blow when both Seubert and Stokes went down, but the recent acquisition of Jason Whittle was remarkable for two reasons: first, it replaced an injury with an equal talent, and second, it was an actual trade. The Giants made a non-offseason trade! (Actually they made 2.) Chris Snee may indeed be a homer pick by Coughlin, but it was a good pick nonetheless. SI already rated Snee as the best OL on the team. I wouldn’t go that far, but he is quite good. Petitgout needs to step up and stay healthy this year. Diehl will continue to impress, eventually becoming a longtime mainstay of the team.

The nice thing about the Giants is that the core OL is young-ish and talented, and I believe that they will have gelled nicely by the bye week in week 6. As an added bonus, several starters have the ability (and even some experience) to play anywhere on the line, so there is an inherent flexibilty in handling injuries.

The Lines - Defense
Ugh. The defensive line will kill us this year. Teams win and lose by the line play, and our DL will earn far more losses than our OL will earn wins. Losing Kenny Holmes and Keith “The Hammer” Hamilton was bad. William Joseph could be a player. Like all rookie DL, he didn’t do so well in his first year, but now he’s in his second, breakout year. He had better break out. Strahan is possibly the best pass rusher in history, and is also tremendous against the run. But he is only one man, and not a young one, either. I foresee many 100+ yard rushing games for the Giants opponents.

Skill Positions
Kurt Warner is a definite downgrade from “Scary” Kerry Collins. That is not terrible, though, as it will open the door for Eli to get more playing time than he would if Collins was still on the roster. The Bachelor is possibly the best #3 QB in the league.

If they can both eliminate the fumbles, Thunder and Lightning will return to superbowl form. That would help ease the agony of the brewing QB controversy. No fumbles for eaither in week one, so here’s hoping. Dayne, for his part, has done everything in his power to maximize this opportunity Coughlin has given him. His hunger should infect Tiki as well. The Giants could be in the top 10 of the league in combined rushing yards. The downside is lack of depth. We have Barber, Dayne, FB Jim Finn, and no other running backs. One injury and we’ll have to scramble.

The receivers are fine, if not outstanding. Hilliard has great hands and will go across the middle in the red zone, but is fragile. Toomer had the dropsies last year, but could easily bounce back and have a solid year in 2004. Tim Carter and David Tyree are solid slot receivers, and Willie Ponder and Jamaar Taylor offer warm-body depth at WR, though Taylor impressed in camp. Shockey will continue to be a big-play guy, which means he’ll continue to tear your heart out with bad drops, but will also make some impossible 3rd down catches. From the looks of week one’s loss to the Eagles, Shockey may also develop into a quality run blocker, though he is increasingly developing into an injury-prone guy. Backup TE Visanthe Shiancoe desperately needs to improve his hands. If he can make some clutch catches, Big Blue could finally shake the red zone curse.

Linebackers
Trading Dhani Jones for Carlos Emmons was an upgrade in ability, but a downgrade in durability. Barret Green is probably a wash with Brandon Short, but Short had an intensity that rubbed off on others. Losing Michael Barrow was ill-advised and short-sighted. Sadly, we never replaced him; we just elevated the backups. As backups go, Griesen was actually quite good. As a starter, he’s awful. Kevin Lewis, another backup, has been named starter in his place. Both are suspect, and neither provide the emotional backbone that Barrow did. Linebackers are our most glaring weakness this season, even worse than the defensive line, who could conceivably come together and play well as a unit.

Secondary
The Giants’ secondary is all hype and no payoff. Shaun Williams, Will Allen, and Will Peterson all consistently underperform, and now all have massive contracts, which may hurt their drive. The FS position battle between Omar Stoutmire and Brent Alexander is interesting, but neither should be a starter in this league. Ray Walker has great potential at dimeback, but I am still not sold on Terry Cousin at nickelback. All in all, an overpaid, underperforming unit. The worst part is that this is our strongest unit on defense.

Special Teams
After inexplicably cutting Delvin Joyce, Coughlin and Accorsi have scrambled to find returners. Willie Ponder and that Jones guy should be acceptable, meaning most drives will start on the 21, and there should be few fumbles. Feagles will continue to be a bright spot, and hopefully has learned to keep his head on a swivel during punt returns. Steve Christie was an inspired acquisition. He has always been solid, and will continue to be. (He recovered the suicide onside kick to spark the Bills against the Oilers in the greatest comeback in playoff history.) David Tyree is a standout in coverage, and hopefully will continue to draw double teams, freeing up the other gunner to make big plays. The fact that I don’t even know who the other gunner is doesn’t encourage me.

Outlook
The Giants will finish in the bottom 10 of the league on defense, and have a chance to breach the top 10 on offense. This will translate into a realistic 7-9, though 9-7 isn’t out of the question due to the easy schedule.

6

That was so much fun, I’m gonna do the Jets. I don’t know as much about the Jets as the Giants, so if a harcore fan of Gang Green wants to do them later in the thread, by all means have at it.

2004 New York Jets

The Lines - Offense
I have no clue why Denny Green released Pete Kendall, but he was a major acquisition for the Jets, adding a quality starter to an already quality line. Mawae (sp?) continues to be the man. The Jets’ signature since Parcells took over has been the OL, and that trend continues in 2004. Fabini is decent. I don’t know any other names off the top of my head, so while they may not be great, they don’t stand out as glaring problems.

The Lines - Defense
This could be a truly great defensive line, although I’m not a fan of the 3-4 scheme. IMO, they have personel much more suited to a 4-3 approach, but what do I know? Josh Evans isn’t under a two month suspension for smoking weed this year, which is a refreshing change of pace, because he’s really quite good. Dewayne Robertson suffered the rookie slump all DL go through, but has already shown signs of greatness in the week one win over the Bengals. Donnie Abraham is a standout, but needs to stay healthy. Ferguson is solid, but I personally think Evans is better and should start ahead of him. Then again, it’s a moot point because there is no DT2 in the 3-4. With 3 solid DTs, the 3-4 seems to me to be misguided. Shawn Ellis is a decent enough end, though he’s not a superstar.

Skill Positions
If I were given a choice of the entire QB core of any team, I would take the Jets. Pennington is a top five QB, Carter is by far the best backup QB in the league, and Brooks Bollinger looks like he could be a starter in a couple years for another team. Maybe the Browns? In an ideal world, my backup would be one of this year’s first rounders, namely Losman, but you can’t complain about a playoff starter backing you up.

Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan both have big chips on their shoulders this season for different reasons. Martin feels he has to prove that he can get off to a strong start and be a major factor every game of the season, and Jordan feels he should be a starter. Call it the “Hambrick Syndrome”. Unlike Troy, Lamont is actually good. Assuming Curtis doesn’t maintain the greatness of week one’s game, Jordan will make an impact in the carries he gets. (Curtis was so good Jordan couldn’t get in the game at all.) As far as depth, I’m a fan of Reese, though I honestly don’t know why.

I love, love, LOVE what the Jets did in picking up McCareins. They have finally filled the gaping hole left by Laveranues Coles. Curtis Conway was a joke last year; Justin McCareins is the real deal. And he’s young. I sincerely hope he stays a Jet for the next 7 years. Jonathan Carter is a speed demon, and can really help out with a catch here and there while also spreading out the defense for McCareins and Moss. Speaking of Moss, his drops should lessen as he gets more reps, as he sat out most of preseason, but he’ll never have hands of glue. He’s a big play deep threat. Becht is okay, but I’m a believer in having a real threat at TE, which poor Anthony is decidely not. Hopefully they’ll draft a first round TE next year, if one is available at the 32nd pick.

Linebackers
Last year this unit was the achilles heel of the Jets, and picking up Vilma was a huge step in correcting that problem long term. While he is no Ray Lewis, I see him becoming a Michael Barrow: rock solid. Sam Cowart is solid but old. I guess this could justify the 3-4, having two good middle linebackers. But I’d rather have Josh Evans on the field over Sam Cowart any day. Victor Hobson is a anomaly. Sure he’s young, but is he good? I’m not convinced yet, but I’m willing to give him a chance, and so is Herm Edwards.

Secondary
I don’t really like the Jets’ secondary. Donnie Abraham is good, but I seem to feel he’s fragile. I can’t remember whether he actually is or not, it’s just an impression I have. They picked up Coleman this year and Pagel last year, so they have some young potential in reserve. I’m not sold on McGraw or Tongue, but I’ve adopted a wait and see attitude with them.

Special Teams
The units are fine, and I especially like Jonathan Carter returning kicks despite his opening kickoff fumble, which was awful. However, Brien is no John Hall, Gowin is average, and Herm’s complete lack of clock management will likely continue to hamstring the special teams. I don’t know any standouts in coverage, but there are a lot of young guys on the roster who I like at their positions, so hopefully that translates into good special teams. Who knows.

Outlook
With the additions of Justin McCareins, Pete Kendall, Quincy Carter, Jonathan Vilma, and the return of Josh Evans, what’s not to love? Combine that with the easiest schedule in the league, plus no Raiders game for the first time this millenium, and I see the Jets winning it all. Curtis and Jordan will combine for 200+ yards per game against the Ted Washington-less Patriots, and the Colts are pretty much the exact same team that lost 41-0 to the Jets 2 years ago. I see an 11-5 regular season record to get a first round bye, a win over the Patriots, a win in Indianpolis, and then glory over the Cowboys in the show.

Before you scoff, look at my schedule breakdown prediction:

Dolphins get swept: 2-0
Patriots and Bills split: 2-2
AFC North splits: 3-1 (beat Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and lose to Ravens)
NFC West splits: 3-1 (beat the 49ers, Cards, Rams, and lose to the Seahawks)
Chargers get crushed: 1-0
Texans get beat: 1-0

That’s 12-4 right there, and I’m only predicting an 11-5 finish. I figue they’ll lose a couple games they should win, and win a single game they should lose.

Jets all the way.

7

That should be Frank Walker, not Ray. I guess I got his name mixed up with Ray Green, who isn’t as good and was cut.

8

Very nice analysis so far. Not too much irrational optimism. I’m going to post a link to the other thread in the hopes that we can get some of the other teams covered.

9

San Francisco 49ers
Key Losses and Acquistions:

We had a lot of losses in the off-season. John York mand Terry Donohue made a decsiion to fix the cap once again, so gone are QB Jeff Garcia and receivers Terrell Owens and Tai Streets. As for Garcia, I’m happy for him, it’s hard being a Niners QB living in the huge shadows of Montana and Young. The loss of Terrell Owens was also the loss of a distraction. Streets was a reliable target at the other end, but in truth will always be a second or third target and so wasn’t suited to build around. Also gone is Defensive Coordinator Jim Mora Jr., who pretty much built our defense. This did however to allow Coach Dennis Erickson to bring in his own people so now he has his own coordinators who he’s comfortable working with.

Additions include Guard Justin Smiley, WR Rashaun Wood both draft picks, but more importantly acquired WR Curtis Conway to provide some veteran leadership. We’ve also signed some second and third year players at DT, and DE to add a lot more depth at these positions.

Offensive Assessment:

Right now the biggest question the Niners have is at QB. Rattay stayed perpetually injured during the off-season and is injured again now. However this may not be as big a problem as it sounds. Second year man Dorsey is actually a better fit for the offensive system the Niners run. Both have strong arms and good decision making, however Dorsey is 6’5” to Rattay’s 6”0”. Dorsey is also more mobile and poised in the pocket and seems to have better awareness when the pocket collapses. The OL is mostly young and anchored by longtime center Jeremy Newberry.

Fred Beasley was hurt in preseason, undoubtedly the best fullback in the NFL. He should return this week and bring the running game, anchored by Kevin Barlow back with him. The line does some good blocking opening up holes, but the loss of Beasley in the first game was glaring. With a healthy Beasley I expect a 1000-1500 yard season out of Barlow. We also have impressive third down back and special teams standout Terry Jackson (actually listed as fullback, but in a RB body) who can be counted o for the occasional 20-30 yard breakout.

The receiving core is our most underrated position. Starter Brandon Lloyd, who’s shown the ability to be an elite receiver, makes spectacular catches look routine. Cedric Wilson runs crisp routes and good hands. Third and fourth receivers are Curtis Conway a reliable veteran who provides leadership, and Terrell Owens clone Rashaun Woods. Look for woods to challenge Cedric Wilson for playing time. Fifth receiver Arnaz Battle is also a special teams standout. Tight end is another position we’ve got good players at with starter Eric Johnson being a reliable target over the middle that can take a hit and keep going. He’s also a very good run blocker, and picks up blitzes well. He’s backed up by Andre Ware, who did pretty okay in relief of Johnson last year, but needs to improve at holding on to passes. This group will allow the Niners to line up in an impressive array of formations.

Defensive Assessment:

This is the savior of the team. The defense returns virtually intact, led by veterans OLB Julian Peterson who’s the absolute stud at that position, and DT Bryant Young, who’s been anchoring the defensive line for what seems like forever.

I would put the Niners starting LB core against any in the league. This speedy four is who kept us in the game against Atlanta, and will probably have to do it consistently all year if we’re to remain in games. The Niners defensive scheme depends on speed rather than size, and was originally created to match up with the Rams. Now our new defensive coordinator wants to use it to show more 3-4 schemes which will allows us a lot of latitude in pass and run coverage. The relative smallness of the line will allow the occasional breakout game of some backs but will also cause some big losses in field position when there’s good coverage downfield.

In the secondary we’ve got NFL leading (interceptions) Tony Parrish who also shows the penchant for Ronnie Lott type hits. We’ve also got CB Mike Rumph who’s finally jelled at CB and likes to lay on the hits as well, he’s also looks great when called on for the blitzing package. Ahmed Plummer and Ronnie Heard are reliable at CB and Safety as well. Plummer is looking for a breakout year.

Overall Assessment:

This is a young team, who has all but been written off for the year. That status should keep them motivated to prove a lot of people wrong. The defense will keep us in games that would probably otherwise would be blowouts. The receiving core should jell at some point midseason to give us glimpses of what the future should look like. Right now, I’m still holding out for 8-8 won’t be too surprised if they go 6-10, but also won’t be too surprised if they get a game or so above .500.

10

Do you want different takes on the same team? I’m only knowledgable with one team and they’ve been covered already.

11

Key Losses and Acquistions:

I’m pretty sure that everyone will agree with me that the biggest acquisition the Danny made this year was bringing back Joe Gibbs. He’s the best coach this team has had since…well, Joe Gibbs. I’m genuinely surprised at how much better this team is playing already. He has this team believing they can, and should, win. So great to see him back.

As we’ve seen every year since he bought the team, Snyder decided to play fantasy football again, creating an NFL record $110 million payroll. On offense we have Clinton Portis as the main player acquisition. Chris Cooley, a rookie drafted in the 3rd round, seems to be a really good fit into the H-back position which is so crucial to Gibbs’ offense. James Thrash was brought back as a special teams player and 4th or 5th wide receiver. Also, Joe Bugel is doing a tremendous job with that O-line. After watching all the holding calls and sacks last year, I’m just thrilled that he’s back as well.

On defense we have Sean Taylor, who everyone is calling the next Ronnie Lott. I’ve seen him do some amazing things so far, but I think he still has a way to learn. He will kick some serious ass when he finally gets acclimated to the pros. Michael Barrow was signed away from the Giants, but he has yet to play. Antonio Pierce is playing excellently in his place. I can’t believe I’d never heard of Marcus Washington before, but he blows my mind. Brandon Noble is essentially a new recruit, since he got hurt and never played last year.

Offensive Assessment:

I’m a little concerned about the QB controversy between Brunell and Ramsey. Ramsey is undoubtedly the future of this franchise, but it’s probably a good idea to give him a year or two to learn Gibbs’ system. But I won’t be surprised to see him starting around midseason, given the way Brunell played on Sunday.

Finally, a running game has returned to DC. The running back by committee technique has been trying to make up for the loss of Stephen Davis, a 1,500 back. A lot of analysts are predicting Portis will rush for over 2,000 yards this year. I’d like to see him and Ahman Green race to see who can do it first.

The O-line looks great.

The WRs didn’t do much on Sunday, but I attribute that to Brunell. Get him going, and Coles and Gardner will look great.

Defensive Assessment:

It’s now official: LaVar Arrington is the heart and soul of this defense. I love the fact that he’s back on the weak side, where he can wreak the most havoc.

The D-line is looking pretty good. They got a lot of pressure on Brad Johnson the other day, and didn’t let the Bucs run a lot of yards, either.

The secondary looks better than average. I’m not sure that Fred Smoot is the guy to be locking up with the other team’s #1 WR, but maybe he’ll grow into that role. Matt Bowen had a career day on Sunday, getting his first ever sack and then getting another one. Shawn Springs looks like he has more in the tank than I thought he did. Nevertheless, I still think we’re really going to miss Champ Bailey, and I will go to my grave proclaiming that Bailey for Portis would have been a fair trade, and a 2nd round pick was just too much.

Overall:

Normally, I would say that the Redskins would be a sleeper team this year, but the hiring of Gibbs’ stole any surprise that they may have had. Everyone will be on the lookout for Washington this season. I’m expecting a good, solid 8-8 season, but I don’t think that 10-6 is out of the question, and they may actually manage to challenge the Eagles for the NFC East crown.

This year is going to kick ass in DC!

12

Nits:

Word wasn’t the sack leader on the team, Kenard Lang was. Word was the backup RDE. His release was a bit suprising though.

Jamal Reynolds was released shortly after he was picked up, well before the final roster cuts. You may be referring to Ebeneezer Ekuban formerly of Dallas who is considered a bust first rounder and is still with the team.

13

Wow, the 49ers are in more trouble than I thought. I hope he does well for you, but last year watching him start for the Jets was agony. I toned down my language in this thread, but in another thread (on another board, possibly) I referred to Curtis Conway as an “offensive joke”, and not in the context of him playing on offense. Much of New York was calling for (GM) Terry Bradway’s job last year almost exclusively because of trying to replace Laveranues Coles with Curtis Conway. Perhaps a Chargers fan – should there still be any left – can let us know the real skinny on Conway. But in all seriousness, Vinny played great last year. 100% of the horrible start could be laid at the feet of the two Curtises: Martin and Conway. (After Chad came back, the run defense took a vacation. I guess they got tired.)

14

SenorBeef, I stand corrected. :slight_smile:

15

Again Conroy is not a starter, he’s third or fourth or even fifth receiver (the Niners tend to bring in receivers dependent on the play). He does however provide leadership that other than thid year man Wilson and Second year man Lloyd the Niners lack at the receiver position. Yu don’t get the close up interviews we get here, but most of the receiver core is calling Conway “the older brother”.

16

I wouldn’t bother to rehash, but if you have a completely different take OR want to supplement what was already said about (it’s the Brownies, right) a team, then I think that would add value. Plus we can dig up the thread at the end of the year and see who was more accurate.

17

Oh okay, gotcha. Actually, I think you might be right. As a backup slot, he’s rock solid. And in that role, he probably does bring a helpful veteran leadership to the receiving corps. If you get some injuries so tht he has to start, however, you’ll be in for trouble.

Yeah, now you’re talking. I’ll be happy to eat crow when the Jets go 7-9 and the G-Men post the first winless season since the Bucs. But if the Jets get to the show, I gotta beat my chest a little. :slight_smile:

Regarding doubles of teams already covered, not one of the analyses done is exhaustive. More info on lines, backups, assistant coaches, and whatever is still needed, IMO. For instance, The Giants lost one of the best OL coaches in the league to Buffalo. And we brought in Sweatman as special teams coach, who is great. Not to mention our horrible defensive coordinator last year, who was replaced by the slightly less horrible defensive coordinator from Pittsburgh. :frowning:

18

Lord Ashtar has already done the Redskins, and I think he’s mostly on target. But let me add a few thoughts:

  1. Joe Gibbs is definitely the #1 acquisition. No player, no matter how talented, makes more of an impact than the head coach.

That was especially visible on Sunday when the Redskins had no penalties for false starts, no motion penalties, no holding penalties, no timeouts to sort out confusion about the play that was called…IOW, they didn’t beat themselves.

Obviously, they did make some mistakes. There was Brunell’s ill-advised attempt to get the handoff to Portis after stumbling, that Ronde Barber turned into the sole Bucs TD. And Galloway got behind Sean Taylor for what should have been an easy TD, except that he injured himself instead. And there were those two muffed snaps.

But those incidents aside, they looked professional out there.

  1. That doesn’t mean they’re good yet.

Parts of them are. The Bucs still have a good defense, and those parts of the Redskins offense that thrived on Sunday - the O-line, and Clinton Portis - have passed muster, IMHO.

Brunell and the passing game didn’t show us much on Sunday. Was this because of the Bucs defense, or are Brunell’s best days behind him? We’ll get a better idea when they play the Giants this Sunday.

The defense looked quite good. But the Bucs’ offense has never been all that great, and the Bucs’ O-line clearly wasn’t used to playing as a unit. It’s good to see sacks; it’s good to see Arrington finally in a role that exploits his talents. Antonio Pierce is quite a player. Let’s see how they play against a quality offense before we get excited. And like Ashtar, I’m not yet sold on the idea that Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs can cover a pair of blue-chip WRs.

  1. I’m even more negative on the Champ-for-Portis trade than Ashtar is. (Too bad Gibbs couldn’t have been lured back two years ago, so he could have had Stephen Davis and Champ Bailey without giving up anything at all!) Blue-chip RBs aren’t abundant, but there are a lot of guys out there who can get the job done. After Riggo retired, Gibbs had George Rogers, Tim Smith, Gerald Riggs, and Earnest Byner, among others, starting at RB.

But CBs that you can leave out on an island with the best receivers in the league…there are very few who can do that job. And Champ Bailey was one of those few. If I could undo that trade, I’d do so in a heartbeat.

19

I’d bet you almost any amount of money that every time he fired a coach, Snyder put in a call to Gibbs. If he’d been available two years ago, Spurrier would probably still be at Florida (or some other hapless team would’ve picked him up).

20

Get a life…It’s only football…