South Korea and North Korea had a surprise meeting. This is ground breaking. Who in a million years would have expected to see the two leaders embracing?
Sure, it’s probably staged. But this would have been unthinkable with Kim’s father.
I still think Kim is playing everybody. But, he’s sure beginning to seem sincere about N Korea rejoining the international community.
S Korea has a vested interest in making this work. It’s their country that would be destroyed in a war. N Korea isn’t developed in the same way.
“The highly anticipated meeting between Kim Jong Un and myself will take place in Singapore on June 12th. We will both try to make it a very special moment for World Peace!”
It is quite reasonable to assert that this is a statement of the US agreeing to such a meeting, and thus the US agreed to a meeting prior to preparation which would have demonstrated that NK was not serious about such a meeting.
I’m just reading Trump’s words. I’m not sure what words you’re going by, but it’s a factual assertion that Trump said that a meeting would take place (not “may” take place, but “will take place”). Is it your opinion that saying a meeting “will take place” is different than agreeing to a meeting?
If I’m missing something, can someone help me? What facts am I missing that show Trump’s words weren’t in fact agreeing to the meeting that he said “will take place”?
If someone claims to be a snake charmer, and not just any snake charmer, but the bestest, greatest snake charmer evAr, then when the snake bites him, you don’t blame the snake.
Usually it is supposed to be the other way around. You do all the preliminary stuff, laying the groundwork of who, what, when, where, and why using the “little people”, and only after that has all been hashed do you announce that the big meeting is coming up.
Trump agreed to a meeting, and then left the state department scrambling to try to make it happen.
No one is disputing that Trump agreed to the meeting. What is disputed, in the sense of being shown to be wrong, is the idea that Trump agreed to a meeting with no preparation, or with not enough preparation to be able to tell if the Northies were serious or not.
I mean, come on - you can’t seriously believe that any summit can be brought off without a huge amount of preparation, or that announcing a meeting means you have egg on your face when the other side behaves likes assholes and shows they aren’t serious.
Ok, Kim and Co. are assholes and can’t be trusted to behave like a civilized nation. We already knew that, and I don’t think it means they are particularly prestigious. Trump and the US want to negotiate - that’s what grown-ups do. Kim fucks around and plays games with the process - that’s not what grown-ups do. So the grown-up cancels the meeting. How does this hurt the prestige of the grown-ups?
Unlike Trump, am I right? No, Trump is not interested in negotiating. Trump is interested in making demands. Humor me, tell me the last time Trump “negotiated” on behalf of the USA.
Okay, so we agree that Trump agreed to the meeting. I’m saying that he agreed to this meeting before the hard work of thoughtful and careful analysis and study, which would have revealed that NK was not actually serious about a meeting, and it would have had a very high chance of collapsing, as demonstrated by the fact that the meeting did collapse. The reported facts of the timeline strongly suggest that Trump agreed to this meeting in a very impulsive manner, almost on a whim, before long and careful consultation with allies and with his advisors and the experts. And the subsequent sequence of events – NK acting like NK, and the US canceling the meeting – was entirely predictable if they had done their due diligence and the hard work of foreign policy research. And thus the US looks very dumb for having made a big decision (agreeing to this meeting) without actually doing this hard work and due diligence, which would have revealed the lack of seriousness that NK has with regards to reform. IMO.
In other words, a smart and thoughtful and careful administration would not have agreed to such a meeting unless and until they had very good reason to believe that NK was actually serious in its intention and desire for reform.
So what part of this series of events, and my analysis, do you think is incorrect?
Trump agreed to the meeting because he fancies himself as the greatest negotiator in the world and he was sure that it was his bluster and threats that brought them to the table.
Too damned stupid and narcissistic to see that he was just playing the same game.
No, he’s better than everyone, so this time they were playing his game! :rolleyes:
It’s a bit before my time, but I remember stories about the peace talks to end the Vietnam War; folks arguing on and on over every niggling detail, like the shape of the table. That’s not what happened this time. North Korea said “okay, see you at the talks next month.” Did they ever say they’d be at the meeting to plan the meeting? So this time, not squabbling over the details means North Korea isn’t serious?
If North Korea didn’t show up to the planning meeting, that leaves the U.S. free to plan the whole thing however they want. Give the U.S. two sides of a triangular table. Give Kim the shortest chair. Give the Master Dealmaker the perfect situation to make the bestest deal he can, or stack the odds so much that the North Koreans leave in disgust. Either way, Trump comes out looking good. But no, giving the U.S. anything they wanted was just too much of an insult to Trump, so he cancelled the summit. If anyone wasn’t serious about making this happen, it was him.
TLDR: Not sending a team to a planning meeting does not mean you aren’t serious. That’s the kind of opportunity a real negotiator would love.
Why not? What’s the downside in trying to negotiate, even if it doesn’t work? How does it hurt the prestige or position of the US to try to negotiate in good faith, and then have NK show that they aren’t going to do the same? How does that hurt the country? How does it hurt the world? How has our reputation suffered because we reached out in good faith?
Look, I get it - everything Trump does is bad. Jerk the knee first, rationalizations after.
Trying to negotiate is fine. But summits and meetings between leaders are far more than just negotiations – they’re symbols. Politics, pageantry, etc. Negotiate, negotiate, and negotiate… and if there’s good solid reason to believe that the other party is serious about reform and meeting in the middle on some vital issues, then a summit could be considered. But on a whim? That’s crazy. We don’t and shouldn’t hand out summits to hellhole dictators on impulse. It takes long due diligence, and a lot of hard work, to confirm that the other party is actually interested in reform and compromise.
Come on. Is it really not possible to reasonably criticize Trump for this? Would you not have criticized Obama if he had agreed to a summit with North Korea without actually doing the hard work of negotiation and research beforehand to see if NK is actually serious about compromise and reform? Do you believe that Trump’s team did this hard work, confirming good intentions from NK, before he agreed to the summit? And if so, what is your basis for this belief?
I don’t think it’s fair that you’re characterizing my criticism as knee-jerk. I think I’ve laid it out pretty reasonably, logically, and rationally, and you haven’t pointed out what part of my calculus is irrational, knee-jerk, or otherwise beyond the pale of reason.
As for how we’ve suffered – we showed that we make impulse decisions about summits without doing the hard work and due diligence of confirming that they’re warranted before hand. We look impulsive, amateurish, and careless. We look like we were played by NK by honoring Kim with all of Trump’s ridiculous praise.
The nightmare scenario in my mind is that Kim and Trump actually meet, and they reach some sort of “understanding.” But in the course of the weeks that follow, that “understanding” falls apart and Kim ends up embarrassing Trump. Enraged, Trump turns away from advisers who at least have a shred of interest in peace with North Korea, like Mattis and maybe Pompeo (not sure about him), and instead turns to John Bolton for influence. That would be a horror show.
Which, once again, brings us back to China’s warning that while they would remain neutral if North Korea started a war with others, they would NOT if anyone else started one. I don’t think our military would go along with those orders.
There isn’t going to be any summit. Trump cancelled it, thus denying NK the symbolism and pageantry.
Obama didn’t do any negotiation with NK, and NK developed nukes. I.e. not negotiating failed. Now Trump is trying to negotiate, and that also failed. Why is it terrible to try something and not have it work, and fine to not try something and also not have it work?
The fact that it was during the preparations for the summit that it became clear that NK wasn’t serious. The preparation that you said didn’t happen, and wasn’t enough to determine if NK was serious.
No, it’s perfectly justified, and you haven’t been able to come up with a single rational basis beyond “Trump bad”. You claimed there was no preparation for the summit. There was preparation. You claimed the preparation wasn’t adequate to determine if NK was serious. It was adequate and did determine that. You claimed NK would benefit from the pageantry and symbolism of a summit. There isn’t going to be a summit and so they won’t benefit.
So those are the parts of your rationalizations that are knee-jerk and irrational - all of them.
Okay, at this point I’ll try to explain it one more time, since you’re consistently mischaracterizing my argument. Trump agreed to the summit. After this agreement, his team actually starting doing some work and preparation, at which it was clear NK was not serious about the possibility for reform and compromise, and so they canceled. I’m saying that was the wrong order – the preparation should come before agreeing to the summit, not afterwards. Agreeing to the summit shouldn’t happen until the preparation occurs. Now Trump looks like a fool for saying “the summit is going to happen” and then it didn’t happen. I don’t know if Obama’s team actually did the hard work and preparation to try and see if NK was serious about compromise and reform (if they did, we likely wouldn’t know, since those happen behind the scenes), but if they did, they would have discovered NK wasn’t actually serious, and not announced a summit. Which they didn’t. Because that’s the proper and reasonable order – prepare first, then agree to a summit if the preparations reveal seriousness. Agreeing to a summit before doing the preparation is the wrong order, and makes Trump look careless and impulsive (which he is, by all appearances, right?).
Is that clear? And if it’s clear, do you disagree that it’s appropriate to do the preparation before agreeing to a summit rather than afterwards?
Also, Trump heaped praise on Kim again and again, which you’ve ignored. That was stupid and reasonable to criticize, right?
Congrats to Kim Jong Un on gaining the legitimacy and pageantry of this photo-op, along with the ceasing of US-South Korea military exercises, and repeated hyperbolic praise from the US President, without having to give up anything at all. Big win for a murderous communist dictator.