Interesting. Chris Davie is the exact type of voter I am talking about.
Trump has some serious vulnerabilities and I think Democrats have the edge in 2020 but it’s probably going to be very close because of the reckless lurch to the left that we are seeing based on the first couple of primary debates and the broader discussion.
Around 75% of the Democratic agenda is popular and the logical thing for an out-of-power party would be to focus on that and downplay the stuff that is unpopular. That is pretty much what Obama did.
Instead the Democrats seem to be determined to focus on unpopular positions: abolishing private health insurance, federally funded abortions, decriminalizing illegal entry, forced school busing, reparations.
Some of these have been explicitly adopted and all of them are being discussed. I don’t think the Democrats understand the world of hurt they will experience from Republican attack ads in 2020 on these issues especially if someone like Warren is the candidate.
I think the problem I see what a lot of the left activists is that they’re not being realistic. I get their anger - I’m pissed off myself. But the political system we inherited typically allows for incremental change. If the left wants to change the system, it probably won’t be through a swift push of a consensus unless there’s a national emergency, such as the Great Depression was in the 1930s.
The times when we’ve had major reforms that occurred swiftly are when there has been a consensus (meaning 60-65%) who understand the need for it. People on the left cite the New Deal a lot but what they don’t understand is that the New Deal wasn’t just popular; it was implemented because the country was in apparent danger. People were so enraged that there was a very real possibility of political violence and widespread instability. Fascism actually had followers. And Huey Long had much of the country flirting with the idea of a left wing brand of authoritarianism as well.
As many problems as we have, I don’t’ see that kind of situation right now. There’s a growing consensus that our healthcare system is a failure, but there’s no consensus on what exactly to do about it. There’s a growing consensus that there’s economic inequality, but there’s no consensus on what to do about it. So the best thing to do is to aim high for reforms but accept the best of what comes from negotiations. I shake my head when I see supposedly educated writers at the Intercept trash Biden for striking deals with a handful of republican senators for the express purpose of getting ACA done, getting the stimulus done, and trying to make sure that tax cuts didn’t expire for people who really needed it. They’re the same people who chastise Speaker Pelosi for ‘caving’ to Mitch McConnell and passing a weaker border funding bill when the reality is it’s McConnell who would win that fight and make the migrants who are already suffering suffer even more. What I’m seeing on the left is impulsiveness and irrationality, and it needs to stop. They’ll scare away the moderates – and lose.
I wouldn’t blame “the Democrats” so much as the media for giving the more sensational issues such prominence.
Who posed the questions yesterday whose answers are the tropes of today?
I voted Yes, for two reasons: the D’s can’t get out of their own way, and the economy is doing well (even if its foundations are shaky, the voters can’t tell and don’t care). Unless the economy tanks in the next 6 months, after which it will be too late to matter.
It will be tougher for 45 in some of the states he won last time, but unless the D’s can field a candidate who is stellar, I don’t think they have a chance. I think their best hope is to try to pick up some Senate seats, and not lose too many in the House.
Election model that was very accurate last fall sees 2020 the same way I do:
http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/
I think the Dems’ best bet is to hope that Joe Biden can get through the primary season with minimal damage. More than anyone, Biden’s the guy that voters can say “I remember what it was like just a few years ago, when he and Barack were in the WH. Things were pretty much as they are now but without the drama.”
I just don’t know if Biden has it in him to make it that far without losing the confidence of voters. He’s just not a great campaigner and he just looks lacking in energy.
Serious question: is Biden capable of accepting this feedback from his performance in the debate, and adjusting himself accordingly? Does he have consultants and coaches who are saying, “look Joe, you need to step up here, people thought you sounded old, tired, and weak…get it together, man, stand up straight with authoritative body language, look straight at the camera, focus on your words and speak them with conviction”, etc…is he capable of actually doing this? I suspect that he might be, to an extent, but the way he consistently tripped over his words in the debate and did not speak in an articulate and straightforward manner the way that Buttigieg did, suggests to me that he might just not have it in him.
I guess he has a chance of pulling through IF HE CAN ADJUST what needs to be adjusted, and absolutely kill the next debate and all of the subsequent ones. But if his next appearance is in any way similar to the last one, he’s dead in the water as far as I’m concerned.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/450825-biden-camp-denies-report-its-freaking-out-about-debate
Biden has a chance of pulling through because he has been a consensus favorite for the past several years, with people incessantly talking about how he would have won the race in 2016 had he only challenged Clinton. This is why I push back against Bernistas whenever they pull that lame “Bernie woulda beat Trump - the polls show it” crap. You don’t know shit until someone actually steps into the arena.
I’m not writing Biden off just yet. It’s one bad debate performance, and candidates can and do recover from them. What leaves doubts in my mind about Biden is the simple fact that he’s never won a race in a large and diverse state, and he’s never come close in two primaries two decades apart. And now he just seems like an older, less energetic, more confused version of the guy who ran twice before.
Here’s a wildcard: There are a lot of people who can’t stand Trump, but who are not hard-core progressives. If the Dems nominate someone like Bernie or Elizabeth Warren, there will be a big hole in the middle which could easily attract a center-right Republican to challenge Trump for the nomination.
And Mitt Romney is tanned, rested and so far his main role in the Senate seems to be as a rhetorical foil to Trump. Michael Bloomberg or some other center-left bigwig might start thinking about an independent hid.
An election between Trump and Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren leaves a pretty big hole in the middle of the electorate.
I’d vote for Romney in a heartbeat, but nobody is going to win the Republican primaries against an incumbent President. And Romney is too good a Republican to run as an independent and split the vote.
In an ideal world, Romney would be finishing his second term and Ryan preparing for his first.
Regards,
Shodan
I wouldn’t be so sure Romney doesn’t want to do his part to deny Trump a second term without actually advocating for a Democrat.
Somebody on twitter (I follow a couple of pretty shrewd political observers) made the point yesterday that we’re giving Trump way too much credit. The guy drew an inside straight in '16 and has spent the ensuing two years pissing off millions more who didn’t vote for him the first time. The country’s demographics continue to change and not to his benefit.
I admit that the guy winning in '16 spooked me and shook my confidence in the intelligence of the American voter. And we Dems have a bad tendency to pout a little and not participate if we don’t get exactly the candidate we want. But if we can just realize that all 75 Democratic candidates are far superior to the demented reality show host in the White House right now, we can blow him away.
I don’t believe this for a second. There is probably ONE thing and only ONE thing Trump excels at: Self Promotion. I mean, he’s been doing it successfully for decades.
Let’s not forget how many candidates, many of them seasoned, he picked off in 2016.
Under estimate him on this front, and he will crush you.
You’re gonna have to be a little more specific for me to understand what you’re trying to say here. E.g., what will the ability to self promote mean to voter turnout?
The same thing it did in 16. Belittle you opponents, make them look weak, come up with a childish nick name for them, while at the same time aggrandize yourself as the guy who doesn’t play by the rules and thumbs his nose at the establishment.
Only HE knows how to fix the system! And he’s quite good at getting certain parts of America to believe him.
So far, the only two candidates that I’m aware of that can effectively retort his nonsense with out stooping to his level are Harris and Buttigieg.
Yes, he surprised us with his ability to fast talk 63 million voters three years ago. He’s going to need more this time around. Do you think there are many who didn’t vote for him in '16 who have been won over by his salesmanship in the interim?
In the interest of fairness, I have read a couple of posts here and elsewhere from people who said something along these lines – that Trump’s ability to ram policies through that they favor has won them over to him. I think those numbers are dwarfed, however, by the newly eligible voters who increased their turnout by some ridiculously high percentage in the most recent midterms, and by those who declined to vote in '16 (because Hilary!) but now are horrorstruck at the shitshow they let in.
The ONLY way I see Trump winning is if the Dems run on a platform of free college, free healthcare where you don’t get to pick your doctor or insurance provider, reminiscing about the good old days of forced busing, focusing on the atrocities at the border (which they SHOULD do), only to keep calling them “concentration camps,” and keep bringing up reparations.
In other words, if the Dems lose, they really need to look in the mirror. Twitter activists should not be setting party platform.
This. 100%.
Not only do I think he’ll win, but I think the Dems (really? All 11 of you at the debate voted yes on healthcare for illegal immigrants?) are shooting themselves in the foot for years to come.