Do you think Trump will win in 2020?

Politics & Elections
321

I honestly cannot tell if you are simply confused or intentionally being dense.

AGAIN, the point is not what AOC says or said, but what the punditosphere and social media (following each other) set up as the popular narrative, how her win has been used to push a storyline. You never heard the narrative that her win meant that a new era had dawned, that the establishment politicians’ time was up? And the pushback against it?

Even here that was a drumbeat after her primary win.

That’s the background narrative pushed by the pundits ever since and that Pelosi and Duckworth were responding to. A narrative that the majority of those running embrace, no matter what their own ages. The premise is that the Democratic party has moved past the current established leadership, their time is up, it is the time for new Big Ideas of The Left and of the new faces.

No he did not NEED to respond how he did. He could have responded in a very weak manner that totally ignored the narrative that Cuomo’s question was predicated upon.

Cuomo’s question essentially was “Joe Biden, the party has moved past you and your ideas. Everyone else running is embracing these advanced progressive Big ideas and the which primary voters love. Isn’t it time’s up for your old ideas and old ways of doing things?”

Yes, he could have just reiterated the rationale for his policy positions. That’s it. But it would have exactly played into the “Biden is weak and does not know how to fight back” narrative.

He instead basically answered that 1) Don’t be so sure about what is and is not popular and where the party is at. That is what this election is about and whaddayaknow? I’m in the lead. 2) Big Progressive Ideas are not what wins general elections. AOC’s win is no evidence otherwise despite the media storyline about it. Center Left candidates like me win contestable general elections. I can get elected; those running farther Left, maybe not. 3) And those so-called advanced ideas? They don’t seem so advanced to me. What I want to do is better and I can actually deliver them.

Again, progressives won’t agree with that take, and they are not voting for him in the primary. But it is the right response to shore up support from those inclined to support him as a top or the top choice for their votes, who might be shaken by his lack of punching back with Harris. And it referenced AOC respectfully.

It was the right answer to give, even if did not NEED to give it.

322

Separately I find it entertaining that Biden is criticized for his weak and deferential response to Harris … and for being too harsh by saying the mildest criticism of the idea that the Democratic Party is now one of the Left’s Big Ideas … all the while Harris is praised for her ruthless efficiency.

It is entertaining to say the least.
As for Warren - I like her and I love that she has “a plan for that” for most everything. But not everything. Her answer to how she’ll get her plans passed was that others are just not willing to fight hard enough. Seriously. What is your plan for that? She might be electable but not likely with much coat tail. The odds of her having a Senate majority (with enough to offset Manchin) is low and even with a majority, of wrangling every other Dem not named Manchin to vote her way, is near nil. What is her plan for that? Fighting hard … looking at the dress laid out … and you all know that dress, the one you wear to weddings and funerals, repeating over and over again “I won’t lose this fight.” (I hope the allusion is known.) … are not plans. They are spirit and that is great. But what is her plan for that?

323

DSeid, I don’t get your dress allusion.

In the low-turnout primary, she got the votes of a tiny percentage of the district’s population, mostly from precincts where young left wing whites had recently moved to gentrified neighborhoods. The general election was completely meaningless, because there are just so few Republicans in that district. Go ahead and look up that election: you’ll find that her nominal Republican opponent was a nobody who doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page. In fact, the last time I checked, Google turns up no photos or really anything substantial about him.

Bottom line: neither Pelosi nor AOC should set the Democratic Party’s public agenda. That task should be reserved for a cabal of representatives and senators who have won general elections in states or districts where Trump garnered more than 45%.

Maybe. Or maybe he will take votes that would have gone, however reluctantly, to the Democratic nominee. As I noted in another thread, presidential elections are referendums on the incumbent, and it is not helpful to divide the anti-incumbent vote.

Amash would certainly have helped Hillary in 2016, but that ship has sailed.

324

Warren’s “The Dress Story” is part of her standard stump speech and never fails to get a strong emotional connection with the crowd. You can hear it here.

It’s a moving story from her childhood that establishes her childhood in a working class family that went through very tough times and how she learned, from watching her mother, how to be the kind of person she is, how you reach in and find what you need to find when you are scared and “you pull it out.” It emotionally connects every time. It’s a very effective story that does a great job delivering several messages about her that are key to her image and that segues into campaign themes without missing a beat.

325

Lol. I’m talking about optics, man. You act like you’re saying stuff no one knows. I understand perfectly well how she ended up winning her seat. It is still notable to she campaigned effectively enough to unseat the incumbent. Yes, her district was safe but it’s kind of rude to ignore that when talking about another colleague’s election win. She went through the same process everyone else did in 2018 and was victorious. This shouldn’t be minimized.

Biden feels the need to lessen AOC’s shine to lift up moderates. That’s the takeaway to me and others that wish the Dems would grow some spine. It’s an unimpressive move that makes him look like a defensive old man, not as the coalition leader we need. If Dems are overwhelmingly not in favor of progressive ideas, you’d think he would be netting a lot more than 30% right now. He clearly sees this race as one with him against everyone else. Well, he’s going to lose if that’s the story he’s sticking to.

326

Man, you’re moving the goalposts halfway to midfield. Let’s roll tape, shall we?

Now your story is that the argument isn’t about winning national elections, or elections in contestable districts. Now your story is that it’s about Congressional leadership, and about the Big New Ideas of the Left triumphing over more centrist ideas.

Whatever, dude. I don’t find this this mutating bullshit amusing anymore.

327

I admit that my commentary of Warren might be over-broad, but my concern is that she is too ideologically to the left, and too committed to that ideology to pivot toward the center. If I am interpreting her campaign’s signals correctly so far (and I might not be, as it’s still early and there are too many damn candidates to keep up with), it seems that her approach is to make the strongest grass roots pitch possible and hope that she can change hearts and minds among more impressionable skeptics. In the end, I think people don’t vote for change that frightens them. In fact, people don’t tend to vote for change that challenges their instincts and pushes them out of their comfort zone unless they really feel a sense of urgency - like in 1932 or like in 2008, for example (2008 maybe being an even better example). That’s also why I think it’s going to be a lot harder to beat an incumbent with a strong economy, even if that incumbent has historically low polling numbers.

328

You misunderstand. I’m not criticizing him for being too harsh. I’m criticizing him for looking weak, out of touch, and reactionary to a junior Congressman who is not his opponent in this race.

And no one accused him of being deferential to Harris. Weak, floundering, tone deaf, defensive, out maneuvered,and unprepared, yes.

329

Well we can agree that the bullshit here is not so amusing, even though you do make me laugh.

The point is winning contestable elections: districts, states, nation. You win the last by winning the two before it. Winning NY by a bigger margin don’t do much. Winning PA by a hair does.

But yeah done here.

330

Pelosi has been in several districts, including one which is now staunchly Republican and one which voted for Arnold.

331

I voted no - but that’s under the assumption that Biden wins the Democratic nomination. If it ends up being a progressive, my gut says he gets re-elected, even though you would think the college students (along with high school 18-year-olds and their parents who would worry about tuition costs) would come out in force for the Democrat.

Keep in mind that I would have also voted “no” had this been asked at 9 PM Eastern on election day in 2016…

332

While I voted yes initially, I think the recent racist tirades were a tremendous boon to the Democrats. As a Republican you can be a racist, no problem, it is likely actually helpful as while not all Republicans are racists, the vast majority of racists are Republicans. However, you have to be careful not to be overt. This was probably one of the most overt displays of racism by Trump, and it is very likely to hurt him.

333

Like “Shithole countries” wasn’t overt?

Locking people up in cages wasn’t overt?

“They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime” wasn’t overt?

The attacks on a dead Muslim’s soldiers parents weren’t overt?

The Muslim ban wasn’t overt?

Dude, there has been absolutely nothing subtle about this president’s racism - nothing at all. He’s been racist as fuck from day one. He will survive this. Wait a few weeks when the Democrats get bogged down over the particulars of legislating in the House and the progressives want to push for something over the top because “racism,” even if it alienates moderate whites.

Donald Trump is the most “lost cause” president since Woodrow Wilson.

334

Won’t even move the needle. I would not be surprised if the RCP poll aggregate for Trump approval is up 2% next week.

Republican leadership has told us that these four women are communists and hate America.
Trump has told us that these women are the REAL racists for opposing him.

And that, my friend, is that.

335

They’ll be pretty sure that someone else will vote the Democrat in, and they’ll be doing something else important, like going shopping that day. So it will be Trump. And they’ll wonder what the heck happened. “Why didn’t those other people go out and vote? I couldn’t, I needed to get some shoes.”

336

In my view, this isn’t about polling (I agree that this will not be a blip on the polls), this is about getting people to vote. This was a pretty direct attack on the American-ness of virtually every minority in the county. Utilized properly during the campaign this could get them to come out and vote for the Democrats.

337

Sure. The election is only 475 days away, after all, and who among us doesn’t still remember vividly the breaking news events of March 2018?

338

Pretty much this.

This is probably another Khan or Charlottesville moment for Trump - his poll numbers will go down, and I’m sure the GOP is wondering just how many more times they can ride this roller coaster before the wheels come off, but they’re here 4 years after his infamous escalator ride and aren’t showing any signs of jumping off the Trump train.

A lot of people will forget this outrage, just like they’ve forgotten the previous thousand or so. People who are predisposed not to like Trump will continue to revile him; those who fly the Confederate flag will keep supporting him. People in between will just hope they have a job and a future and will probably vote, or not, on that basis.

But what will change is that the Democratic party is going to be pushed into reactionary mode. There’s absolutely nothing wrong and everything right with censuring a racist president - that’s not the concern. The concern is what happens after the censure? How do Democrats deal with political differences of opinion over whether to give in to the Senate on a funding bill or hold out and possibly shut down the government as a way to protest? I’m not predicting that this specifically will happen, but I’m using that as an example. My fear is that the Democrats in the House become so pissed that they protest more than they govern, and that would be a monumental boon to Trump.

I do think there’s at least some strategy on Trump’s part in this sense. He wins by taking the fight to the sewer. I’ll be pleasantly surprised and relieved if they can avoid that.

339

DJT described his strategy/way of life on Twitter, Nov 11, 2012. And he has stuck to it:

I fear the Dems will chew themselves up with infighting and hand thump the 2020 election. :frowning:

340

Just wondering…if a Republican was going to challenge Trump as a 3rd party candidate, do you think we would’ve heard about it by now?

I’m just thinking, if I was Mitt Romney, given how rich I am, and given how much shit I’ve taken from Trump, running as a 3rd party candidate and siphoning off moderate Republican votes would be the perfect revenge. I wouldn’t win, but then neither would Trump. I honestly couldn’t think of a good reason why I wouldn’t do it.