Looks like the only way Trump can win reelection in 2020 is if there is some unforeseen big October surprise, or somehow the economy not only does not crater but in fact becomes even hotter than before. And even then that might not do the trick. Or somehow the Democrats would have to end up nominating a truly abysmal candidate.
Looks like a parlay wager. Trump cannot win if only one or two fortuitous things go his way. It’s going to have to be a string of somewhat-improbable events strung together to happen, probably at least three. Hot economy, really bad Democratic candidate, and some unforeseen surprise, such as a big and sudden crime wave by migrants.
The best thing he can hope for is a band of Mexican Muslims bringing down the Statue of Liberty. The economy is strong, but people aren’t feeling like they’re doing better. The tax cuts have not helped those in middle America. Health care continues to be an albatross as Republicans simply can’t agree on a replacement for the ACA. If he runs against Biden, then Michigan and Pennsylvania are uphill climbs for him. He is not running against Hillary, and the Democratic base is engaged.
The other thing that might help Donald would be if Sanders decides to fight for the nomination long after he loses it, like he did in 2016. Elections depend on Democratic turnout, and it is going to be HUGE in 2020. We saw what a difference that made in 2018.
The Russians do an even better job of hacking the election. This time, actually changing the vote totals in various counties’ Election Department computers.
As long as there’s not a war or a major economic crash in the next two years, all he needs to do is say “we’ve had a great four years and we’re going to have ANOTHER GREAT FOUR YEARS!” If he campaigns the way he did in 2016, the Democratic candidate is going to have to fight very hard to scrape by. I don’t care what anyone says about how supposedly bad Trump’s chances are; everyone said the same thing in 2016.
What makes you think that?
At the time of the 2016 election, Trump’s favorability rating was 41.8%. Currently, Trump’s approval rating is 41.7%. So I don’t see why Trump would do any worse now than in 2016.
There was an Onion headline back in summer 2016, something like, “Trump, Clinton fortunate to run against only candidate they can beat.”
I think about that a lot, and it gives me hope.
I’m convinced Trump won because of Jill Stein. The Russians were all over the Green Party in 2016. The Green Party Convention was televised only on Russia Today.
Had Jill Stein’s votes gone to Hillary Clinton 75% to 25% she would have won the electoral college.
Those who cast votes for Green or other in 2016 who hate Donald Trump (pretty much all of them, I suspect) will not make the same mistake in 2020.
Don’t vote Green in 2020! Don’t be Putin’s Puppet!
Rothschild’s Predictwise shows the White House at D 52% R 48%. Betfair is slightly more optimistic with R’s only 47%. Both sites show Trump as big favorite to be the R nominee. Easy money for those certain Trump re-election is unlikely.
A distant 2nd-most likely to be next President is Sanders, followed by Harris, Biden, and then … Buttigieg!
I get it. You think because today was 4/20 we would buy into this.
Nice try.
I was reading an article the other day (I think it was in the Washington Post, but I may be mistaken) which quoted an insider with some knowledge of Trump’s plans for the next election. The insider was quoted as saying that their strategy is to keep close tabs on all of the Democratic candidates, and look for slip-ups, misstatements, or phrases that can be taken out of context (e.g., “basket of deplorables,” “you didn’t build that”), and use that to absolutely hammer on the eventual Democratic nominee.
The insider said (paraphrasing), “Trump’s plan is to stay at 45% approval, and make the other guy completely radioactive.”
Found it –it’s an Axios article, and it’s actually talking about the RNC’s plans for the campaign.
Isn’t it what they always do ?
I think he’ll probably be re-elected. I think once again, the Bernie base will have a temper tantrum when he doesn’t get the nomination and vote for Kremlin supported third party candidates.
He flipped IA, MI, PA, and WI compared to 2012. You can say he flipped FL, but I think FL is on a swing back to red anyway.
He can lose IA, WI and PA, hold onto MI and win.
Or lose PA and MI, hold onto IA and WI and win.
He will do worse because he won’t be running against Hillary. Nobody is going to vote for him because of “duhhhhhh… something something emails” People are on to him now. Democrats are energized.
As long as the economy stays about where it is for another 15 months, no major foreign Benghazi level snafu, no Katrina style FEMA failure (Puerto Rico will be in the mirror and it is “not in the US” anyway*) Trump has a good chance. If the Dems keep nit picking the Muellor report that was supposed to be the final answer, he’ll be able to play the pity me card. I expect some type of event at the southern border to define the next 18 months. Either migrants at the border or in custody riot or storm the border requiring a military assisted response or more likely some type of epidemic from unhealthy living standards. Then it will depend on his response as to whether it helps him secure the independants or turns them away.
*yes I know it is American territory and the population are US citizens. Common perception though is it is not really part of the US.
How about a My Lai type massacre by citizen militias?
Yup, the fact that the GOP did so well there in 2018 pretty much kills FL as a battleground state. Trump’s realistic chance at winning is the same as last time, hope to squeak by the electoral college by doing the same thing hes been doing.
What are you talking about? Trump can win easily, by changing the votes. Election fraud is a thing.
Edit: OK, maybe it’s not that easy if even Republicans are sick of him. But it’s possible.
That’s just wishful thinking. Hillary didn’t lose because she made minor mistakes. She lost because Republicans have a formidable propaganda machine. Whoever is the Democratic candidate, the Republicans will find something just as minor as Hillary’s e-mails and blow it up as a major scandal. Or just make something up and keep repeating it till it sticks - remember “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth”?