All in all, I think he is being underestimated. Again. I would not bet against him, at least not at this point.
That his favorability reading is the same as it was, is not as important as the fact that those who hate him, hate him enough to vote. Those that merely favor him, ‘well, it’s raining out and I’m tired’.
He can win again by doing the same things again that he did before. Past outcomes do not guarantee future results, but they’re the best indicator we have. If we want this election to be different, then we need to make it be different.
That claim does not seem consistent with the outcome of the 2016 election.
Are you serious? You sound like Rachel Maddow 2 weeks out from the election in 2016.
I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college.
Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That’s why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them.
Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I’m not convinced there are any “centrists” any more.
Bernie Warren wants to do that too.
Heh. I didn’t even realize I did that.
Socialism and open borders. What can go wrong? It’s funny reading all the dishonest politicians and folks deny what was clearly obvious.
Effectively name-calling. An old ‘argument’.
Anyone paying attention in the last thirty or so years, knows that “socialism” is not what is being promoted by the Democrats but, rather, social democracy.
See the difference.
ETA: And ‘open borders’. Seriously?
The Republicans realize they can win if only they can keep enough Democrats from voting. And they are working very hard on that. Throw out registrations, restrict weekend voting, close polling stations, you name it. A friend of mine lived in Ohio in 2000 and they took many voting booths out of Cleveland to relocate in the sticks. Some Clevelanders waiting four hours to vote. Many gave up. Turning Ohio would have cost Bush the election.
Hm. Well, the economy is actually doing fairly well. The situation in North Korea seems to have worked out in his favor as well…so far. As has his trade war with China. So far. The Chinese seem to be dumping massive amounts of cash into their own economy to prop it up in the hopes, seemingly, that the US will make some concessions and stop the trade war. The Iran thing hasn’t bit him on the ass yet either. The immigration thing also seems to have calmed down and he’s lowered expectations on his ridiculous wall…for now.
Um…those are the only even vaguely positive things I can think of, and I think I’m reaching on several of those. Any of those could explode in his face and tank the economy or send the stock market into a downward spiral. Then there is the Russia findings, which we still don’t know the extent of the damage that will or could potentially do to him.
On the other side, we have the Democrats, always the party ready, even eager to snatch defeat from the slavering jaws of victory. Who will they put up against him? A young, fire eyed progressive or…Bernie (or someone equally old and creaky, as well as cantankerous and crotchety)? Or will they go for a Democratic moderate? And what will the Dems DO between now and then wrt Congress? What sorts of things will they propose? Trump, for all his faults, actually has tried (or seemed to wrt his voters and base) to do the things he campaigned on. They are almost all stupid things, all are misguided, but he’s tried to do them…and I think both his base and Republicans in general want many of those (stupid, populist) things. He’s their guy. The real question is, can the Dems hang together for this crucial election, can they put their civil war aside to put Trump out of our collective misery, or will they split the ticket and allow him to win, snatching defeat once again from the jaws of victory? I don’t think this election is a lock up, nor do I think the Dems should treat it that way. They SHOULD treat it like what it is…an extremely crucial election they MUST win. At all costs.
Third party candidate sucks votes from the democrats
Democrats have a contentious primary and lots of democrats stay home or vote third party.
Russians get better at election hacking.
Democratic nominee is somehow more toxic to independents than Trump.
A brokered Democratic convention is Trump’s strongest route to a win. It’s not as unlikely as normal when the media use the hypothetical for filler.
DNC rules require a majority of delegates, not a plurality, to win the nomination. The field is huge. Delegates are also far more front loaded than we are used to seeing. There’s still some scheduling to be locked down but we’re looking at 64% of all delegates being selected by March 17th. IIRC it’s 36% already scheduled for on or before Super Tuesday, March 3rd, with another ten percent possible on that day. Early voting in Democratically controlled states means many people will be voting in Super Tuesday states before the field has finished it’s typical February winnowing. Proportional allocation rules mean that even the big winner on Super Tuesday might be way off the pace to secure a majority of delegates. Super delegates can’t tip the scale for the plurality candidate anymore; they no longer get to vote on the first ballot. We could genuinely be looking at a contested convention. This cycle is not like previous cycles where a contested convention is just a filler hypothetical for the media. Things really did change.
The 15% threshold may prevent that ugliness. The DNC’s rules are relatively proportional in small fields but the threshold rule can skew that pretty significantly. It comes with a potential downside if it is producing significantly less than proportional results. Essentially the rules ignore the votes of those who selected candidates who wind up below threshold. Think pissed off voters blaming the DNC for disenfranchisement and holding it against the nominee. It’s probably less ugly than a contested convention, though. It might not even be noticed if the results aren’t too far off proportional. We won’t be able to miss a contested convention.
I don’t see how Trump can make anyone comparatively radioactive, but the trick is to make the opponent look defensive and weak. The psychology of choosing between an incumbent and a challenger makes the choice in 2020 different than 2016, when both candidates were challengers.
Voters may say “Yeah, Trump is a douchebag - can’t stand the guy myself. But I’m getting a steady paycheck and pay increases, and that wasn’t happening a few years ago. I don’t wanna just reverse everything because Trump’s a d-bag.”
One thing Trump had better stay away from, though, is Obamacare. If voters lose their coverage from Obamacare, it would be a potential nightmare even if the economy is still growing. Much worse if it’s not. Healthcare is clearly a winning issue for the democrats.
Really, dude, we’ve been over this. The vast majority of Bernie’s voters supported Clinton in the general election, full stop. Stop spreading the Kremlin’s lies for them.
Which Democratic candidates have called for open borders or abolishing ICE? Oh, right, none of them!
Anyway: I don’t like Trump’s chances and may actually consider betting real money if I can get even odds. The economy can’t get much better and will likely get worse, he’s not going to stop saying or doing stupid shit, he now faces the danger of Congressional investigations into said stupid shit, and he can’t really hope for a weaker opponent than he had last time. So his best case scenario is that he can repeat his last performance and keep it close; IOW, hope that none of the large number of things that could go wrong for him do go wrong, and then that he hits the Electoral College inside straight again. It’s, terrifyingly, not impossible that he could get re-elected, but I think his chances are significantly less than 50%.
Of course, that doesn’t take into account the possibility of vote fraud, which is a very real menace, but there’s no practical way to predict in advance how significant a factor it is likely to be.
What happens if no one gets over 15%? Are the delegates then uncommitted? How about if only one gets over that level? Do they get them all? These are not hypothetical questions. It’s quite possible either or both will happen.