Yeah that is the part I specifically see which seems pretty clear to me, albeit very unconvincing: ignore policy.
Policy does matter even if for some of these voters the policy that was sold was a crock at best. Resentment certainly sold which it can sell best when there is no convincing believable attractive other policy message being offered.
The fact that his approval has stayed as low as it is, as consistently as it has, despite an economy that continues to do well, is significant to me. And the reality is that no one is yet messaging those failures of his because they are always so distracted by the newest shiny coin of his latest outrageous disgusting crap.
That NPR piece really was good. No surprise: I listen to the NPR politics podcast every week and Dominico Montenaro is always awesome. He’s like their Nate (Silver/Cohn).
I do still take comfort from the 53% who say they will definitely vote against Trump. But the fact that his approval rating is higher than ever after the racist tweets is appalling. I mean, I am appalled daily by Trump—but this episode, and his not taking even a slight temporary hit in the polls, is deeply, deeply disturbing. It does make me question how much some people can be reached. I had assumed he had about 30 to 35% of the population who were hopeless, but I thought there was a soft number, maybe 10%, beyond that. Now I am not so sure.
The biggest takeaways for Democrats are:
—Democrats and their agenda are not especially well liked. The best thing they have going for them is how awful Trump is. That is concerning for the future if the GOP goes back to dogwhistles.
—The Bernie/Warren single-payer approach is a bigtime loser.
You and I rarely agree about Democratic strategery, but I am with you on this. However, that also means keeping it simple and not offering dramatic change* and big government programs. Not yet, anyway. Wait until Trump is gone.
There’s no danger in calling Trump a racist; there is danger in calling some of Trump’s voters racist, or in suggesting that people in the same party might be acting as apologists for racist because they don’t appear to be progressive enough.
Venezuela and the US are nothing alike, but Venezuela’s an example of how an idiotic, incompetent demagogue can remain in power despite being tremendously polarizing and unpopular with a majority of the country’s voters. They simply divide the opposition, which becomes fractured over policies and over degrees of resistance and political tactics. It’s frighteningly easy to do.
Well, yeah. I mean after mueller said that yes, trump committed Obstruction, Fox came out with “Mueller sez ‘No obstruction’” and trump tweeted he was vindicated.
MAGA people dont hear the truth.
Which is why Impeachment wont do anything- how many mAGA people do you think will watch C-Span?
*An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than Trump or Hillary Clinton. The two biggest third-party vote getters were Libertarian Gary Johnson (almost 4.5 million votes) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (1.5 million voters). But others received almost another 1.9 million votes, as well.
Libertarians and Greens may try to convince you that this reflects growing support for their parties. It doesn’t.
Their strong showing was due to the unpopularity of the two major party nominees…An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than Trump or Hillary Clinton. The two biggest third-party vote getters were Libertarian Gary Johnson (almost 4.5 million votes) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (1.5 million voters). But others received almost another 1.9 million votes, as well.
[Election assistance agency pleads for more money ahead of 2020]
Libertarians and Greens may try to convince you that this reflects growing support for their parties. It doesn’t.
Their strong showing was due to the unpopularity of the two major party nominees.*"
So if the Libertarians and Greens have learned their lesson about trump, this next elections should be a dem win.
Why is that “astounding”? Ross Perot got 19 million votes in 1992 and 8 million in 1996. John Anderson’s independent bid in 1980 got 5.7 million votes, and the Libertarians received nearly a million in that same election. Ralph Nader got more votes as a Green Party candidate in 2000 than Jill Stein got in 2016.
The bigger problem for both Democrats and Republicans is voters simply not voting at all.
Last fall’s election was, I believe, the highest turnout in a midterm in 100 years. Political scientists are predicting the biggest presidential turnout in 2020 since the 19th century (which we shouldn’t really count anyway since the franchise was so much more restricted). So I don’t think that’s a significant problem this time.
This poll is basically tied — interesting. Being from Wisconsin, I should cast the deciding vote. But I honestly have no idea which way to go on this, and probably won’t vote at all. Like I said, Wisconsin.
Honestly, if Hillary ran again (and I hope she wont) she’d win. No Comey letter, better care in key states, and the electorate has likely learned a little.
But I honestly have no idea which way to go on this, and probably won’t vote at all. Like I said, Wisconsin.