Do you think Trump will win in 2020?

Politics & Elections
521

There’s a pair of a Democratic and Republican political consultants here in St. Louis (Hancock and Kelly) who have some sort of real-life friendship, and appear as a team on a couple of local talk shows. The Republican (Hancock) has been a pretty consistent Trump supporter, but today he said nothing positive about the President.

The whole program stretched over two hours (Hour One) (Hour Two) and Hancock sprinkled his criticisms at different times, but if you cut everything else out, it’s pretty damning from a Missouri Republican. Among Hancock’s points –

Trump is running a very narrow re-election campaign that might work for him, but could spell doom for Republicans down the ticket.

Looking at the future, California, which used to be Republican leaning, is now solidly blue, at least in national elections. Texas is headed that way, with formerly safely Republican Congressional districts now being in play. The only black Republican in the House, Will Hurd, from a district in west Texas, announced Thursday he won’t run for re-election. Michael Conaway, whose district includes Midland, Odessa, and San Angelo, announced on Wednesday he won’t run. Pete Olson, from the southwest suburbs of Houston, announced last month he won’t run, either.

Evangelicals won’t criticize Trump because they’re afraid their way of life is slipping away, and the Supreme Court is their last hope. But they aren’t “living their faith” by not criticizing his statements.

522

Hey, anyone have any idea whether Trump has been able to squeak any judicial nominees past that pesky Senate? :rolleyes: That is the gift that keeps on giving, my friends. I hope all the dumbfucks who sat the last 2 elections out or cast “symbolic” votes appreciate that.

523

So, I’m going to say something stupid, something crazy, something that you’ll want to bookmark and throw back at me in 15, 17 months or so as I’m possibly wrong, and can’t be proven even if I’m correct.

But still going to say it anyway.

I think yesterday, Monday, August 5th 2019, is the day America decided “we can’t re-elect this chump.”

I heard it at home: “Toledo?” I heard it at work: “how’s the Dow?” I heard it on the radio: “stop blaming video games”. I read it in the paper: “China ag restrictions to hit TX hard”. I hear it while shopping: “I’m nervous.”

All this was yesterday. None of it the SDMB. None of it Twitter. Out of people’s mouths.

And then, on the feed, there is this where the adults are coming out saying the future’s so dark we gotta take our shades off:

It’s Larry Summer, former Treasury Sec, saying:

We may well be at the most dangerous financial moment since the 2009 Financial Crisis with current developments between the US and China.

And then Fitch puts a very bearish signal on oil prices: Oil Price Forecast Majorly Revised at Fitch | Rigzone

There’s a dawning understanding that the Brexit Bill is coming due soon and nobody knows how it’s going to get paid: Germany will plunge into recession if UK leaves the EU without a deal, business leaders warn

Oh, China devalued its currency, leaving Munchkin to call them a currency manipulator.

https://twitter.com/DTR_Markets/status/1158500629133664256?s=19
In earlier days this would have been a serious accusation with tons of paperwork being filed, nowadays his aides are likely having to scramble because of this bombshell. Or not, because it doesn’t matter because almost everyone in this admin is Michael Scott. But I keep hearing the same drumbeat… Recession2020… recession2020… recession2020(or21!)… and we have Donald Trump still President.

And… yesterday, I think… America gave up on this guy. Oh, he might still win - the field is uneven and the game is being cooked - but it won’t be a popular victory in any sense of the word.

524

I think we probably crossed that Rubicon a while ago, but I agree that it may have accelerated. It will be interesting to see the polls later this week. Although the counterpoint is that I was disappointed to see his numbers tick up slightly after his racist tweets. Still, the economy and particularly China is a big deal, and mass shooting is different from just offensive tweeting.

525

I know, I mean the guy hasn’t been above 50% since early, early 2017 (1 week? 2?), so it’s been hard to see him winning a majority of the vote for a while now. So now my post sounds even more stupid. Thanks! :smiley:

Joking aside, this morning a local sports talk show host who is 50/50 repub/dem was mocking Trump’s performance. “Toledo” didn’t play well, none of this is playing well, and what I’m seeing is that those people who were predisposed to give Trump the benefit of a doubt “because he’s the President and we should support him” or “God, I hoped he grows into the job*.” … Trump is beginning to lose those people in droves as the loud incompetence is making them tired and worried. They don’t need this shit and they are beginning to realize it.

*A lot of professional types fall into this category as I hear this complaint more frequently as well. The oil industry report is an indication of this shift, you will see more as additional recession calls come in, all of them mentioning Trump’s tariffs.

526

This is huge IMO:

527

Thanks, Slacker. I like the looks of that.

The poll here is now tied up, 129-129.

528

YW!

529

I have suspected for a while that Trump’s polling will continue to be weak. The only way he wins is by dampening the enthusiasm of Democrats, which is another potential argument against Biden’s candidacy but I’ll withhold judgment for now. But this is one reason why I think Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris might start seeing a surge in the months ahead.

530

Anyone hearJoe Biden take down Trump this afternoon?

Sleepy Joe’s awake now.

531

Wow, great speech.

532

Oh, there will be a recession in 2020. I’d be shocked if there wasn’t one.

And guess who will get the blame from the Republicans and their propaganda arm Fox News?

The incoming Democratic president. Guaranteed.

533

I have heard around the water cooler that the GOP doesn’t really want to win in 2020 since the effects of the trade wars will be felt by then and Republicans want to blame shift it pretty hard.

534

Somehow only one of these tweets is satire:

What a time to be alive.

535

I dont get the 2nd one. :confused:

536

Fantastic clip – more of this, please, Joe.

537

Uhhh…because you aren’t familiar with their history, or what? :confused:

538

So a bunch of people… all over the country … are upset that it can be proven that… (flips through notes)… ahh, yes, they’re upset it can be proven that Texans support the current Republican President with money.

I mean… there’s a lot to unpack here when you think about it, but still… being ashamed that you’re known to be a Texan donating to Trump cannot, in any stretch, be considered a positive indicator for his campaign. Wonder what Brad Parscale makes of all this fuss? :slight_smile:

539

What are you referring to?

540

Lol, wut? You don’t know the shitstorm that Castro set off last night when he tweeted this?

It’s a list of people here in San Antonio who have donated the maximum to Trump, all accessible via the FEC website, and the Fascists just lost their shit: