He’s bumbling and stumbling through words, and that trip to the hospital a few weeks ago was not what it was claimed to be. There is no chance anyone with an ounce of power in his world will allow that man to get on a debate stage.
And when he doesn’t, he will claim it is the Democrats fault that he won’t debate and 40% of the population will buy it.
I don’t see any way that Trump avoids all debates. That would be unprecedented. But what he can be guaranteed to do is to whine about the moderators, the time and place, the news organization running it, etc. He’ll claim that the deck is stacked against him. But ultimately, he’ll debate. For one thing, it’s far too risky to refuse and risk being tarred as afraid to debate his own record.
Also, Trump was very effective in the debates. That’s where he destroyed his Republican challengers. And he did fine against Hillary - polls show that she won every debate, but only by a few percentage points. He wasn’t blown out or anything, And Pence beat Biden in their debates, so Trump probably feels pretty good about debating Biden. He’ll just call him ‘Crooked Joe’ or something, and bring up Hunter Biden every time he doesn’t have an answer to Biden’s challenges.
And if he loses a debate, he’ll simply declare that it was rigged, biased against him, and when you factor that in he won bigly. Then he’ll go around repeating that he crushed the opposition.
Finally, I don’t think the performer in Trump would avoid the debates. He sees television as an advantage, and he’s a narcissist. Two hours in front of the cameras? He would 't miss it.
It’s endlessly hilarious to me that nobody remembers who Hillary’s running mate was. Horrible choice. The next nominee needs to not make the same mistake, and pick someone who is a strategic asset.
Oops! I meant Pence beat… Kane. You know, Batman’s rival. Couldn’t debate worth a damn.
I’d agree except that it appears that Trump’s handlers have some way of medicating him so that he can get through his rallies. He gets through them by means of word salad and slurring and other alarming symptoms, but he does get through. He doesn’t fall over. It could be Trump treating himself with the widely-speculated-about Adderall, or it could be some other treatment.
Of course Trump’s own enthusiasm for his rallies could be part of his ability to get through. But he’d probably relish the chance to bully whoever the Dem candidate is (at a debate), so the enthusiasm would aid him there, too.
Trump is close to signing two trade agreements – I know the agreement with China is more like a phase one, but it’ll be warmly received by markets nevertheless. He is headed to an impeachment that will unify his base and will ultimately result in an acquittal, and he’s already survived two major political scandals. The Democratic field is not really that strong at all. The polls might suggest that Trump is weak, but I think it’s his race to lose, and I think the only way he loses it, is if the economy really tanks hard.
Dems appear to be hopelessly pessimistic about next November but this may become a very simple matter. Hilary may have cost herself the election with her “deplorables” comment but how is the majority of the nation’s electorate going to react to being called “human scum” by the incumbent president? There may be a good reason that Republican congresspersons are “retiring” at record rates rather than face an aroused electorate sick of Trump’s constant negative characterizations of their honestly held beliefs for making the country better.
Why is it that we grant this awful man so much power in our minds?
Dems appear to be hopelessly pessimistic about next November but this may become a very simple matter. Hilary may have cost herself the election with her “deplorables” comment but how is the majority of the nation’s electorate going to react to being called “human scum” by the incumbent president? There may be a good reason that Republican congresspersons are “retiring” at record rates rather than face an aroused electorate sick of Trump’s constant negative characterizations of their honestly held beliefs for making the country better.
Why is it that we grant this awful man so much power in our minds?
He’s already setting the stage to not debate. I would bet a lot of money that he will not debate.
*
"President Trump is discussing with his advisers the possibility of sitting out the general election debates in 2020 because of his misgivings about the commission that oversees them, according to two people familiar with the discussions.
Mr. Trump has told advisers that he does not trust the Commission on Presidential Debates, the nonprofit entity that sponsors the debates, the two people said."*
I won’t be surprised if he talks openly about not debating, but changes his tune once Biden (or the nominee) calls him a chickenshit for ducking him, at which point Trump agrees to one debate that turns into a chimpanzee shit slinging TV show. If Trump agrees to a debate, he won’t “debate”; he’ll do what he did during the GOP primaries (and to an extent during the Clinton debates): he’ll stalk his opponent, insult him/her, use vulgarity, and make threats.
I think Trump may be just as likely at this point to be felled by a heart attack or stroke than a Democratic opponent.
I know I’m responding to an old post, but I think that Thelma’s post is relevant, especially when you consider that Trump may have some momentum if he can get the trade agreements signed. Even though the China agreement may still leave a lot of concerns unresolved, the worst of it just might be over for the farmers, steel producers, and manufacturers - and those are the guys and gals who helped Trump get elected in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump is behind in the Blue Wall states, and he knows it, which is why he will go on the offensive.
I think this thread needs to be rebooted every few months.
The Brexit referendum was, for me, a harbinger of the Trump election in 2016.
Now the UK has re-elected the Tories despite Boris Johnson, despite three years of poor government, despite not achieving their one objective, despite that one objective itself, which is a terrible idea with increasing media coverage of just how bad. That the Labour leader was reviled except by a hard core faction at the centre didn’t help.
So I’m thinking House impeachment, no senate conviction, and Trump wins. The lack of a strong and unified Democratic opposition will be a factor. I think Biden, Warren, and especially Sanders are susceptible to the Corbyn trap. (I’m probably voting Warren in any case, though.)
I am not optimistic.
Studied some recent state by state polling and I am mystified. Trump is going to win again. And whatever comes after that, this country will deserve it. This situation is unbelievable.
Trump easily wins the 2020 election, there isn’t a single democratic candidate slated for winning the nomination that can beat him. You’re not going to see the same Trump in the debates that you saw in 2016, he’s learned a lot, keep in mind this is a guy that has people “triggered” by tweets. 
What will help him also is the blowing of the “Russia Hoax” completely out of the water, the IG report is the first step, the indictments and prosecutions that follow will be the next. Once people learn the truth about what has been going on, his support will go up.
Keep in mind most people thought it was impossible he would win in 2016 despite the massive crowds at rallies, these same people are set to make the same mistake again with respect to predictions by ignoring the realities right in front of them.
:rolleyes:
when was the last incumbent to lose with a good economy? I can’t think of one but somebody else will probably know one.
I think we are beyond the point of comparing now to previous elections. When was the last time an incumbent was openly pressuring foreign countries to interfere? When was the last time we knew a foreign power was attacking our elections and we decided to do nothing?
We are in uncharted territory. I know this is a predictions thread, but I can’t even begin to think of how I could possibly predict how this shit show will turn out. I have my hopes, but that’s all they are unfortunately.
He’s liable to lose the popular vote by an even larger margin this time around and still squeak by in the EC. More people than ever oppose him but they appear to be clustered in states that Dems will already win. It’s maddening.
The only hope is that the voters under 40 turn out like they rarely have before. If that bunch, which opposes Don by 25-35 points, gets to the polls in bigly numbers (like some pollsters are predicting), Trump is toast.
The confidence of Trump supporters continues to astonish me. Their guy may indeed win but the implication that they have some kind of secret knowledge about Trump being a shoo-in is something I’ve never seen before. What gives widdat, Trump peoples?