OK, let’s suppose the Russians have awful stuff on Trump. Golden showers, and he’s the recipient. Trump taking loans from oligarchs and promising to stay out of the Russian sphere of influence. Whatever you can imagine, they’ve got it on tape.
OK. So now, if Trump, having received assistance in getting elected (this is a hypothetical) says “Fuck you very much. Now get out of Crimea, depose Assad, and our relationship is just like it’s been for years.” Basically a double-cross.
If they release the material, they’ve shot their wad. Donald’s impeached, but the new Pence administration isn’t going to let bygones be bygones. They’re now in a worse relationship than before. Alternatively, they could let it go, but then they’ve got nothing for the efforts.
In short, if Trump calls their bluff, does he “win?”
I will say Putin is a former KGB agent and the Soviets with the KGB (and Russia inherited it) certainly know how to run a blackmail operation. Possibly one of the best spy agencies in the world at it.
Don’t know the answer to the OP, but I’m hoping the first time Trump & Putin meet, Trump tries that ridiculous hand shake on him and Putin judo flips him into the audience. In other words, I’m really hoping Trump tries to alpha dog him in some way and gets humiliated. That would be the end of the bromance.
We don’t really know what properties he owns with Russian debt, do we? But I’m willing to bet the Russians in question do. Certainly, they have other ways to retaliate besides bad publicity if he tries to break his leash.
Implausible as it stands. Homosexuality used to be the motherlode of blackmailing a spy or bureaucrat — and done by our own secret services as much as the Warsaw Pact countries ( and long before, the Russian hold on Colonel Redl was not for littering ) — since America is now the poster-child for gay marriage, porn-production and all possible sexual freedoms, how the hell could any sex exploit harm Trump or Bill Clinton ? Whatever these pastimes are still thought of in traditionalist Mother Russia or the rest of the world, America will stand for Freedom.
In the post-modern morality he would only have to declare it a matter of love and all would be accepted and embraced. And although such perversions are not realistic in Trump ( except to his more gullible haters ), it’s not as if he has ever been a bastion of wholesome normality or finger-wagging moralist. Any sexual preference could be shrugged off with an ‘I am what I am.’
Plus God Made me that way.
And even his religious puritan followers would be indulgent, just as the feminists muted their criticism of Bill, so long as he delivers on small government crap, making life miserable for immigrants and battling gun-grabbers etc. etc…
Why would Trump have accepted Russian aid in getting elected and then be willing to be impeached in order to defy Russia? If he didn’t care about being President, he wouldn’t have accepted the offer. And if does care about being President, he won’t risk impeachment.
I guess that’s the inherent flaw in all blackmail schemes: if the target just says to hell with it and lets the material be released, then the blackmailer instantly loses his leverage. If the victim stops caring about consequences all their leverage goes away.
But, if Trump was being blackmailed and does care about not being impeached, or becoming a laughing stock, or losing his business or whatever the consequences may be, then they still have leverage of him.
“Publish and be damned.” If all that’s at stake is embarassment and a significant money loss, Trump *could *possibly get over it and his followers would cheer him on that. “I took your favors and now fucked you over. That makes me smart.” He’d re-make his money soon enough on the popularity of such a move.
OTOH as for direct threats against his person or family, I’d rather not have a situation in which Pence ascends to power in the wake of an Act Of War against the USA that must not go unanswered.
Trump will probably skip the handshake and go right in for a big, wet kiss on the mouth. With just a little tongue.
Yeah, this is not like pissing off the Mafia or something. This is serious.
dingdingding
You’re attributing powers of reasoning and logic to Trump. He shoots strictly from the [del]hip[/del] gut. Can’t think ahead-- no attention span, to speak of.
A more general form of the question: Have we ever elected a President who was an open admirer of a non-allied state? For that matter, have we ever elected one who was… openly admiring of a friendly head of state whose interests were not completely allied with ours? Haven’t we always (and I mean always, back to founding fathers) been suspicious of having an executive who was too chummy with any other head of state?
Much less the US’s greatest continuing enemy/opponent in world affairs?
You get what I am driving at. It’s not that I think Trump wouldn’t care about the consequences it’s that if he convinced the Russians he didnt, then leaking the info could actually make their situation worse. If trump realized this, he might be able to call the bluff.