According to some, the implication/assertion goes that Trump has done plenty of grievous things in his life and that evidence of these things has fallen into the hands of Vladimir Putin*, and further that Putin is using these things to blackmail the president. In another thread in Elections, it was suggested that I “do my own homework” after making an off-hand comment that “Trump isn’t being controlled by foreign powers, I don’t think”. The reason I did not go off and do that in depth was, I’ve been following politics fairly closely for decades, and certainly during the Trump years, and I haven’t seen anything that would make me think that Trump is most likely being blackmailed. I’ve have done Google searches, currently watch all the cable news shows, including FOX, and haven’t found anything particularly convincing there. This is not to say that I discount the possiblity that Trump is in fact acting at the behest of Putin. Certainly it’s possible, and I am open to the idea.
In the other thread, someone made the rather ridiculuous assertion that I would need a video of Trump fellating Putin, or a personal letter from the Russian before I would be satisfied. I alluded to the possiblity that it will most likely be very difficult to find “high-quality” evidence of blackmail, some sort of direct connection, but this is not on me. One cannot reduce the standard of proof in this instance, just to make it easier to “prove” something. Since it will be difficult, it’s very likely this thread will die a quick death. But here goes:
I would start off the debate with a few questions as suggestions only. Feel free to start wherever you like.
What “goods” does Putin have on Trump?
What evidence is there that he has communicated to Trump blackmail demands, and what are they?
What has Trump done that suggests he is being blackmailed, that is, something he would not have done unless that is in fact the case.
*Putin is the one I see usually being accused of being a potential blackmailer. Feel free to talk about others as you see fit.
I love the narrative of a hugely competent KGB operation running Trump as an asset. However historical evidence shows that (human) intelligence operations are much more haphazard. It would be the single most successful operation in history. So Occam suggests otherwise.
You “haven’t found anything particularly convincing there” because there is not anything particularly convincing there. It’s been a stupid conspiracy theory from the beginning, and it’s still a stupid conspiracy theory. The people who believe it are delusional.
Funny you should mention Occam. The assertion was made in that other thread that Occam supports the blackmail theory, without elaborating. I said I could very well say the opposite, but also didn’t elaborate. Seems to me that if you add in even a small number of assumptions to account for Putin being involved, I would be right. But anyway, I’d prefer we not get hijacked right from the start…
Trump Tower has or had a server connected to Russia:
Trump is selling Florida property to Russian Oligarchs:
Last year, Trump literally said that he trusts Putin over US intelligence agencies. And don’t forget his son bragged on Twitter about his “Russian meeting.” It confounds me that anyone would dismiss this as “Fake News.”
I don’t think that Trump is not an asset in the sense of “recruited to do the bidding of Russia”
I think he’s more of an asset in the sense of “let’s try to get this moron elected because then he’ll do a huge amount of damage because he’s an idiot”
I mean, turning on your allies the Kurds, and basically letting Syria go to hell and helping ISIS? I don’t think that Russia ordered Trump to do this. I think Trump did this because he’s a complete and total fool.
ETA: Or, he did it because he has been promised something in return. By Turkey.
Putin tried to fuck with the 2016 elections, in order to reduce confidence in the US about the election itself and its outcome. Apparently it worked to some degree.
You do know that the Steele dossier was fake, don’t you?
Eeverything I write in this post is my best guess. No cites, no evidence, just what I guess to be likely.
First:
(a) It is well-known that Trump has benefited from loans and business deals with Russia, and with kleptocrats allied with the Putin-led Russian mob.
(b) The way that Trump cuddles with Putin, e.g. declaring him innocent when security advisers unanimously find him culpable, is striking.
(c) Deviations from Russian policy do NOT imply that Trump is not beholden to Putin. And some deviations will help Putin anyway. Do you think Putin is unhappy with Trump’s antagonism against Putin’s quasi-ally, Iran? You don’t need to study 3-D chess to realize that this enmity is a big boon for Russia.
The extent of financial involvement is likely quite embarrassing. Furthermore, recall that Trump spent the night at a Russian hotel and then vehemently denied that fact. The following are treated by experts as matters of fact;
(a) The suite where Trump stayed would have been bugged and captured on video.
(b) Trump and Putin joked about how talented Russian whores were.
(c) Trump, by his nature, might not have refused admission to lovely Russian ladies come calling.
No evidence (although I think the Steele dossier has specific allegations). No proof. But if there was no impropriety, why did Trump lie about leaving town before nightfall?
The idea that secret radio messages need to be passed for Trump to get requests from Putin is absurd. Recall that the Trump Organization had a direct private link to a Russian computer. Recall that no explicit quid pro quos needed to be enunciated, for example, in the phone call to Ukraine. Recall that Trump and Putin have had private face time including one session where only Putin’s translator was present – No American translator was present.
Is this a joke? Trump has repeatedly sold out our allies and America’s interests to carry water for Putin.
I say we trade the Russians Trump for Snowden and we make him Anti-Corporate state Surveillance Czar, in honor of our close ties with Russia of course.
Thanks for the links. I had read the first one already, and have had time to look at the Wiki link so far. I don’t see in them evidence of Putin having anything on Trump either. Certainly Trump has had/has Russian “connections” though.
Putin doesn’t actually have to have blackmail material on Trump to make him behave the way he does. Trump’s entire history as a shady businessman and narcissist explains why it’s more important to him to support Putin’s agenda rather than the good of the country he has been elected to lead. Trump has enormous business interests in Russia, Putin flatters his ego, and Trump has a history of dealing with shady characters, including Russian ones. All that provides sufficient information. Maybe Putin does have blackmail material on him, but even absent that, I think Trump would still be behaving the same way.
(a) Okay. Wouldn’t mind a link to support this, but let’s say he has benefited. What does this have to do with the OP? Serious question, btw.
(b) If something is indeed going on between Trump and Putin, wouldn’t it make more sense that Trump would stand up to him in public? And the fact that he doesn’t suggests there may be another reason? Say, Trump is simply a coward? He is terrified of a dictator like Putin and tries to pretend he is benign. Then he doesn’t have to stand up to him.
(c) Okay, things have been boon to Russia. This in and of itself isn’t proof of much on its own. ETA: I was asking for specific things, though, if you don’t mind.
I cannot get into the mind of Trump. But as for the other things, if there was/is documented impropriety, you might have something.
Okay, then make that argument to someone who has said secret radio messages need to be passed. But presumably there has to be some way for a communique to happen. Does the Trump Organization still have a direct private link? That could be a way. And since we’ve seen the Ukraine transcript, indeed maybe others will come out.
No, not a joke. And this is not an answer. Again, this is an honest attempt at a discussion. But if Trump has done things that sell out our allies, this could be just because he is a fool. For instance, the whole tariff debacle, where he actually sold out Americans more that allies. Trump doing dumb-ass things on his own can account for his actions. I don’t see that Putin is needed.
All of what you say may be the case. And since the OP is about Trump being a “bought and paid for” asset through blackmail, instead of just a useful idiot, it doesn’t really apply in the thread, I don’t think. But even so, just taking the “enormous business interests in Russia” angle, doesn’t he have more interests in the US and elsewhere? Why jeopardize those, with the hope of making future deals in Russia?