With this post I hope I can shed some light on the motives of Al Qaeda, as they view them.
First of all, and I know this will antagonise a few, AQ does not seek death to all. The first premise for AQ attacks on America was to force American troops to exit the holy places of Islam, and cease its support to Israel. Namely, American troops are present in Saudi Arabia, where the two holiest places of Islam, Mecca and Medina, are present. The third holiest place is Jerusalem, which, under international law, has half of it occupied by Israel.
I think it was Sharq Al Awsat newspaper that published a series of articles by one of the senior commanders of AQ, who was present with Usama in Afghanistan. According to that piece, which I read in Arabic and now cannot find, the idea behind the attacks in Somalia, the embassies (Nairobi and Dar e Salam), and Sept 11th was to strike America so hard that it would not think of attacking AQ. Ossama had seen that the American army, when bombed hard enough in Beirut, would retreat. The same happened in Somalia. After the embassies, . In their delusional minds, they thought that they could win. Then came the attacks against American bases in Saudi Arabia, which were intended to pressure America into leaving. With America gone, the armies of Islam would naturally defeat the Zionist state and its ragtag army that only ranks forth in the world.
According to Ayman Al Zawahiri, al Qaeda, after its experience in Afghanistan, in which, in its belief, it elevated the status of Islam and Muslims by living true to Islam under the Taleban, found that it was losing the fight for the hearts and minds of the Muslim Umma (nationn). Thus it sought to prove itself through attacking Islam’s enemies (in their view, again) in the most spectacular manner. Hence the attacks on USS Cole and Sept 11th. One was against a powerful military vessel, the other in the American heartland. AQ hoped that through such strikes it could gain recognition as the force fighting for Islam (this is from a talk by Gilles Kepel, though I have yet to find the book in which he publishes it)
Ironically enough, the American invasion of Iraq, and Al Zarqawi’s prominence in the insurgency, validated the last point. In the eyes of many Muslims, seeing the pathetic excuses for the invasion (the absence of any WMD), AQ became indeed the force fighting for the wronged Muslims.
Afghanistan’s Jihad had ended. The Taleban were viewed even by Muslims as mindless f***s. Thus the ability to recruit Jihadis was diminished, seeing as there was nowhere to fight. Iraq provided a new fresh ground, a cause to which Muslims could be rallied. After all, if we were to think like AQ, we’d remember that General Powell had gone to the UN and claimed Iraq had WMD and was a threat to the world. America then retracted and said there were none. What reason could there be for the invasion other than attacking the Muslims? And Blair following so blindly meant that it was a conspiracy by the new crusaders against the Muslims. Did not Bush use the word crusade in one of his speeches. And the only one to be fighting these new crusaders was AQ. It could rally Muslims as it pleased.
This is how I perceive AQ’s impression of the world. Moreover, in their view, the West, through its support of Israel and Arab dictators, had wronged them greatly. The West had colonised Muslim nations, and, while it brought benefits, it had also abused its authority terribly. The deterioration of the Muslim world is blamed on the West by AQ. So the natural response is to free the holy places of Islam and re-establish a Muslim caliphate, from there march to Jerusalem. Usama would become the new Saladin.
And that is the end objective, in their view. To free Muslim lands of none Muslims, and, in those lands, to live in accordance with Muslim law. Seeing how well the Taliban did in Afghanistan, as an Arab, all I can say to America is, don’t you dare leave Iraq without cleaning that mess.
It is because of this mess that AQ decided to attack London. After all, they had never provoked the British. The last conflict between a Muslim nation and the UK was in 1956. Why would Britain, often a critic of Israel, decide to attack Iraq with America? The same applies to Madrid. In one of Usama’s messages, he answers that question, saying that if AQ sought violence for the sake of violence, why did it not attack Sweden? The truce he offered the Europeans, in exchange for withdrawing their forces from the Middle East, is another example.
One problem with this analysis is the attacks in Phillipines, perpetrated by Abu Sayyaf (a Phillipino) Group. Another one is Bali. They could be explained as seperate incidents with more focus on the Phillipino government and the Indonesian government. I really don’t know how to fit these in.
One possibility could be that these bombings are done by organisations that had been of a violent nature even before AQ’s prominence, and only surfaced so violently after they received funding and support from Al Qaeda, itself trying to expand its network and expertise. Thus it is understandable that the Islamic Jama’a in Indonesia and Abu Sayyaf in the Phillipines would continue in their agenda whilst cooperating with AQ. I don’t know.
Captain Murdoch, their problem with France is about banning the hijab. Norway has troops in Iraq.