Mea culpa, I didn’t look at the Nowcast today (or any day). When he announced that the model was live, he said the Nowcast showed a much lower chance for Drumpf, but he also said that it was designed to be very sensitive to new information. So the new Quinnipiac numbers must have shifted it quite a bit.
None of this, of course, negates any of the points I made about how you can’t just treat this like a regular horserace.