We’re talking polls over 2 months out still. Statistics is the king of “it could happen”, which is pretty much what we’re seeing. Compared to Trump’s chances of winning, Clinton still has a not-insignificant chance of a double digit victory.
As to whether or not the lead is “big” I’ll
[quote Silver]
(Election Update: It’s Too Soon For Clinton To Run Out The Clock | FiveThirtyEight) from just a few days back: it’s not at all close but it is, in his mind, uncertain.
[quote=“DSeid, post:5685, topic:753901”]
As to whether or not the lead is “big” I’ll
This is my view as well. My view, pretty much, is whatever Silver says. I see no point in substituting my own far inferior judgment on the state of the race to his, considering his track record.
AAHHAHAHahHHahhaahahahah!!!!!…-Latino-voters
Trump ‘on track’ to hit an historic low with Latino voters
Who the living fuck are that 19 percent?
BTW, he didn’t actually say fuck. He bleeped himself, live.
The people against tacos?
It is not unknown among Hispanic Americans to desire to pull up the ladder now that they are here and have what they want. Human, all too human.
… and they probably thought they’d never have to see another taco again in their lives, too.
I forget which comedian who said his grandfather was the type of guy who leaves Ellis Island, signs his immigration papers and then turns to the guy behind him in line and says “Now get off my land”.
Sam Wang, otoh, says that Clinton’s win probability is better than that:
No personal opinion, I won’t be happy until she’s sworn in, but it’s nice to know that early voting starts in three weeks.
Oh - and Donald hasn’t paid his top staffers yet - rofl.
That cheers me up.
Cuban-Americans. Older Cuban-Americans…
I think we are finding the crazification index of Hispanics. Less than the overall American one 
Older Cuban Americans aren’t even close to 19% of the Hispanic population.
It must be noted that Silver does have an interest in keeping the perception of a horse race going while Wang does not. And that Wang’s track record is as good as Silver’s is.
But for the purpose of that comment - neither thinks the race is “close” - objectively it is not. The difference is the confidence they each express in how much current polling will or will not change to the level of a Trump win. Silver emphasizes the numbers of undecideds and the unknowns of turnout and Wang emphasizes how, excepting expected turbulence around the conventions, stable the race has been, behaving like other elections since 1992, with low variability, and a S.D. from current polling of about 3% (decreasing as time goes on). Hence Silver says not close but has less confidence that it won’t change (and conveniently he’s “right” no matter what happens having hedged greatly), and Wang is more willing to go out a limb.
They’re just not selling you any tacos.
I live in the Bay Area, and we have taco trucks on nearly every corner and very low unemployment, so it must be true.
And FWIW NYT’s The Upshot puts it at 87% probable for Clinton.
“An immigrant is someone who got here after you did.”