The Washington Post: How Donald Trump retooled his charity to spend other people’s money
I can’t quote more than four paragraphs, but at the end of the article it tooks about how the Trump Foundation (which consists mostly of money donated by people other than Trump) sometimes pays donations for which Trump publicly put himself on the hook.
An example it gives of this is the time Trump went on a TV contest called Trump Pays Your Bills!. The winner’s bills were paid… by the Trump Foundation.
Vox: Trump gave a shocking interview, we’re numb:
“Poorly rated TV show wants me to pay bills for some loser? I don’t pay bills from anyone. Sad!”
This passage struck me the most:
Trump has redefined what passes for acceptable and desensitized the public to the point of having lost our sense of outrage. We’re entering extremely dangerous territory, but the voting public is asleep at the wheel, too busy watching Dancing With the Stars or The Voice to give a damn.
The Polls (which ones? all of them!) so far indicate that the voting public is not completely asleep at the wheel. We shouldn’t get complacent but in all likelihood Trump is going to lose and lose big time.
I think that the next polls in about 3-4 days time will show that Clinton’s stumble at the 9/11 ceremony really had very little effect on people’s decisions.
The polls are typically 3-5 days behind a news cycle. I’m expecting a fairly significant drop for Hillary by polls released toward the end of the week, though any advantage lost at this juncture is certainly recoverable. If Hillary can somehow make it through the next series of polls relatively unscathed that would be a very welcome sign, and it would probably mean that the cake is starting to bake a little.
Not as weird as clicking the link expecting it to be the Bok Tower.
What polls says Trump is going to lose big time? When you say “All of them,” are you saying “all of them” in a way that excludes LA Times, SurveyMonkey, Ipsos, CVOTER, Gravis, Yougov, Marist, ABC News, Quinnipiac, and a dozen or more others that all say the same thing; Clinton’s lead is slim?
I mean no offense, but you keep saying this over and over in multiple threads but it’s as if you are reporting from a different universe than the one the rest of us inhabit. There is no evidence from the polls that Trump is “Going to lose big time.” He is probably behind, but by a small margin. At no point has he EVER been behind by a really historic, genuine-landslide margin.
For Trump to lose big time, either
The polls are wrong, or
They are going to dramatically change for no reason that is immediately apparent.
Can you explain which it is, and why?
I don’t think he’s going to lose big time. But I think an option you don’t cover is that the polls are right about people’s preferences but his voters don’t turn out. Unless you think that is covered by likely voter screens? I don’t.
I’m talking about the electoral college spread. This is really not a close election when you look at the states Trump needs to flip to win, its almost impossible. Also 538’s polls plus currently has Clinton 70% chance to win, again not close.
The states don’t move independently, though. If Trump wins Colorado, for example, whatever factors caused that are very likely to have caused him to win New Hampshire, Ohio, and Iowa too. So saying he has to flip a lot of states isn’t really different from saying he needs to gain 3 points in the national polls. He does need to do that, but he could easily do that.
A 30% chance of something happening in the real world is very far from “almost impossible.” In your everyday life, you would experience those odds as a coin flip. You have better odds in Russian roulette.
Louis XIV: “One king, one law, one faith.”
Adolph Hitler: “Ein Völk, ein Reich, ein Führer.”
Donald Trump: “One people, one God, one flag.”
Man, they aren’t even trying to hide it anymore.
Exactly. Well said. Trump is so relentlessly, egregiously wrong in what he says so much of the time, and Hillary is so loathed by the GOP electorate, that their eyes have glazed over.
Unless you think elections just started in 2000, that isn’t even “losing big time”, either. It’s not even close to that. The RCP map has it 209-154 Clinton with 175 states yet to be decided, many of which are leaning Trump. 538 has the average outcome 308-230 (this is not a specific map, but an average of all simulated maps.) Princeton, the most bullish on Clinton, has it 294-199, 45 tossups. Those are all results consistent with a small lead in votes, and would flip quickly if Trump gained 3-4 points, a perfectly plausible thing. Take the Princeton map and add 2 points to Trump and he’s a state away. He would need a point or two more, and Pennsylvania could fall, and boom, he’s President.
Elections that weren’t close were elections like 1996, and 1984 and 1988 were REAL blowouts. That’s what losing big time looks like.
Your claim that the task Trump faces is impossible is complete nonsense. He has to improve his standing in the overall polls by four points, and he’ll be the favourite. That is by no stretch of the imagination a simple thing to do, but it’s quite possible.
You are mixing up your messages.
First of all, a 70% chance to win is damn close. You are saying, in effect, that the election is sufficiently close that you don’t really know who’s going to win. Thirty percent in September is quite close; Trump has as good a chance of winning the election as a good baseball hitter would have of getting a hit in his next at bat. If an All-Star steps up to the plate, are you saying you’d bet much that he WOULDN’T get a hit?
Secondly, the likelihood of winning does not correspond to your claim that Trump “will lose big time.” Losing by a small margin, which the polls clearly indicate will be the case if things remain this way, is still losing by a small margin.
Trumps comes out against Freedom of Religion, says that
Does he say this to a religious and/or far-right wing group? Nope.
He is declaring this war on other religions while speaking to the National Guard.
This is the 34th thing that I would think would sink his campaign (but won’t).
Well that’s because Hillary had pneumonia and didn’t tell us and then something metallic fell out of her pants! You simply don’t have your priorities straight.
I stand by my prediction. Trump is going to lose big time. The polls are rigged, in his favour. I don’t believe that any of the polls are accurately taking into account the fact that Trump has zero ground game or get out the vote. Obama organised an excellent GOTV campaign and I assume he or his people are helping Clintons. It all comes down to election day and Clinton has a rock solid organisation to call people and harass them to vote or organise to drive people to the polling booths, that is what is going to make the difference.
No one should get complacent, but I do predict it’s going to be more of a blowout in Clintons favour than the polls (even 538’s polls plus) say. GOTV is everything nowadays and Trump has almost zero in this respect.
Judging by the way it bounces, looks like something small and relatively light, metal, but a very thin piece of metal. What do you call those things that you open a can of pop with?