I think Thing may have just come out with the corollary to Roosh’s plan. It sounds like an idea that may work but I’ve got to ask why no one has questioned RyJae’s investigation of Fluid. It gives no additional information about the unknowns and would either give a confirmed townie or cause her to be the subject of the lynch to discover which detective was right. Neither of which is very useful.
From the Mods kill post from Last night
The mood is cold and bitter, and the urgency of the situation is obvious. Find a killer today, or the town will be eliminated.
So with that I would take it that there are almost certainly 4 scum and 4 townies left.
It it were 3 and 5 then not lynching scum today would not imply the end of the game, just 3 and 3 the next morning.
That depends on the exact wording of the Mafia’s win condition.
The most common one I’m aware of is
“You win if at any time Mafia numbers equal or exceed those of the Town.”
If that’s the case here then the game would already be over if the current situation was 4-4. The fact that the game continued after last Night suggests to me that it isn’t 4-4. It might be; it depends on the Mafia win condition (which I don’t know).
If it’s now 5-3, if the town mislynch then all the Mafia have to do is kill anyone.
I also have to say that Ryjae’s finding that cckerberos is Mafia looked to me Yesterday like scum bussing a townie with a false positive, which made sense only if the Mafia won that Night. They killed a townie but didn’t win anyway, so that can’t be right.
At this point, I’d be fairly certain there’s only 3 scum. We had no masons, and there were only 14 to start with, so that would seem fairly balanced, though I’m too lazy to do any math on it.
I’m also suspicious of why Ryjae would have investigated fluiddruid, particularly after I had made a point Yesterday that none of the detectives should deliberately overlap their investigations. Maybe fluiddruid is the Godfather and he did it to “confirm” her? Maybe he didn’t want to risk having to give a result on one of the others, because if he said town on scum, and peeker had investigated him and said he was town, there’d be some interesting drama.
That all said, I’m still disinclined to believe Ryjae, because I can’t see the pro-town motivation for double-checking. It might also be good reason why I was killed because I made a point about it and I would have called him on it.
Either way, I think they pretty much HAVE to lynch one or the other Today or they won’t have any information to run on. Although, there may be good reason to lynch another of the “unknowns”, but I’m too lazy to work that out since I’m not actually in the game anymore.
So my first attempt at some analysis failed horribly. Best stay out methinks.
We’re all wrong from time to time. Hang around and watch. Get in on the next game and try your hand at it for real.
It’s all good fun.
So, Blaster Master, how should I have played better? Should I have not tried to stay under the radar as a power role?
Holy cow, this is getting interesting. I had a feeling that Ryjae was scum, but fluiddruid’s post commenting on the difference between their role PMs does make me think.
If I was still in the game, I am not sure who I would vote for at this point.
Did the CoG888 the mod ever say it was Ok for them to reveal their PMs, I can’t find the post.
Personally I don’t think it is right that people should be able to reveal their PMs, disguised or not, it seams a outside the game sort of way to convince people of roles, similar to the townie suicide in the last game.
I said they can not quote their PMs, but they can paraphrase. This applies to non-role PMs as well, but that hasn’t come up yet.
RyJae - 3 (peekercpa, HoopyFrood, cckerberos)
Dotchan - 2 (Thing Fish, bufftabby)
peekercpa - 3 (Dotchan, fluiddruid, RyJae)
So we have a draw between to two detectives.
If I understand (and there is no evidence for this ) the rules it will come down to a toss up between the two.
I would say either thing fish or Bufftabby is scum, and is waiting to see who the other one changes their vote to. If the town of the pair changes to the scum detective they will go the other way and force it to the same random choice we have now. If the town of the pair votes for the real detective then they will just have to follow suit and game over.
So whoever of the two votes last is scum.
As for Fluids question about where is everyone, what are the chances they are all lurking off line and planning a last minute rush. If it goes badly for the scum they can still claim they were away/on the can with a troublesome issue/detained by a passing alien mothership.
I agree the only way a detective will have more votes then the other is if they are town. But since no one is posting I’m not sure they will have time to notice this and change their votes accordingly.
Game Over!
Has there ever been a game on SDMB where no scum were lynched at all?
Never happened.
Well, unless you count the 3-handed matches off-board.
Great…I’m part of freakin’ history :rolleyes: Is there any beer left?
Well there is a keg over there set out for the scum, looks like it hasnt even been tapped yet. 
Lessons I learned from this game:
- Being persuaded by my arguments that I’m Town is not a scumtell!
- Last-minute vote switches are overrated as scumtells.
Sorry, RyJae and Unkempt! My Day Two vote was particularly chickenshit. I first voted for** RyJae**, figuring he was scum trying to distance himself from my lynch. That vote at least made some sense, but then when he roleclaimed, I fell into the false thinking of Unkempt as the "poor man’s RyJae. In fact, Unkempt couldn’t possibly have shared that scum motivation, since he opened it up for me to tie up the vote; he had to know that, especially if I lived, he would attract a lot of attention for that. This dawned on me towards the end of the Day, but frankly, I think I was too scared of being lynched the next Day to pull a last-minute vote change. I didn’t show the guts Unkempt had shown the previous Day, and put my own self-interest ahead of the Town interest. Sucks when that happens. I rationalized this by figuring that the “keeping** NAF** out of the game” motive was still in play, but should have realized:
- If you propose a theory that nobody seems to take at all seriously, it is probably not the case that you are smarter than all of them put together.
Also on Day Two reread, I noticed that Hoopy had initially pointed out the flaw in the “poor man’s RyJae” logic, but then (presumably realizing that there was a chance to get a Townie lynch out of it) subtly backed off that argument. I filed this away as an interesting tidbit, but never got suspicious enough of Hoopy to put it out there for Town to consider. Probably a bad move in retrospect.
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If you think there are only n town in the game, a bandwagon with n+1 or more people on it, which seems to have no strong opposition, is not likely to end happily for Town. Sorry for not figuring that out soon enough, Oredigger.
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I wanna play again!! Just need some time to catch up with all the various RL responsibilities that fell by the wayside over the last month…
I think they owe me one. Knowing now which side bufftabby was on, I don’t want any part of the Town beer anyway!
The off-board game’s sub list is getting quite short. If anybody is interested in being a sub they should contact Pollux Oil.