No question. A poll I posted earlier in this thread showed that a majority of Republicans in exit polls don’t trust the voting process to be secure. And that will factor into it.
But also note that the three-quarters with negative views of the way things are going right now will probably include most of those same people concerned about the attack on democracy.
I don’t think we can draw any firm conclusions from any of this info, this is just a reminder that there is a lot of nuance to these questions, and they aren’t really a determination of much of anything. The final vote tallies will be.
This is not different from right/wrong direction polling pre-election. And it isn’t much different from recent similar polls in other English speaking countries.
Yes, it bodes badly for the incumbent party. For Harris to even be close under these conditions is a big achievement showing that she is an excellent candidate and DJT a poor one.
If Harris wins, my takeaway will be that American democracy was so strong that it prevailed even under near worst-case stress,
If you eliminate the 35-40% who are the diehard Repubs and would never admit that the economy under a Dem administration is doing well, that 35% economy result becomes 50-55%. We also have the “vibecession” effect thanks to gaslighting by many media outlets, where people think that specifically* they are doing fine, but it’s other people (somewhere) who are in the midst of a recession. Numerous polls have shown a substantial amount of ignorance about how inflation works, where deflation is said to be a desirable outcome…
Yeah, I guess the incumbent party automatically gets all of the blame for any perception that things “aren’t going well”, but a substantial number of the nay votes there could be Dem and other liberal-leaners who dislike what the GOP has done, including how Trump has poisoned the discourse in this country. Based on all the anti-abortion laws along with other dire GOP-passed legislation at the state level, that is almost certainly a given.
[*Obligatory “No, I do NOT mean to downplay the instances where someone is genuinely having trouble paying bills and such”…]
I’ve often said that Miller looks like the perfect stereotypical Nazi, and in fact has an uncanny resemblance to a younger Joseph Goebbels. He definitely has a cruel look about him.
I voted early. There are many one way streets in WV and the parking for early voters was in front of the court house, not in front of the county elections building. As I’m not from around here, I parked in the proper place and saw a line leading into a government building. I was happy to join the line while thinking good thoughts about how civic minded people were here.
I did think the metal detectors were a bit much, but I obediently followed the line of jurors returning to court after lunch before I finally got a clue.
In case anyone wonders why we Canadians will be drinking heavily tonight, aside from the fact that major events within the US inevitably affect Canada, too, I’ve seen estimates that a Trump presidency would cause the national GDP to fall by several percentage points.
Although that might be offset by a massive influx of highly qualified, skilled, and educated American refugees seeking safety in a sane country!
Some people in the comments section at Nate Silver’s blog are saying Harris is significantly outperforming Biden in the bits of Indiana and Kentucky that have reported.
Surely, the exit polls would also include, you know, “Who did you just vote for?”. Don’t bother with proxies when you can see the closest thing we have to real data.
First not-so-good indicator (per Kornacki / MSNBC) is that in Osceola county, FL (heavily Hispanic), with 71% of the vote counted, TFG is polling at 48% - when he only polled at 42% vs Biden and 36% vs Hillary in that county.
