You’re a more sanguine person than I am. I would bet heavily on Trump right now. That seems to match what the betting markets are saying.
Thanks!
GA does no look good for Harris.
FL goes to Trump. A lot of fantasies crushed with that one.
Looking a NYTimes the only thing that isn’t either going as expected or a tossup is GA “leaning” Trump.
So not great but not over.
Yeah, and that one pisses me off. I know there are some … rural … counties where Trump is a shoo-in, but for people actually following the news/paying attention … really?
I wouldn’t be too bothered by betting markets. Remember, they’re trying to balance their book, so they make money no matter who wins.
I’m going to try to just not watch or listen for an hour or so. The sizable systemic error for Harris that I was hoping for does not seem to be showing up. Oof.
Understatement of the night.
Unrealistic fantasies IMO
Lose Georgia but win North Carolina is break even.
Harris is significantly outperforming Biden is key counties in Pennsylvania so far. ALL of them, from what I can see; Allegheny (that’s Pittsburgh) Philadelphia, Dauphin (Harrisburg) Erie, Lackawanna (Scranton) and Montgomery. I don’t see below the county level though, and of course counties are not universally the same in all polling places. She needs more than PA, but she does need it.
Correct.
I won’t post or read for a while since I’m off to my wake/party/hospital hand-holding. At least it is good to have a place to go where I will be surrounded by like-minded people, whatever news comes in.
True, but Biden only lost Florida by 4 percent. It’s the margin that gives me pause.
PA is looking good for Harris so far.
I was merely using that to backup my initial reading.
GA is likely gone, and I have big doubts for NC based on VA. Which leaves the blue wall.
So, absolutely best case we are counting PA and WI for a few days and Harris ekes it out. But I would not bet heavily on that.
About the only thing I can see changing things right now is if the suburban counties come in a bit heavier for Harris than it seems right now and the election-day vote is not as pro-GOP as it normally is.
@Smapti , right now, I hope you were correct with your “early red wave” comment that you made previously. Gosh, when are we going to get some blue states with more than single-digit EVs?
Exactly. Biden romped in VA and held close in FL. The opposite is happening this year. I don’t see how that can spell good news in NC and GA.
Similarly we don’t have a call in IL yet.
Again, maybe we get lucky and PA/WI/MI and more resilient than FL/GA/NC (and maybe VA?).
They’re holding off on calling states like IL or NY that are 99.9% certain to go to Harris, which is a little annoying.
NYT shows 71-101. Includes Illinois.
I’m frickin’ shaking here.