Estimate the chance of a regime change in Russia

Great Debates
62

When it comes to Russia, take that kind of SNAFUs and multiply them by at least 20.

I have first-hand knowledge of Russia (my ex-wife and daughter live in Moscow, I have been spending time there on a regular basis between 1993 and 2019, just before the pandemic, and I know people in the Russian military). At a systemic level, what I have seen is a general culture of incompetence and corruption that pervades everything. And that was in Moscow. I don’t know (and frankly I wouldn’t like to know) how it would be in the Russian equivalent of podunkville.

My military friends there basically have told me that the situation in their military is one of constant fucking chaos and utter mismanagement. One managed to get in touch with me after the present “unpleasantness” began. He told me of his doubts about the ability of Russia to win this, and about (his words) the absolute “brothel” that every branch of the Russian military (including the nuclear forces) is.

On top of the stealing (those mega-yachts are not cheap), stealing that according to my contacts happened at all levels (from the loftiest generals to the lowest privates, most everybody regularly stole either money or stuff from the military - including several of my friends)… it would transpire that there are not a few elements in the military itself that are not happy about this whole situation and also that the morale is, generally speaking, bad - especially among the troops.

Putin has the authority to order a strike with nuclear weapons. That order has to be authorized by lower-level officers on its way to the actual launching crews. Obedience no matter what is instilled in the Russian military doctrine, of course. But there are also quite a few people in the military who would not be particularly up to the task.

Again - it is not about dismissing the threat that Putin represents. He is a dangerous MF. But it has to be put into perspective as well. No, we cannot count on one or several Petrovs that would stop that order from going through. But at the same time we know that they exist. We cannot dismiss out of hand the chances of the Russian military. But we know that the condition of the Russian military across the board is not good. We cannot forget that Russia has millions of men at its disposal. But the morale of those men tends to be bad.

We need to take everything into account if we want to assess the situation and the chances of Russia acting one way or another. I am certain that the US and NATO governments and militaries are doing precisely that, anyway.

I do not see that much wavering, and from what I hear inside Russia the sanctions are biting.

As to China, we must never forget that, first and foremost, it will act taking exclusively into account what is going to be convenient and profitable for itself.

If China ends up becoming the main provider of money and materials for Russia, even if the amounts were enough to compensate what Russia has lost (and they will not be), it is certain that the conditions China will impose on Russia in exchange are going to make Russia their bitch. There is zero love lost between those two.

Also, in any case, Russia right now does not have the capability to send oil and gas to China in the volumes that it has been sending to Europe, and it will take time and money to build that up. China could put up the money, indeed, but it will be in exchange of Russia becoming China’s bitch (see above), which is a big toad to swallow for Russia.

As the contracts for gas and oil end and are not renewed between May and the beginning of 2023 (which is the consensus here in Europe regarding what to do about it), with the Nord Stream 2 dead in the water, Russia will have trouble finding a substitute for them that will provide the amount of money that Russia used to receive.

Anyway - sorry for the wall of text. We appear to have different opinions regarding the chances of Russia doing something rash and of Russia managing to get the upper hand in this conflict. You seem to consider them to be higher than what I consider them (but of course I do most emphatically not consider them to be zero).

It is up to the strategists and analysts in the US and NATO militaries and governments to do this, they definitely are doing it, and in general they are not going to be talking about their conclusions.

We will see how it goes.

63

If I understand Putin’s “logic” here, all Lithuania, China and Turkey have to do is to claim that these parts of Russia are being run by Nazis, and then they have a free hand to invade these parts of Russia and bomb the hell out of civilians.

Of course, this will not happen, but following Putin’s “logic”, then this is permissible.

64

This is kind of what I was trying to get at–knowing how overstressed the Russian military is, why wouldn’t countries on its many borders decide that pickin’s are pretty ripe now? Cross a river, climb a mountain, and take over a town or two. Maybe Putin sends some troops in, maybe not, but he’s limited in his reinforcements–this seems like a good time for his neighbors to encroach on Russian territory, especially those with legitimate claims on the territories being claimed.

65

I would half expect Poutine to set off an underground nuclear “test” or “tests” somewhere in Siberia and make “no comments” to keep everyone on their toes.

66

If there was ever a “legitimate” excuse for Russia to use nuclear weapons, this would be it.

67

Nukes over an attempt by Finland to take a tiny bit of Russian territory, knowing that it could trigger a nuclear attack back by NATO countries, or at least turn countries to help Finland out? I’d say that four or five similar incursions simultaneously, small strategic border incursions, could be very successful against a beleaguered Russian military.

68

Personally, I’d take a page out of the Putin playbook, declare that those territories are and always were Finnish/Turkish/etc. and offer the locals a path to avoid sanctions and the like by starting to pay taxes out to their new nation, in return for “training” and “infrastructure” to defend their own territory. Free passports and visits to Europe, whenever desired.

69

I heard Putin saying the sanctions have failed. Why would he even say that, unless they’re busting his balls?

70

I think you might be on to something here. I would not be at all surprised if he does this as the next escalatory step in his threats against NATO’s arming Ukraine.

The way things are going Russia is heading in the direction of North Korea.

71

I don’t understand these suggestions. Do you want to live in a world where countries are invading each other to take bits of land? Where nuclear armed countries are being invaded? Why would someone from Turkey or Finland want this? There is no upside and lots of downside.

Regarding NATO, I assume the Collective Defense of Article 5 does not cover acts of aggression by member states? If Turkey invaded Russia to take some territory, I don’t think NATO would want to be involved.

Has a nuclear power ever been invaded?

72

Aren’t I living in that world right now?

73

A nuclear attack would likely end Europe’s wavering and it might encourage other countries to join the sanctions (India, China, Pakistan). There are a lot of variables and it is all speculation, but it would have to be part of Russia’s calculus.

74

So, I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said, and you clearly have more recent and intimate contact with Russian people and culture than I have. I just don’t think that we can dismiss the threat of the Russian nuclear arsenal based upon the performance of their conventional forces and inherent corruption. Unless their nuclear arsenal is a complete paper tiger, it remains a serious threat even if it is significantly less reliable than that of the United States.

I agree that China will use its position as the essentially exclusive trading partner with a highly sanctioned Russia to squeeze every bit of leverage from Russia, not just economically but in gaining access to mineral rights and possibly even to take disputed territory in Mongolia. China will be looking to gain every advantage and weighing that against any possible (but unlikely) significant sanctions from NATO powers to sweeten its overall pot against both Russia and NATO (and by extension AUKUS and other alliances) as well as to maintain a distraction that will keep the US occupied in Eastern Europe while it diddles in the South China Sea.

Sanctions are affecting Russians (mostly in terms of goods that they can access rather than overall economic impacts) but Putin has been preparing for a long haul economic siege. It will impact ordinary Russians (and his precious oligarchs who have long benefited from his largess and laundered his money) long before it is a real pressure on Putin and the military industrial capacity of the Russian government. Ultimately, the economic consequences of this invasion will be devastating to Russia even before considering the impacts of sanctions; although there are oil and mineral reserves in the Donbas region that are theoretical gains, the reality is that the costs of the invasion are far beyond what Russia can actually bear without substantial hardship, and with sanctions imposed it is hard to see how Russia can maintain an industrial economy long term (and again, China will sell them goods but not prop up their economy they way they have with North Korea).

Russia was already a failing petrostate in an era when the world is realizing that the hydrocarbon energy economy is coming to a grinding halt; now it is a pariah that even counties looking to extend their access to oil and gas reserves are now second guessing their connection to. We’ll see what actually comes of sanctions but Russia is going to be in a terrible place even without them, and trying to hold onto the territory they’ve taken is going to be a hemorrhaging economic wound with little upside. My personal fear is that Putin comes to this realization only after having so fully committed that there is no way to withdraw the Russian Army and save any kind of face, and will elect that apocalyptic violence is the better part of defeat, i.e. if Russia can’t have Ukraine nobody else will either. It is wholly unthinkable that he would arbitrarily and without reward kill millions of people out of a sense of pique, but then two months ago I said that Russia would not actually invade Ukraine because it would be a terminally stupid action that would result in failure and now here we are, so my gauge on the limitations of what to expect is no longer bounded by rationality of the players.

Stranger

75

good points:

  • let alone that they had 25 years with spendings significantly below that, with probably close to zero financial wiggle room to pay for nuke-upkeep (hey, you need to pay wages, too … and the war in syria isnt going to pay for itself and the 2014 ukr.stint ,… ;-))

76

Give official statements whatever credence you see fit, but it is official Russian policy to defend its existence and “sovereignty” using nuclear weapons. Maybe think things over before marching hundreds of thousands of guys across the border.

77

The tricky bit about nukes is that it only takes one of them to have our day go from:

9:00 - all is well
9:30 - 9/11 x 100

Finland is going to risk that to acquire a sliver of worthless land?

78

China might. They still remember that Outer Manchuria (not exactly a sliver of land; it is about 1,000,000 km2 in area) was theirs, the 2001 treaty notwithstanding. And in the 1970s they actually fought real border skirmishes with the Soviets, which didn’t escalate into a full-blown war basically by the Grace of God.

Putin is behaving irrationally. I can see Xi also going down into the deep end, especially if frustrations with a faltering economy and not being able to go for Taiwan get the better of him.

(Joke time: in the 1970s a joke doing the rounds in the Soviet Union was that Soviet scientists had invented a machine to bring back objects from the future. They test it and they manage to bring back a German newspaper from 2050. The translated headline says: “tensions increase in the Chinese-Finnish border”)

79

anybody else noticing that Putin is always “holding the desk” on recent videos? … maybe he is trying to disguise a tremor or something … does not look like a natural hand position, does it?

also, he looks “propped up” … or kind of like a stroke-survivor in this clip … if you compare the body language of the both participants, his is really “off” … and that is evidently a heavily edited video

new vid (from today or y/day?)
Video on Twitter

80

He’s just making sure nobody steals his chewing gum while he’s distracted by military matters.

81

I must agree. Principally because a 90% failure of warheads in a hypothetical all-out Russian nuclear attack is not a win. It’s not even a 90% win. It is a total loss.