CNN has called Maine for Obama with 70% of the vote in.
Obama should be spending every day in Ohio and Texas.
He is…So are a lot of - ok let me rephrase - So are THOUSANDS of volunteers. He’s got quite a rally going there. See here
[tinfoil hat ON]
Does either Ohio or Texas use Diebold voting machines in primaries? Given that it appears the Republican establishment would rather run its candidate against Hillary…
:eek:
[tinfoil hat OFF]
It is my understanding that the word “caucus” in this context can have two meanings. One is simply a secret ballot, such as every state will have in the general elections, that is run by the party rather than the state. The other, most famous in Iowa, is standing in a room and discussing your choice and publicly supporting your candidate. This type, because it takes longer and must be done all at once, favors the politically passionate, and is thus easier to spin as being the result of a small group of zealots. Am I correct? And which is Maine?
I was very impressed with the level of organization in Obama’s campaign in Georgia. (And we were just one of many Super Tuesday states.) I didn’t see anything approaching that from Hillary. Obama had people at the precincts. (I was one of them.) But there was no sign of Hillary’s much-ballyhooed “organization.”
I’d be willing to bet that Obama is way ahead of Hillary in having troops on the ground in Ohio and Texas.
Back to handicapping yet again …
Obama now leads pledged delegates 998 to 921 - a 77 delegate lead. All together the Potomac primaries are worth 238 delegates. If he indeed wins there by margins similar to what he’s been winning (and every sign is that he will do at least that) then he will end up with 2/3 to 3/4 of those delegates - conservatively another 158 pledged delegates, extending his pledged delegate lead to 155. Hawaii he should win handily (he was born and raised there) and that’s worth 29, give him about 20 of them any way. That’s up to 156. Wisconsin, he’ll likely do well there but call him only taking a slight lead, say 50 to 42, gives him a 164 lead.
So a 164 delegate lead going into March 4th with Ohio (161), Texas(228), Vermont(23), and Rhode Island(32). That’s a total of 444 delegates up for grabs. That’s a lot. But even if HRC got 2/3 of the delegates in all those states, a highly unlikely outcome, he’d still be in the lead. And the only big state until Pennsylvania on April 22nd is Mississippi (40). He’ll end up with more pledged delegates.
Barring a major upset in Virginia or an absolute blow-out by unprecedented margins on March 4th her only chances lie in the seating of Florida and Michigan delegates without separate new caucuses, or in superdelegates going against the wishes of the electorate. Neither will happen as either would doom her chances and greatly harm the party as a whole.
Superdelegates will start to do this math and see it the same way. It will possibly wait until after March 4th and a possible toss-up in those states but the pressure on HRC to defer to Obama and support him “for the good of the country” will win out by March 8th at the latest.
The Clinton News Network still has Hillary ahead, 1148-1121. RCP has it Obama 1137-1134. ABC has it Hillary 1136-1108. CBS has Obama 1134-1131. MSNBC has it Obama 943-895. The NY Times has Clinton ahead 912-741. The Washington Post has Clinton ahead 1136-1108.
I think if Obama can keep it close in Texas and pull out a win in Ohio, it will all be over.
DSeid matches my rough calculations. It all comes down to the March 4th states. Really, it all comes down to Texas. How do they like Hillary down there?
With a heavey potomac win and a decent win in Texas Obama will be the electoral favorite, it’s leaning that way as it is. DSeid’s Math is accurate and refelcting major news shows this morning.
I predict the DNC leans heavy on Clinton after March 4th to support Obama for the good of the party and the good of the country. If she simply fades to black and doens’t come out in support because she’s pissed, it’ll ruin any future run for her. Additionally, I think this is it for Clinton - I doubt she’d go through it again.
As someone that grew up in Franklin County (Pasco High Class of 93), this makes me very happy. It’s a large county though I have to guess this result was in one of the more rural areas… The town I grew up in has a population of over 50k and I would guess it could draw more than one person to caucus.