So I had no idea how the first waiver period was going to shake out. Guillotine leagues are a niche thing, there’s not a lot of strategy guides or real world experience with leagues to see how it’s done. There were definitely some strategy tips that said don’t ever spend more than $200 or so on a guy, try to save your money to pick up players all season long, there will be a ton of them over the course of the season.
So I thought maybe I was totally off with my bid for Chase, and that I’d outbid everyone else by a huge amount. I was happy to see that I kind of nailed it – I was only $40-53 ahead of the next 3 bids (about 12% higher). That was pretty much the lowest price I could’ve got Chase for.
Now, was it wise to be the one who paid a shitload to get Chase? Maybe. My logic is: Chase is an end-game piece, he will always start for me and never be replaced. Even if I’m down to the last two teams at the end and I have most of the NFL available to my team, I’m going to want Chase. So that makes him more valuable than a mid-tier player that I would be looking to again replace in the future.
Getting him early also gives value. While it’s true that you never have to win any weeks, you just need to not be last, getting good players on can only help. There’s a chance that one of these weeks my team has a bad game and it’s Chase’s big game that saves my season. Not a huge chance of this, but enough that it gives extra value for having Chase in the first few weeks rather than trying to snag a star player like him in mid season. It’s also less likely that star players are going to be available on the waiver wire until the end simply because they generally elevate their teams beyond the point of being eliminated. A rare very bad game from Chase is what allowed him to be available in week 2.
A lot of people are going to be eliminated with a lot of money in reserve that they wish they’d have spent.
On the other hand, this strategy if I continue it may make me broke by week 6 or so, and I end up missing out on the relative bargain stars that are available later on, and teams that wisely held onto their money may start dominating at this point.
What’s going to be interesting is that a few star players will likely belong to several eliminated teams, which may mean the same dude ends up getting won over and over again for large amounts of FAAB. That will be kind of funny.
The other two major auctions were not nearly as close. The winner of Devonta Smith paid 3x the second bid. Kyren Williams was a little over double. Chris Olave and Tyler Warren were much closer. I think no one knows what they’re doing yet. That’s fun. I always enjoy competitions more when people have to think about what they’re doing rather than just finding the strategy guides and lists that someone else figured out.