To follow up on my own post, USCDiver and Hawkeye had this exchange about the latter’s list of Boss suspects:
So he’s saying that Darth has claimed? Did I miss it - if so, what did he claim? If not, that’s a big problem for Hawkeyeop.
Hawkeyeop is assuming that if Darth Sensitive were the Boss, the NAF lynch Day would have gone down differently. For some reason he seems to think that someone would do something dramatic like fall on his sword if he saw the Boss up for lynch. Why Hawkeyeop thinks this is a better scum ploy than to simply vote for NAF and get him killed that way is beyond me.
A lynch vote with two very nearly tied candidates is likely to contain one scum and one town.
Reasoning:
Scum have every reason to protect their own. While going out on a limb and overly protecting a scum teammate is bad play, when a lynch is uncertain, scum can vote for the townie without too much fear of reprisal since they will be among many.
However, when a lynch is close, what is the dynamic that makes the lynch so close? Scum trying to save a partner will vote for the Townie with the minimum number of scum needed to assure a Town lynch instead of scum lynch. Therefore, extremely close votes should garner more suspicion.
Historical Evidence:
YSI HazelNutCoffee-Diomedes vote.
others?
Application to current situation (a.k.a. sachertorte’s confirmation bias):
NAF lost the lynch by one vote. Why was the vote so close? The evidence against NAF was super bad, yet he got lynched over Darth Sensitive. Hmmm.
In other news: lt looks to me that Blaster Master is phoning in his play. He’s crazy inconsistent.
- He votes for Millit because he thinks she’s the Boss being protected by a scummy Drain Bead.
- He neglects the case against Darth Sensitive
- He switches his vote from Millit to Pleonast! Completely ignoring Darth Sensitive while simultaneously trying to tie Millit the Frail and Darth Sensitive together as ‘likely Boss’.
Blaster Master, why not vote for Darth Sensitive?
His move seems to telegraph that he wants himself lynched instead of Darth Sensitive. On the other hand, I would think that scummy Blaster Master would vote Darth Sensitive just to confuse the issue after BlaM dies. But I think this falls into the category of too risky. If I put myself in that situation, I see myself doing the same thing as Blaster Master.
I was just thinking along these lines. I think BlaM’s play here of repeatedly suggesting Millit and Darth together as Boss candidates is clever, assuming he is recruited scum and Darth is the Boss. Let me see if I can explain this clearly: He doesn’t want to focus too much on Darth, because when he (BlaM) is revealed as scum, everyone is going to look back at his posts with ScumGoggles. If he goes after Darth too hard, everyone will think: “BlaM was being tricky experienced scum and going after Darth so that we would then dismiss the case against Darth when BlaM turns up scum.”
So he groups them together, diluting the effect, and making his accusations muddy. It’s kind of like a triple-cross, with a side of WIFOM. Bah, I don’t think I’m explaining it well. It made sense in my head. :o
Me too, particularly given the low numbers of scum.
I think the off-board game has discovered a very good schedule for these games. They are on a fixed one week schedule too, but Night is the weekend. I think this is superior to the Night = Tues-Thurs setup because it doesn’t break up the Day into two smaller chunks that lose all momentum during the weekend.
Today’s chatter has been quite boring.
I guess they are going to end up lynching Blaster Master, which is totally stupid. I understand it, but it will end up hurting the Town more than helping, I think.
I think you’re right about the set-up.
The Blaster lynch is not great on paper, but it’s not too bad given who he is. He’s a formidable player, so there is some benefit to taking him out just to keep his obfuscations off the board and his brain out of the scum hive. If we were talking about buftabby or some other newb, I would agree that it is totally stupid. But given that it’s him, I wouldn’t go that far.
(There’s also something to be said psychologically for lynching the first scum - it’s very satisfying and can lead to increased vigor on the part of the Town).
ISTM the way Blaster Master is posting…he seems trapped in a corner, insulting anyone who dares to vote for him and screaming for anyone else to be lynched first. It SCREAMS scummy.
But that’s what I thought about Brewha too.
If BlaM is lynched, at least they know to ignore his logic…I mean, arguing over a bredcrumb?! If he stays, he’ll keep confusing the town.
GO TOWN!!!
On preview–what ShadowFacts said.
subs are apparently needed in the batman game. PM Diomedes for info. It was supposed to be quick and bloody, yet seems to be neither at this stage. The mods can’t do their jobs so I do it for them. OK I joke, Dio. Now I will be modkilled.
MHaye and sinjin are really pushing the trap that evidence needs to be 100% before acting. They seem to want to an engraved invitation from the Boss to lynch him before acting. I find this suspicious.
For MHaye, I had recruited suspicions from this stance on NAF. I would need to check, but I’m under the impression that MHaye followed the “need to lynch the Boss first” line of thought at least through Day Three. His willingness to vote for NAF (who he stated was not likely the Boss) and now Blaster Master (who is also clearly not the Boss) confirm my suspicions.
Furthermore, this odd behavior lends strong suspicion on Darth Sensitive being the Boss.
Boss: Darth Sensitive
Recruit #1: Blaster Master
Recruit #2: MHaye
Recruit #3: ?
No, for a Vanilla townie self preservation is scummy. I hope you don’t really believe this BlaM. Vanilla town’s job is to die willingly.
Well Blaster Master’s self vote should at the very least placate Hawkeyeop into finally voting for Darth Sensitive. Geez. He obviously self voted to protect Darth Sensitive.
The real shitter is HazelNutCoffee’s situation.
She is getting recruited tonight.
And with all her good game play in rooting out the Boss DAYS ago, she’s handed the Town the win and herself the Loss. All because of her good play and Town’s bad play.
This is why recruitment is a bad game design choice.
Why the hell aren’t Drain Gead and Millit switching?
Because the Day is over.
It’s too late, the Day is over.
I’m not convinced that Darth is the Boss. If Darth was lynched, Millit would be next on the block, wouldn’t she? So Millit would recruit toNight, die toMorrow and BLaM would be lynched the next Day. This way, Millit gets two more recruit attempts before she dies, which would leave the scum in a better position.
This game is frustrating to watch. I bet it would be even more frustrating to play. I mean, why lynch Blaster Master? It makes no sense at all! Town is really playing badly, yet they are going to win.
Tomorrow they have to lynch Darth Sensitive. If they do anything else… I don’t know what I’ll do with myself. I just couldn’t take it. They finally have their engraved invitation!
At least I can get warm fuzzies from being right about Darth Sensitive and being right about the game being stacked against scum. Though, one run-through really isn’t enough evidence to prove anything.
Darth Sensitive is clearly the Boss. I cleared all doubt when NAF died, but even more evidence is that Blaster Master would not have self-voted otherwise. Given the choice between lynching Town and lynching scum, scum will lynch Town.
If Darth Sensitive died and came up Town, then the shift would go to those pushing for his lynch. Maybe Millit the Frail would get some heat, but I don’t really see it. How did Millit the Frail even come into the picture? Blaster Master was the main entity pushing Millit into the spotlight. Some players were buying it, but critical analysis shows that Millit is a non-entity. Blaster Master asserted that Millit was in danger of being lynched Yesterday. Is this really true? I don’t remember precisely what happened, but my recollection is no.
Darth Sensitive being the Boss explains Blaster Master’s actions all Day… and Yesterday. The explanation is simple and direct, no convoluted plans.
Lynching a Townie Darth Sensitive would be much better for scum, than lynching Blaster Master. Simply having Blaster Master confuse the issue (More Millit) would be good for Town. The Millit thing is a total scum fabrication; the weird thing is some Town are buying what Blaster Master is selling. And seeing other townies buy into it, Millit came to the forefront. Quite fascinating actually.
What? Me, propose convoluted theories? Surely you must be joking. 
Now, now, we don’t know the result yet. My count shows a tie b/w Blaster and Darth, so there is a 50/50 chance of Darth dying and therefore no more recruitment. And even if Blaster goes, there is a chance Hazel is a mason, Priest (unlikely, I admit), or could be protected by the Doctor. (I actually think she has an investigative role, Beat Cop or Police Chief).
I think Blaster misplayed the end with his self-vote. You are correct that it is completely obvious now that he is scum and Darth is the Boss, thus dooming them both whichever one dies.