I believe I understand where you are coming from, sach. I personally have a hard time reducing the complexities of a game like this to numbers (my mind doesn’t work well that way :o ), so it’s interesting for me to try to puzzle it out.
On another note, not a lot of voting in with 24 hours left to go (big surprise there!). **Menocchio’s **vote on **Drain Bead **seems like a blatantly obvious “get someone else in the lead since no one else is following my **Hawkeye **vote” vote. Not that that is necessarily scummy, mind you, but I think he’s feeling the heat a little given how sparse the commentary is and how everyone is spreading their votes out right now.
If I were playing, I would probably be on the **Hal Briston **wagon by now, because I love putting pressure on lurkers.
Have fun (not that you’re reading this thread anymore).
I’m currently intrigued by NAF’s list. It’s a bit long for my taste and forecasting into the future is troublesome at best, but essentially I agree with NAF. Everyone should be stating RIGHT NOW who they think might have been recruited Night One and Night Two. Not that they end up lynching these people, but just keeping a record of peoples’ mindset is an important piece of information.
Plus, I think stating that NAF suspects scum will recruit experienced players is a good way to make scum think twice about recruiting experienced players. Which is good for Town.
However, if the Boss isn’t on NAF’s list, then NAF is doing the Boss a favor by asking the Vig to target these players and not the Boss. I don’t think NAF is doing such a thing to be scummy, it’s just a consequence of his actions so far. It’s Phase One people! Look for the Boss, don’t concern yourselves about recruits.
Menocchio is correct in pointing out how incredibly bad the Town is playing. Half the Town sat on their vote all DAY. I suppose it doesn’t help that the Weekend plops in mid-day, so nothing happens until the last day and a half (Monday and half of Tuesday). That’s probably the most anti-town aspect of the game right now.
Town absolutely needs to get moving on Thursday and Friday, before the weekend. Unfortunately, everyone will “re-read the thread” on those days and not get enough out in the open.
I still think the setup is skewed pro-town, but the way Town is playing, they certainly are intent on making it easier for scum.
I think HazelNutCoffee is on the right track. I like her list:
dotchan
chrisk
Santo Rugger
Hawkeyeop
Darth Sensitive
OneCentStamp
Not so much as lurkers, but people who have kept their noses clean. She’s played scum a few times now, so she knows the scummy tendency is to not be controversial in any way shape or form.
I’d give passes to dotchan and Santo Rugger. dotchan had that weird statement about the off-board game which I don’t see scum posting as I think scum like to give vague reasons for not posting rather than specific ones. Santo Rugger’s absence is unusual for him, but he certainly doesn’t have a tendency to duck when he’s scum (though with recruitment {Boss} he might act differently).
So I’d probably follow HazelNutCoffee on the OneCentStamp lynch. Though I’d be content with a chrisk, Hawkeyeop, or Darth Sensitive lynch too. Probably Hawkeyeop for bad meta-game reasons (endgame survivor of YST).
Lynch and Vig these people! Not the “suspicious” ones!
What a frikkin’ mess! I cannot believe Mennochio claimed Doctor that soon. Terrible move, IMO, if he really is the Doctor. (And he probably is, given the lack of counter-claim).
I think Menocchio was put in a bad situation. The timing was not ideal, but not his fault. He claimed because he felt the wagon was heading his direction and he wouldn’t be around to claim later. He has not posted since his claim, which is precisely why Menocchio is correct about people getting votes in earlier and not waiting until the end of the Day. Menocchio needed to make a claim or not-claim decision based on incomplete data. I think he did the right thing.
I disagree with Blaster Master. I’ve already stated that I agree with HazelNutCoffee so that shouldn’t be a surprise. I’d go after the people on her list because they’ve kept their nose clean. Lurking is a way to keep ones nose clean, but its not the only way. And that list is a bunch of people who have kept suspicion off themselves. Which is precisely what scum want. Townies don’t care if people suspect them, they expect it. Scum avoid suspicion as much as possible.
It’s almost like a political campaign, but instead of tossing out political buzzwords like “9/11” or “family values” we castigate something by calling it a “lynch the lurker” plan thereby making it “bad” without actually discussing the meat of the idea or issue:
lynching a lurker is a good idea, and
lurkers just happen to fall into the set of clean-nosers, and
regarding the continuum of games, we as a group need to drive the message that keeping townies keeping oneself clean is BAD BAD BAD. Unfortunately, the CapnPitt lynch merely encourages such town behavior.
In fact, if I were HazelNutCoffee, I’d point out the CapnPitt issue as the precise reason why voting for someone who hasn’t stuck their neck out makes sense.
You’ll not find anyone who more vehemently supports early voting than me. I tried to get a system for early voting going in The Conspiracy, but I couldn’t get enough people behind it.
You’re right that it was bad timing for Menocchio, but I still think it was early. It’s too bad he couldn’t have waited a little longer to see what the reaction to Hal’s claim was. Oh well.
The ironic thing about The Conspiracy game is that our unintentional bad play turned out to be pretty good for us. The Conspiracy had a weird information inversion setup where perfect information a priori benefits scum far more than Town.
I’m pretty sure that’s not the case in this game though.
We had two claims on Day One and one fake claim who got lynched.
On Day Two we had one claim and ended up lynching a Mason, which is the weakest role in that game. Most importantly, we avoided unnecessary additional claims.
Day Three was a secret information driven lynch that ended up lynching scum because the witches found scum and were able to pull off a lynch without a claim.
Everything after Day Three was fully information driven.
With unlimited recruitment, Town will not be able to rely on power-role information to guide their lynch choices. On the other hand, Town doesn’t need to kill 10 scum (no vig) either. Drain Bead’s roleclaim has me wondering.
Again, the irony is that my play in The Conspiracy pretty much set the table for power roles withholding information from the Town, but something about Drain Bead’s ‘I’m not going to tell you what I found on Night Two, but I breadcrumbed it.’ statement really bothers me. Town seems to be taking this to mean that Drain Bead found a power role and didn’t want to expose the role, but just stating “Town” would have been sufficient.
At first I thought maybe she found a Mason and didn’t feel the need to reveal since Masons can roleclaim and save themself from lynch. But this theory doesn’t dovetail with Drain Bead breadcrumbing the information. Actually, nothing really pops out to me as a reason to breadcrumb the info at all.
My theory is that Drain Bead was recruited on Night Two and has not yet been given the opportunity access the scum boards. I think Detectives retain their powers, which is problematic for my theory as that necessitates that Drain Bead investigated scum on Night Two and that’s why she’s information starved. Occam would not be proud, as this scenario is needlessly complex. It’s probably a bad theory, but one to consider none-the-less since Drain Bead’s willingness to confirm hotflungwok contrasts sharply with the information withholding for the Night Two investigation. Perhaps there is a reason, but if anyone ever wants to play the hold back information card, you need to be consistent. Why is she treating hotflungwok differently than the Night Two investigatee? Something needs resolving there.
You see, I used my secret power to investigate fluiddruid that Night and the results were to be PM’ed back to me. Then the vampire killed me that night. However, beforehand we witches had worked out that I would encode my results in my first post of the Day, by starting it with W for Wolf, T for Town, etc. When I saw that I’d been killed, I posted my goodbye post without thinking. I hadn’t even received the investigation result. By total chance I started my goodbye post with the word “Well”, and Dio and BlaM seized on that and pushed the lynch through. So in reality it wasn’t an information-driven lynch – it was total luck.
That’s funny. I didn’t know that tidbit.
I do recall being flabbergasted by the fluiddruid lynch. I had no idea where it came from at the time. I felt much better when I found out it was witch-driven though.
As for the last minute thing, it’s pretty standard when the lynch conditions are “top vote getter at X time.”
When the condition is lynch immediately when a majority is reached, Town tends to (but not always) gets a consensus before the deadline. (Then they twiddle away the rest of the day because for some reason we think artificially extending the day to the maximum alloted time is “pro-town.”
I’d say that Today’s lynch is remarkably similar to The Conspiracy’s Day Two lynch. Similar result in netting a vanilla townie, which is a good consolation prize for Town.
Ah, I didn’t realize there could be different lynch rules. That’s why some are saying vote early and vote often since it doesn’t trigger a lynch. Never thought of that rule before.
Wish I wasn’t such a spoiler hound. First time I ever paid attention to this game and wow I’m hooked. Hope when I get a chance to play it’s just as interesting as a player as it is as a spectator.
Wish I wasn’t such a spoiler hound. First time I ever paid attention to this game and wow I’m hooked. Hope when I get a chance to play it’s just as interesting as a player as it is as a spectator.