I seem to recall that the Alchemist can mix up a Block All Other Night Actions potion, would that be it?
I have NO idea what to make of the conflicting Monk role-claims. Who to believe?
Well, I feel a bit stupid because I still can’t see it. If MHaye is lying then either the real Apprentice is drunker than zuma, or MHaye was recruited on Night 6. Recruiting MHaye and finding that he was the Apprentice could explain the demise of the Priest on Night 7, but he seems an unlikely recruit as he was under great suspicion.
In addition, if MHaye, sachertorte and Cookies are all false claiming then they are giving up 3 Cultists, including their recruit. This seems an awfully high price to pay - even if they only need 1 more town dunk to win, this looks like an incredibly risky way to do it.
Why are the Cultists so anxious to flush out the Monks?
The suspense is terrible. I hope it lasts.
My guess it that they’re flushing out the monks because they HAVEN’T recruited yet. It only makes sense.
Yeah, I guess you’re right about that. But given this fact, why has no one in the town twigged to the obvious - if they’ve already recruited mhaye, they have no need to flush out the Monks. If they haven’t recruited mhaye then that must mean…
Honestly, I think the problem is that the town has had so many frustrating setbacks - losing the Oracle and Crusader out of the blue early, before either could make any kind of impact (well, other than killing one of their Monks, in the case of the latter), the sudden death of the priest, the rash of mislynches - that they’re really eager for a simple, neat solution. They want to believe that the recruitment has already happened, and that they’ve uncovered the recruit and two of his scum compatriots, that the scum have come out and gift-wrapped this whole thing.
Ignoring the fact that this would be an amazingly stupid scum play. If you recruit someone, it would seem like your first priority would be to keep him incognito. You want to hide your recruit, because he can frustrate the Apprentice, he has a record of genuine pro-town behavior on which to fall back. You don’t want to develop a plan in which your recruit is going to be quickly and easily outed.
Really, what benefit would it be to the scum to have two of their own false claim Monk, and have their hypothetical recruit *blow his own cover *by backing them up? All this, just to - what? - have a 50% chance of getting one Monk lynched? It’s an incredibly convoluted plan, that would have had to be put in motion ages ago, and for a benefit that simply isn’t worth losing three scum. It doesn’t make sense.
I can’t believe people are saying that the “safest” play is lynching sachertorte. No. The safest play is to go along with your Apprentice. If he turns out to be lying, and Idle Thoughts is a Monk, then go in the other direction. Augh! What is up with these people?
And breadcrumbs? Really? You’re asking the Monks for breadcrumbs? Why would the Monks want to breadcrumb their associations with one another? So that when one of them gets killed, the scum can nail the others? The Monks should be assiduously avoiding breadcrumbs, which ought to be another nail in Idle Thoughts’ coffin.
Double augh!
Yeah. Seems to me that the one big mistake during this Day is that, actually, zuma’s “drunken post” actually contradicts Idle’s claim (that they are monks).
After all, what evidence would a Monk have that the Apprentice has been lying?
And, story, you are referring to the mysterious powers of the Martyr, aren’t you?
This is true.
I am, yes.
Sadly, we’re not in the game anymore…
I know. I know. I’m sorry. 
They could, hypothetically, still pull this out. sachertorte’s most recent post says basically the same thing I just said - that Idle’s theory is so convoluted and requires so many things to have fallen correctly that it is much safer to go with the more likely option first.
Other than the ones who have essentially outed themselves with this action, I know of - I think - two remaining scum. The town has what I consider to be an excellent lead on one of them that it is ignoring but may not ignore forever, and another seems to me to be trying a bit too hard to spin the events of toDay in a pro-scum direction. If the town makes the right choice here, and if mhaye, Pleonast, Catinasuit, and hockey monkey use their various powers intelligently over the course of the next few Days, the town has an excellent chance of winning this game. Remember, those four are all confirmed pro-town, in essence; add the two Monks to that and you have six, which is enough to pretty much hammer down every unconfirmed player in the game, with investigation results a supplemental resource.
Which reminds me - did mhaye reveal any results toDay?
We’ll see.
Yep. Investigation of Queuing, no results.
What really bothers me is that Catinasuit leaves out the possibility of scum recruitment toNight in his/her consequence lists. That changes the calculus significantly.
Augh. Today is a big tipping point, because if they haven’t converted and they can, they’re going to get MHaye tonight.
What’s bothering me is that people are advocating voting based not on “who do you think is scum?” but on “who would it be advantageous to find out was scum?”. It’s the same over-analysis we did all game, but from the outside it’s much more obvious. (And frustrating!)
I’ve got to hand it to Idle, though. Without anyone to back him up he has single-handedly managed to turn the tide against sachertorte.
Think about it:
- sachertorte’s claim is backed by MHaye (he investigated him and he came back Monk)
- Cookies backs sachertorte’s claim and vice-versa
- zuma’s drunken claim, like I said before, actually contradicts his pal’s (Idle)
And still… people are voting against sachertorte?
Not just people. Townies.
It’s amazing.
Problem is, I’m willing to bet that many of my scum picks were right all along–I’m watching who’s driving this discussion which ways, and my only hope is that the town is too.
It really seems like Idle’s resting on the strength of a lot of ongoing suspicion of Sach and MHaye, bolstered by his own play to put the ice on Kat early in the game. I fully credit him with enough foresight to have traded a scum for the chance to pull something like this off in the endgame.
Sorry, but which are your scum picks?
I remember you felt I was scum.
On my part, I’m pretty convinced **Idle **and **zuma **are scum. As well as Kyrie. Other than that, who knows? But I’m growing convinced **FCoD **is scum, hidden as a Believer.
And I’m almost certain there hasn’t been a recruitment. It may happen toNight, though. With the monks out and the Disciple’s resources tied up, there almost certainly will be recruitment.
A lot of ones I let convince me instead of going with my gut–specifically, NAF, Kyrie, and Pygmy.
I agree with you on the recruitment. That’ll muddy the waters like madness.
Also, Idle’s constant flipping his shit is arguably the most entertaining portion of the game thus far, regardless of what side he’s on.
I’d have to agree with you on that last point, Zeriel. It was horribly annoying in-game though (M4). But as a spectator it’s really funny.
And I wonder how zuma will explain his early MOrning posts. HockeyMonkey seems to be catching on.
I have to agree with Zeriel – Idle’s flipping out is far more fun to watch than my own flip-out was.
I think there’s three possibilities.
- MHaye is telling the truth about his investigations; the Cultists are trying to discredit him to save their own necks.
- MHaye was recruited, and is lying like crazy about his investigations; the Cultists are fighting off a last-ditch surge by the Town.
- The real apprentice is making a big mistake by not unmasking MHaye.
I’m inclined to think the town’s in case 1.